New EU 'consensus' over enlargement highly fragile
The new "consensus" on enlargement agreed by EU leaders constitutes a delicate compromise between pro-enlargement member states and those weary of further expansion, with political rifts set to re-emerge soon over Turkey and the Balkans.
Summit conclusions agreed on Friday (15 December) are the result of a long and delicate EU debate on the size and nature of the union, sparked not least by the negative outcome of the 2005 referenda on the EU constitution in France and the Netherlands in which enlargement blues among citizens was seen as playing a large role.
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Significantly, the text confirms the bloc's existing enlargement plans with Turkey and with Western Balkan countries. "The future of the Western Balkans lies in the European Union," it says, with foreign ministers earlier deciding to continue formal membership talks with Turkey despite its defiant stance on the Cyprus issue.
But the conclusions also put stronger hurdles before EU aspirants, notably by highlighting the union's own "capacity to absorb new members" in terms of internal decision-making and finances.
EU leaders did not go so far as to demand a deal on a new treaty for the union before Croatia - the next member in line - can join, as proposed by European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso but accession negotiations have been made harder than for any of the previous EU entrants.
Friday's text says that difficult issues such as justice matters and corruption will need to be tackled at an early stage and that no membership dates will be given before negotiations are close to completion.
The "renewed consensus" on enlargement, as Mr Barroso termed Friday's deal, constitutes the fragile result of a political battle between those states backing speedy enlargement - such as the UK, Spain, Sweden and central European states - and those which want to reassure citizens that enlargement is not out of control - such as France, Germany and the Netherlands.
Prime minister Matti Vanhanen of Finland, who will hand over the EU presidency to Germany on 1 January, said "We found the way forward. We did not set any new [membership] criteria. The door is still open."
But Ireland's premier Bertie Ahern noted that future enlargement will be "much more difficult", as it will have to take into account public opinion in EU countries.
Concrete rifts over Turkey, Balkans
Despite the agreement on a common text, the real political battles between member states are likely to continue over the concrete bids of EU hopefuls.
UK prime minister Tony Blair, a champion of Turkey's EU membership bid, said that "it is important that we continue the process of accession with Turkey, that we do not shut the door."
But Nicolas Sarkozy, the likely centre-right contender in France's 2007 presidential elections and an opponent of Turkish membership, is to make Turkey a campaign issue, he reportedly told centre-right European colleagues on Thursday just before the summit.
Cyprus and Austria are meanwhile likely to frustrate concrete progress in the opening and closing of negotiating chapters, with German chancellor Angela Merkel saying she expects "possibly two" chapters to be opened during the German presidency.
France will be a key uncertain factor for Western Balkan states, as it has enshrined in its constitution that it will hold referendums on the accession of every single member state after Croatia.
"This is a political choice by France...from Croatia onwards, enlargements will be ratified by referendum," said French president Chirac.
Mr Chirac however reassured the first potential referendum victim - Macedonia - that the small country will "not be a problem for public opinion," as it is a "sympathetic country."
Enlargement to the east?
Concrete EU division over the Balkans already emerged at the summit itself, with Italian prime minister Romano Prodi pressing for a more welcoming EU stance on Serbia in particular - in order to avert nationalist gains in January elections in the country, as well as to compensate Belgrade for possible independence of Kosovo.
This call was however rejected by countries such as the Netherlands who maintained that pre-accession talks cannot be resumed with the Serbs before they hand over war crimes suspect Ratko Mladic to the UN tribunal in The Hague.
Poland, meanwhile, is set to stay relatively isolated in pressing for an even further expansion of the EU's borders, with its president Lech Kaczynski stating "If the Western Balkans are to receive a European perspective, we should not decline to give one to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia."