17.01.2007 @ 17:32 CET
EUOBSERVER / COMMENT - Despite all doubts about its readiness and the restrictions placed on the movement of labour, Bulgaria is finally a member of the European Union. We can now stop wondering about whether or not Bulgaria complies with pre-accession requirements and start looking ahead.
Many enlargement sceptics think that Bulgaria's membership is a mistake. Others believe that Bulgaria has earned its place at the table - Bulgarians feel proud of their ethnic tolerance and for saving Jews in the Second World War, the country was an island of calm during the Balkan upheavals in the 1990s, and it has shown an impressive recent record of budgetary control and strong economic growth for almost a decade now.
But there is another benefit that Bulgaria's EU membership brings - and that is a closer understanding of the social, economic and demographic issues that confront Turkey in its aim to join the EU.
The future place of Turkey in Europe is by no means clear. In the run-up to the French presidential elections nobody is expecting a calm debate on the further enlargement of the Union. Sarkozy indeed started his campaign by once again stressing his position that Turkey does not have a place in Europe.
On the other hand, to boost support for Turkish membership in the EU, a government in Ankara with a secure mandate could soften a notch its position on Cyprus, accelerate its privatisation programme which is unlikely to move forward before elections and make some concessions towards political representation of the Kurdish minority, women's participation in education and employment, foreign investment and even historical controversy such as the Armenian genocide.
On the security side, continuing tension in the Middle East and Europe's problems with Islamic terrorism at home will strengthen the arguments for integrating a Muslim, if secular, state into the Union.
Turkish minority
What has all this got to do with Bulgaria?
Bulgaria could be taken as a test case for Turkish membership of the EU. To start with, 10% of the Bulgarian population is Turkish, and these are not German-style guest workers but an indigenous population that has lived there for centuries.
Bulgaria has a Turkish political party, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), which has wielded power as a coalition member with cabinet positions in two Governments since 2001. The current Bulgarian coalition government was in fact formed under the mandate of the MRF.
After the next European Parliament elections, there will be several newly elected MEPs representing indigenous Turkish communities in the European parliament.
Though well represented politically, Bulgaria's Turkish population, like Turkey's, is predominantly rural, poor and heavily involved in the production of tobacco. The more successful members of Bulgaria's Turkish business community are strong in the construction sector and have benefited from public sector contracts over which the Turkish party has influence, feeding the wrath of Bulgaria's new racist nationalist party, Ataka.
Bulgarian experience cannot offer solutions for the Kurdish issue, the Cyprus question or the worries related to the border with Iraq.
There are however many similarities. Bulgaria and Turkey have similar economies - moving out of agricultural dependency, without domestic natural resources, supported by remittances and investment from economic migrants to West.
Many similarities
Bulgaria is about 10 times smaller, but its GDP and GNI per capita are very similar to those of Turkey, as is the economic growth in recent years. (Though Turkey has to still prove that it is capable of sustaining its growth over a longer period of time.) In both countries the unemployment rate is around 10%, female life expectancy is the same, Transparency International's corruption index ranks the countries close together (Bulgaria in 57th and Turkey in 60th place for 2006).
In the 2006 Index of Economic Freedom the two countries score differently (Bulgaria - 64, Turkey - 85), but in terms of government intervention and regulations they have the same score (2.5 and 4 respectively).
Bulgaria is the EU member with the largest and only indigenous Muslim population - 12%, with only France, with around 9%, near this figure. If Turkey becomes a member of the EU then the Muslim population of the EU will become 13-14% - roughly the proportion of the Muslim population in Bulgaria.
It is just possible that having Bulgaria, with its Turkish and Bulgarian Muslim minorities, politically and economically integrated within the European Union might reassure the sceptics about Turkish membership. Or might stiffen their opposition.
Julian Popov is a writer and journalist and a consultant on Eastern Europe based in London. He is Chairman of the Board of the Bulgarian School of Politics which trains senior civil servants and political leaders from the Balkan region.
julianpopov@clara.co.uk
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