[Comment] The escalating problem in the eastern Mediterranean

PETER SAIN LEY BERRY

15.12.2006 @ 08:09 CET

EUOBSERVER / COMMENT - Despite one of its formal tasks being the admission of Romania and Bulgaria to the Union, it is doubtful whether this week's summit of European leaders, meeting as the European Council, will be remembered for very long. Though it marks the culmination of the Finnish Presidency, this is not the sort of summit for which citizens will interrupt their daily tasks and tune in for the latest update to the European agenda; though it won't be the first Council to share this fate.

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In the past I have suggested that flummery might help revive citizens' interest in such events. Behold, flummery is what we have this year in Brussels. To commemorate the completion of the fifth round of enlargement a giant gingerbread and marzipan offering, nine square metres in extent, has been baked in the shape of the European Union map. The final pieces, representing Bulgaria and Romania, will be slotted in with due ceremony on Thursday. At least that is the proposal. What happens if it rains is not explained.

The spirit of idealism

As it happens I attended a reception the other day at which the Bulgarian Minister Plenipotentiary and the Romanian Chargé to the UK were present. They spoke with an enthusiasm about the reunification of the European family that was reminiscent of popular feeling in the west of our continent forty years ago. Such feeling has long since been discounted here; the advantages of the European construction taken for granted. It was good to hear the spirit of idealism again: the voice from the heart, as it were.

Nevertheless enthusiasm can be over done. Over enthusiasm in the past has lead us into enlargement and other aspects of the European construction before first securing the foundations, whether in terms of the institutions and government machinery required or, equally important, the popular will.

We thus now face severe problems in connection with future enlargement strategy - one of this Council's main agenda topics - and its internal concomitant, institutional reform.

Indeed one specific aspect now threatens to undermine the efforts of the German Presidency that begins on 1 January. It is, of course, the problem of Turkey and Cyprus.

The 'and Cyprus' bit is important. Cyprus is a divided island. Not all of Cyprus is in the EU. Indeed the EU does not trade with - or even recognise - a third of the island.

And therein lies the problem.

Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 to secure the rights of the citizens living mainly in the Turkish speaking north. These appeared threatened by political developments in Greece. The invasion was held to be illegal by the international community and the so-called Republic of Northern Cyprus became a phantom state recognised by no-one except Turkey.

The United Nations made extensive efforts over many years to find a formula that might allow reunification of the island. Eventually, with the prospect of adhesion to the EU, that elusive formula was discovered. A referendum in both parts of the island followed.

Few people anywhere anticipated the possibility of a negative result. Not wishing to appear to put pressure on the settlement of an internal matter, and confident anyway of a 'yes' vote, European leaders told the Government of Cyprus that the referendum would not affect their forthcoming accession.

Knowing a bargain when they saw one, the south of the island duly voted against reunification and joined the EU leaving their Turkish co-islanders (who had voted 'yes') swinging in the breeze, a position in which they uncomfortably remain.

Turkey does not recognise the Government of Cyprus and so keeps its ports closed to shipping and air cargoes from the southern part of the island. For its part the EU refuses to recognise and trade with the north. Whenever it shows signs of wobbling on this position the Government of Cyprus begins talking about the veto.

For refusing to open its ports, Turkey is now being penalised by the Union. The EU has pulled stumps, for the time being, on eight out of thirty-five chapters of the accession agenda: a penalty deemed by some to be over harsh and by others as supine.

Problem spill over

If this matter concerned only the Turkish negotiations, the problem would be contained and localised. But it doesn't. The problem now is that the issue of 'what to do about Turkey' is starting to spill over into domestic EU councils.

There are plenty of member states hostile to Turkey's membership of the Union. These, including France and Austria, only agreed to let accession negotiations commence on the basis that, if they didn't fail outright, they would probably last fifteen or twenty years. Even if they got this far, they reasoned, the accession could probably be diluted anyway into a lesser 'Privileged Partnership.'

Other states, including Britain, believe that Turkey's rapid adhesion is of vital strategic interest to Europe's relations with the wider world. The European Commission, or at least Mr Olli Rehn, the enlargement commissioner, agrees.

Despite having its wrist slapped, Turkey is not going to shift its position without some reciprocal movement by the EU on Northern Cyprus. The Turkish Prime Minister Mr Recip Erdogan reiterated this point just this week. The Government of Cyprus has taken a similarly hard line. Stalemate.

A new crisis over the Turkish negotiations is therefore likely before very long and risks rupturing the uneasy compromises reached between EU member states. Moreover, the parties to the German grand coalition over which Mrs Merkel presides are split over eventual Turkish membership. The threat thus goes to the heart of the next Presidency government.

For all these reasons a solution to the question of Turkey and Cyprus is long overdue. The final answer has to lie in the reunification of the island - for which the UN is needed. Turkey again implored the UN to assist this week.

Kofi Annan, is stepping down as Secretary-General after the completion of his term. Despite spearheading operations, a reunited Cyprus was a feather he never got to stick in his cap. Perhaps he can be persuaded to dust off his files.

The author is editor of EuropaWorld