Brussels gives moral support to Minsk protesters

"I am confident that the people of Belarus see this outstretched hand as an opportunity to choose a democratic future, and I very much hope that the government of Belarus will reciprocate, beginning the reforms their people need and ending their self-imposed isolation," the commission president went on. "I look forward to the day when Belarus takes its rightful place in a European family."

His statement comes the same weekend EU leaders gather in Berlin to celebrate 50 years of EU integration, with the text of the so-called Berlin Declaration talking about the "love of freedom" in eastern Europe and 2004 enlargement as the end of an "unnatural division of Europe," citing "human dignity" and "democracy" as key EU values.

The Minsk anniversary looks back to less happy events. On a freezing cold March 25, 2006, Lukashenko's riot police swooped down on crowds in city streets, lashing students and women with rubber batons and bundling off at least 400 people to jail. Some, such as senior dissident Aleksander Kozulin, remain behind bars today.

Western diplomats stationed in Minsk do not expect violence this Sunday, unless people in October Square start to march toward government buildings. But the atmosphere is uneasy, with local NGOs reporting increased stop-and-search harassment in the city centre, fresh arrests of known activists and threats that students will be expelled from school if they attend the rally.

Both the German EU presidency and the US state department on Friday urged Belarus to cease "ongoing intimidation," let people "exercise their right to assemble peacefully" and asked "security forces [to] exercise restraint." The German ambassador to Belarus, Martin Hekker, has promised to attend the event in person to keep an eye on things.

The Sunday gathering comes amid a tentative new EU-Belarus dialogue that saw EU officials meet on 8 March in Minsk with Belarus foreign minister Sergei Martynov to see if Europe's "last dictatorship" is serious about talk of reform. The new atmosphere follows Moscow's $1.8 billion a year increase in Belarus energy prices in January to punish Minsk for resisting state union with Russia.

Analysts such as the Bratislava-based Pontis Foundation say Lukashenko's talk of a new alliance with the EU is just a negotiation tactic to get Russia to roll back its price hikes, however. On Friday, Russian prime minister Mikhail Fradkov said Russia is willing to consider granting Belarus a $1.5 billion stabilisation loan, Ria Novosti reports.

Lukashenko himself is not seen as a credible partner by the west, with US diplomat David Kramer this week telling EUobserver that "if the past 10 years are any indication, I would have to say 'no'" on the likelihood of the 53-year old changing his spots. The prospect the president might kick-start changes that could end in him facing trial or having to flee to Venezuela is unrealistic.

Denim revolution unlikely

In structural terms, Belarus is not ready to split with Russia. The EU has no energy interconnectors in place to supply electricity to Belarus if Russia turns off its oil and gas. The Belarusian economy relies on Russian tractor, TV and arms contracts. Its eastern border with Russia is fuzzy with no proper customs controls in place.

A peaceful "denim revolution" is also unlikely, with the opposition camp unable to get big numbers out on the streets and facing internal rifts of its own. "Only when we get 400,000 people on the streets of Minsk...can we expect change," prominent pro-democracy campaigner Aleksander Milinkevich told AP ahead of Sunday's rally.

EU states Poland and Lithuania are themselves wary of promoting sudden political transformation next door in a move that could split Belarusian society, which contains over 1 million Russians and 400,000 Poles. The risk of political instability and refugees in a neighbouring country numbering 10 million people is a factor in Warsaw and Vilnius' policy making on Minsk.

But the status quo or the worst case scenario of annexation by Russia are also repugnant to Europe in the complex problem that is Belarus. "We are ready to sacrifice our health, our well-being and if necessary, our lives," Mr Milinkevich said in a speech in Strasbourg last December. "We are doing it for our children - the same as French, Lithuanian or Polish children they are entitled to live in freedom."