Thursday

28th Mar 2024

Opinion

Ukraine dinosaurs seek power at any cost

  • The dinosaurs of the Ukrainian political scene are endangering democracy (Photo: Frank Maurer)

History does not know this for sure, but one may assume that, aware of their imminent end, the dinosaurs were crying and resorted to all kinds of tricks to remain on earth, frightening their fellow creatures. But the changes on earth were inevitable, and no matter how hard these mightiest of beasts resisted, they could not escape their demise.

Today we can see something of the same kind happening on the political planet of Ukraine. This week, an agreement came to light between the two largest parliamentary factions - the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko, the current prime minister, and the Party of the Regions, led by Viktor Yanukovych.

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According to independent experts and Mr Yanukovych himself, talks have been held for a long-time in smoke-filled back-rooms where even the closest confidantes of the leaders were not admitted. The two sides came close to striking a deal several times, but each time the accord collapsed.

What is on the table now? The final agreement concerns no less than a redistribution of Ukraine's entire power structure until 2024, according to Ukraine's well-respected internet publication Ukrainska Pravda. Each of the two leaders is to take the office of either president (supposedly Mr Yanukovych) or prime minister (Ms Tymoshenko). The changes are to be justified by the need to strengthen the state at a time of economic crisis.

The agreement entails large-scale changes to Ukraine's constitution. The president is in future to be elected by parliament where now he or she gains office through a nation-wide vote and is to be awarded additional powers - he or she will appoint the heads of the security service, foreign intelligence and state border service and nominate candidates for general prosecutor and chief of the National Bank. Parliamentary elections are to take place in two rounds and the winner is then awarded an automatic majority. Additionally, parliamentary party leaders are to receive the power to remove MPs who do not vote according to the party line.

The mandate of the present parliament is also to be extended until 2014, with the next general elections to be held the same year, and then subsequently in 2019, 2024 and 2029.

As well as rewriting the constitution, the two factions are allegedly to sign a "Coalition of Unity and Revival" document. A secret appendix will stipulate how the two parties will divide government ministries and an agenda for joint actions until 2024. The two sides will also run as a single bloc in the next elections.

The deal has come together because Ms Tymoshenko and Mr Yanukovych fear losing power. Razmukov Centre polls show that 60.6 percent of people disapprove of the prime minister and 63.9 percent do not like Mr Yanukovych. With disapproval mounting, the pair is running out of time before the next presidential elections, expected in January 2010.

Some see the "hand of Moscow" in the developments - the proposed constitutional changes would seriously encroach on popular rule in Ukraine, making it easier for outside forces to control the country. The move may even be a Russian condition for delivering financial credits to Ukraine. But since such deals are made in secret, one can only speculate.

In the five years since the Orange Revolution, Ukraine has learned to hold free and fair elections but has failed to build an institutional system that protects democracy. The country is corrupt, courts are not independent, there is no real rule of law. The situation helps political leaders think they can make rivers flow backwards, that they can reverse the country's direction and return to its undemocratic past.

If the this plan is implemented, Ukraine would take a hefty lurch away from the EU and the wider international community. It would also demonstrate to its neighbours how easily a country can be led astray from its path of democratic transformation, despite earlier struggle to make progress.

Ukraine's leaders hope that Europe will "swallow" the changes. They do not want to be outcasts from the international community. One potential "democratic" justification of the Tymoshenko-Yanukovych accord would be that Ukraine is following in the footsteps of other central European countries in building a parliamentary system of governance.

Even if one could argue that a parliamentary system would be best for Ukraine, it would be unacceptable to install it in such an undemocratic way.

A personal carve-up of power in a smoke-filled back room can never lead to good governance. Pro-democratic reforms introduced in an undemocratic way are doomed to fail. The move would cause a massive loss of face for post-Orange Revolution Ukraine.

The one silver lining is that the developments have revealed who is who. Masks have been ripped off. Cards are on the table. Intentions are clear. Now society must act.

If the reasons for the convulsions of Ukraine's political dinosaurs are clear, it is also clear that their actions are doomed to fail. Ukraine has won its freedom at too high a price to simply give it up to protect the interests of the several hundred people from these two political camps.

Ukraine's leaders should look forward instead of trying to cement the past. Just as the dinosaurs played a valuable role in the development of planet earth, these two parties have played their role in the creation of a democratic Ukraine. They should have the courage to admit that their philosophies and strategies are obsolete and welcome more progressive forces. This way, history would praise them. Ukrainians and Europeans alike would thank them.

Olena Prystayko is a research fellow at the EU-Russia Centre in Brussels.

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author's, not those of EUobserver.

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