Confusion reigns over Polish ratification of EU treaty

BRUSSELS - An official close to Polish President Lech Kaczynski has said he will sign the Lisbon Treaty on Sunday (11 October). But a presidential aide has indicated that the date is not yet fixed.

"The president is keeping his word. He said several times that if the Irish say Yes in a second referendum, his decision will be positive," Mr Kaczynski's homeland security chief, Aleksander Szczyglo, said on Polish TV on Thursday morning.

The signature of the Ratification Act will take place early on Sunday evening at the Presidential Palace or at his private residence, he added.

The move would bring some relief to Brussels, where EU officials are waiting for Warsaw and Prague to ink the treaty so they can get on with filling the senior posts envisaged by the text.

The Sunday night fixture was immediately put in doubt by a presidential aide, Pawel Wypych, however, who said on Polish radio within minutes of Mr Szczyglo's TV appearance that:

"The president will ratify the treaty in the coming few days."

"You should listen to what Mr Wypych said. He didn't confirm that anything would happen on Sunday. He just said 'in the next few days.' The president himself has confirmed nothing," a press officer in President Kaczynski's office told EUobserver.

The merry-go-round on Mr Kaczynski's intentions began in July last year when he surprised Europe by saying he would not ratify Lisbon unless Ireland said Yes, despite having himself negotiated and signed the treaty in 2007.

He later promised to ratify it in a matter of days after the second Irish referendum. But his chief of staff, Wladyslaw Stasiak, again caused surprise on Monday by saying he is in "no hurry" to wrap up the process.

Polish analysts say the president is keen to make his political adversary, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, look even weaker at a time of crisis, with Mr Tusk this week forced to sack a bushel of ministers in a gambling industry corruption affair.

"He [Mr Kaczynski] is trying to show how powerful he is. By withholding his signature he shows that the government cannot move forward on major issues without his say-so," the head of the Warsaw-based demosEUROPA think-tank, Pawel Swieboda, told this website.

"It's part of the election campaign," he said, in reference to Poland's upcoming presidential race.

Mr Swieboda explained that, in terms of legal theory, the Polish State Tribunal could suspend Mr Kaczynski's mandate on grounds that he has exceeded his competencies by refusing to ratify a treaty which was approved by parliament.

Nobody in Warsaw is considering pulling out the "big gun" for now, he added.

A group of Czech social democrat senators in Prague back in June began legal preparations for a similar move against Czech President Vaclav Klaus if he declines to ratify the treaty against all odds.