Thursday

28th Mar 2024

Opinion

Syria: Arab war-drums and EU shyness

  • Assad poster. 'The EU risks losing face by making vague and non-committal statements' (Photo: anjci)

The staying power of President Bashar Assad's regime in Syria is provoking two main responses from the international community.

Gulf Arab states, led by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, are calling for arming the opposition (and are reportedly doing so already). Western states are proving more cautious, announcing increases in humanitarian aid and upgrading rhetorical condemnation.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Get the EU news that really matters

Instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

Such divisions were reflected at the first 'Friends of Syria' meeting in Tunis, where representatives from over 60 states failed to agree on a concrete course of action to end violence.

The appointment of former UN secretary-general Kofi Anan as joint UN-Arab League special envoy for Syria is the closest the international community has come to consensus. By supporting Anan's mandate to engage with opposition forces and the regime alike, the EU is exploring ways other than military intervention to oust Assad.

For the EU to follow the decision of the Gulf states to expel their Syrian ambassadors may sit well with audiences at home, but will not prevent the military crackdown.

Already six EU member states have recalled their ambassadors to Syria. But this reduces diplomatic avenues for pursuing a solution and exacerbates one of the key characteristics of the Syria conflict: paucity of information.

Rumours of Iranian warships docking at the Syrian port of Tartus and of US drones patrolling the skies smack of a dangerous escalation into proxy warfare in one of the most volatile regions of the world. Relatively untouched since the start of the uprisings almost a year ago, Damascus and Aleppo are now seeing their own large-scale protests and violent regime counter-measures.

In stark contrast to events on the ground, Assad seems to be pushing ahead with domestic reforms.

But the recent constitutional referendum was too little and too late. Limiting the president's mandate to two 7-year terms does not satisfy calls from the opposition for him to step down. Nor does removing his Baath party's status as "leader of the country" act as a sufficient guarantee of multi-party democracy.

Meanwhile, Assad continues to blame the uprisings on "armed terrorist groups" and the US has unintentionally given him a political gift.

US national intelligence director James Clapper recently voiced concerns that Al-Qaeda in Iraq is now operating from within Syria. This creates new difficulties for Western and Arab states struggling to find ways to help force Assad out of power. The EU should be wary of buying into such alarmist US discourse.

EU support to date has been cautious but firm.

EU high representative Catherine Ashton has recognised the Syrian National Council as "an interlocutor" if not "the legitimate representative" of the Syrian opposition. Britain has announced £2 million in aid for protesters, while France is investigating the logistics of creating humanitarian corridors into neighbouring countries.

Wording in this case matters. Russia and China will continue to veto any UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution that may lead to military intervention. If, however, a UN text refers specifically to "escorting aid convoys" or "assuring the safety of the International Red Cross" they might find it hard to justify more vetos.

For now, those advocating intervention in Syria are still short of the three conditions that were present in Libya: a UNSC legal mandate; an Arab League or a Organisation of Islamic Co-operation political mandate; and regime military weakness. Defections have not yet emerged in the higher ranks of the Syrian army or among Syrian diplomats abroad.

In the diplomatic arena, the EU risks losing face by making vague and non-committal statements. Support for an "inclusive process to take the country forward" as voiced by Catherine Ashton on her recent trip to Washington lacks any concrete proposals.

The EU must not be tempted by neutrality.

But to bring about long-term stability it will have to work with some elements of the current state apparatus. The EU is right to adopt firm sanctions but must also cash in on years of engagement with the regime to push parts of the state in a reformist direction.

Diplomats face the unenviable task of charting a course between two sobering and opposing lessons of recent years: tragic inaction, as in the Balkans, and the frightening recklessness of the Iraq invasion.

Helene Michou is a researcher at the Madrid-based think tank, Fride

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author's, not those of EUobserver.

Russia: EU and US want war with Syria

Russia has accused Nato countries of trying to start a war with Syria and foment unrest in Iran - claims backed up by some Western security analysts.

Why UK-EU defence and security deal may be difficult

Rather than assuming a pro-European Labour government in London will automatically open doors in Brussels, the Labour party needs to consider what it may be able to offer to incentivise EU leaders to factor the UK into their defence thinking.

Column

EU's Gaza policy: boon for dictators, bad for democrats

While they woo dictators and autocrats, EU policymakers are becoming ever more estranged from the world's democrats. The real tragedy is the erosion of one of Europe's key assets: its huge reserves of soft power, writes Shada Islam.

Latest News

  1. "Swiftly dial back" interest rates, ECB told
  2. Moscow's terror attack, security and Gaza
  3. Why UK-EU defence and security deal may be difficult
  4. EU unveils plan to create a European cross-border degree
  5. How migrants risk becoming drug addicts along Balkan route
  6. 2024: A Space Odyssey — why the galaxy needs regulating
  7. Syrian mayor in Germany speaks out against AfD
  8. Asian workers pay price for EU ship recycling

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of MinistersJoin the Nordic Food Systems Takeover at COP28
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersHow women and men are affected differently by climate policy
  3. Nordic Council of MinistersArtist Jessie Kleemann at Nordic pavilion during UN climate summit COP28
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersCOP28: Gathering Nordic and global experts to put food and health on the agenda
  5. Friedrich Naumann FoundationPoems of Liberty – Call for Submission “Human Rights in Inhume War”: 250€ honorary fee for selected poems
  6. World BankWorld Bank report: How to create a future where the rewards of technology benefit all levels of society?

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsThis autumn Europalia arts festival is all about GEORGIA!
  2. UNOPSFostering health system resilience in fragile and conflict-affected countries
  3. European Citizen's InitiativeThe European Commission launches the ‘ImagineEU’ competition for secondary school students in the EU.
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersThe Nordic Region is stepping up its efforts to reduce food waste
  5. UNOPSUNOPS begins works under EU-funded project to repair schools in Ukraine
  6. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsGeorgia effectively prevents sanctions evasion against Russia – confirm EU, UK, USA

Join EUobserver

EU news that matters

Join us