Friday

29th Mar 2024

European regions face population drain

Europe's population is ageing and falling, with some regions in eastern Europe set to become almost deserted in coming years. Meanwhile, the EU still shows wide disparity between men and women's pay as well as levels of minimum wage, new studies show.

The overall population of Europe is set to drop from 591 million today to 542 million by 2050, while the proportion of over 65 year-olds will grow from 16 percent to 28 percent, according to a report by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development.

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  • Romania - rural regions in the east have a bleak future (Photo: European Commission)

European women on average have just 1.5 children, compared to 2.5 in Asia and Latin America and 5 in Africa, with a level of 2.1 needed to sustain population figures over the long term.

But the average masks wide differences in European regions, with the UK, France, Ireland and Scandinavia in the 1.8 to over 2.0 scale, while Germany, Spain, Italy and most of eastern Europe are below 1.4.

Based on 24 social and economic indicators, including age trends, job prospects and environmental pollution levels, the survey found that Scandinavia, the UK, the Netherlands, western Germany, Switzerland, Slovenia, Austria and France face the best future in terms of vibrant, economically-successful societies.

But Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Hungary, southern Spain, south Italy and eastern Germany have bleaker prospects, although regions around capital cities such as Bratislava, Prague and Budapest buck the negative eastern European trend.

The "sustainability" or "attractiveness" map of European regions translates into migration flows, which are set to see populations dive by 12 to 18 percent by 2030 in the Baltic states, Ukraine, Belarus and large swathes of rural Bulgaria and Romania as well as remote parts of Poland and east Germany.

"Remote areas no longer have any means to stem outward migration, they are simply drained empty," the German study says.

Minimum wage gulf

The widely differing levels of minimum wage available to workers across the European Union indicates another reason why some eastern European economies continue to suffer outward flows.

While employees in France, Belgium, the Netherlands or Luxembourg can legally take home no less than €1,279 to €1,570 per month, a Bulgarian worker's bottom line is just €92 per month and Polish or Czech employees can count on €247 to €288, a survey by the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions shows.

Average earnings are generally rising much faster in the east than in the west, however. Inflation-adjusted pay went up by 18.3 percent in Latvia last year and 4.4 percent in Poland, while real income shrank by 1.1 percent in France.

Gender gap narrows

Women in the EU on average still earn 15.9 percent less than men, but the gap has been shrinking year by year from 17.5 percent in 2005.

Slovenia, where women tend to earn 93.1 percent of men's wages, is the most egalitarian EU state, with Italy, Spain, Poland and France also scoring high.

But Slovakia is the worst place to work for women on just 73.1 percent parity, while Germany also scores low on 78 percent.

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