Bird flu could hurt world economy, IMF warns
MARK BEUNDERMAN
14.03.2006 @ 09:46 CET
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Governments are not sufficiently prepared for a possible human pandemic of the H5N1 bird flu strain which could deal a serious blow to the world economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.
In a study revealed on Monday (13 March), the IMF said "if the pandemic is severe, the economic impact is likely to be significant."
Globalisation means that a pandemic could spread quickly the IMF says (Photo: European Community, 2005)
Bird flu has killed at least 98 people in Asia and Turkey, according to World Health Organisation (WHO) figures, with three more human deaths recently confirmed in Azerbaijan El Pais writes.
The IMF study points to likely absenteeism in the work place as well as disruptions in trade and payments in the event of a global pandemic of the H5N1 bird flu strain.
If a global human pandemic breaks out "economic disruptions on the supply side would come directly from high absenteeism, as people may be asked to stay at home, or may choose to do so to care for sick relatives or because of fear of being exposed themselves," said the IMF.
The top financial body added that there may also be "disruptions to transportation, trade, payment systems, and major utilities."
"Moreover, demand could contract sharply, with consumer spending falling and investment being put on hold," according to the report.
The IMF researchers stress that predictions are based on a "high degree of uncertainty" referring, among others, to WHO reports indicating that accurate predictions of a pandemic’s scope cannot be made before a virus emerges and begins to spread.
Nevertheless the IMF states on the basis of WHO information that "because of high global mobility and interconnection, illness could spread quickly, and, if the virus has a high fatality rate, threaten millions of lives around the world."
The monetary fund notes that levels of economic and financial preparedness are not satisfactory in most of its 184 member states.
"Perhaps because an avian flu pandemic may appear to be a low-probability event, albeit one with high potential costs, many countries are only starting to develop a comprehensive approach to this threat," the fund said.
The highly pathogenic H5N1 virus has so far been found with birds and other animals in nine EU member states - Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden.
A German suspected case of bird flu at a poultry farm in Bavaria proved a false alarm according to test results on Monday evening (13 March).
