Thursday

28th Mar 2024

Opinion

The Gulf is not the exception

The impact of the Arab uprisings on domestic dynamics in the Gulf poses a dilemma for the European Union. At a time when the Gulf’s financial prowess and regional political clout are most in demand, how can Europe engage with the ruling regimes without condoning their reactionary policies towards reform?

Long content to excuse their acquiescence with authoritarian regimes through appeals to cultural relativism, lack of leverage or outright necessity (in terms of security and energy), EU member states can no longer be sure that such an approach will ensure the much prized stability.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Get the EU news that really matters

Instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

  • "There is an increasing reluctance, especially by the youth, to have cultural, religious and social norms imposed by paternalistic, overbearing regimes" (Photo: Stephan Geyer)

In the face of the crisis, Europe has incorporated economic and financial rationales to its traditionally security-oriented policies towards the Gulf. For EU member states, the region represents a high growth area with a lot of potential for developing trade and investment; they fiercely compete for lucrative projects bankrolled by revenues from high oil and gas prices.

The Gulf has become an importance source of inward investment in Europe. Politically, the Gulf States have reacted to the Arab uprisings by stepping up their presence in regional policy-making and have been useful allies for Europe (and the US) in a number of conflagrations.

Conditions therefore militate against a change of policy. Europe, weary of upsetting the ruling regimes of the Arabian Peninsula, is signaling its support to them and has yet to address the issue of repression within the Gulf States. But the EU should be careful, or at the very least alert and prepared. Dissatisfaction is fermenting in pockets of the Gulf’s population.

Countless analysts are warning that change is inevitable in this region too. The genie is out of the bottle and louder and new found calls for change, although limited, will be harder to silence. The question is whether change will be controlled and gradual or abrupt and sudden, and how much longer will the status quo hold.

Gulf regimes have been quick to deploy pre-emptive measures in the face of a potential spread of protests to the Gulf.

The extent of financial outlays, as cash hand outs or destined to job creation, salary increases, and development projects, is unprecedented. But these socio-economic concessions are fiscally unsustainable in the long term, especially if coupled with demographic trends. They have also stepped up repressive measures. Arrests of activists or dissenters have increased, exponentially in some cases (94 on trial in UAE). Media laws have become more stringent and there have been attempts to close down, or at least control, the burgeoning space for discussion provided by new social media.

A consequence of this repression has been an increase in sectarianism as the regimes attribute any opposition to ‘foreign’ elements driven by sectarian agendas. But the clampdown on what were, at least initially, very mild criticisms and petitions is likely to provoke a backlash and the radicalisation of demands.

The population of the Gulf States has witnessed an uptick in local anger. Grievances are more forcefully aired, as seen in protests over political prisoners in Saudi Arabia, working conditions in Oman, the prime minister and citizenship issues in Kuwait and the general dissatisfaction with governance issues.

There is an increasing reluctance, especially by the youth, to have cultural, religious and social norms imposed by paternalistic, overbearing regimes. Government criticism by citizens, quite unusual three or four years ago, has become very common in social media during the past two years.

The combined effects of the regimes’ reaction and the popular dynamics make some states more vulnerable to increasing societal and economic pressures and exogenous shocks such as fluctuations in global energy prices. The EU should at the very least hedge its bets.

Europe faces the dilemma not only of whether to change its approach, but also of how to do so.

The default policy inertia is compounded by the inaccessibility of these states: they are not candidates for development aid, any suggestion of reform is anathema to the ruling regimes, and their societies are generally very conservative and suspicious of ‘Western’ agendas. In addition, regimes are hardly monolithic with turf battles between competing factions of the royal families further complicating external relations.

How then should external relations towards the Gulf be modelled?

Do no harm. If the situation cannot be improved, at least the EU should not make it worse. The EU shares responsibility for a permissive international environment, including by the continued arms sales of its member states. Unwavering support from abroad lowers the cost of repression.

Engage with the population. Rather than giving up and just dealing with the regimes, efforts should be made to engage the population. Twinnings, exchanges and efforts to weave a web of inter-regional people-to-people connections offer the best chance of enabling the population to articulate and determine their priorities and to voice them.

Encourage economic reforms. The Gulf States should be encouraged in their diversification and privatisation efforts, as moving away from the rentier state model could help the political emancipation of the population. The populations’ financial dependence on the state dampens the prospect of demands for change.

Stability in the Gulf may prove more fragile than often believed.

The EU should be proactive and seek to encourage controlled and gradual reform to avoid greater future disruptions. In doing so it should not fear for its commercial and security relations. While there is a sense among the oil- and gas-rich regimes that external partners need them more than the other way around, this position is overstated.

The EU should be confident that its relations with the Gulf States are secure enough to withstand the removal of its kid gloves.

The writer is senior researcher and Middle East expert at the European think-tank FRIDE.

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author's, not those of EUobserver.

The Gulf exception

The EU will cluck approvingly at so-called reforms in Gulf states. But why hold elections for bodies lacking any real power?

Why UK-EU defence and security deal may be difficult

Rather than assuming a pro-European Labour government in London will automatically open doors in Brussels, the Labour party needs to consider what it may be able to offer to incentivise EU leaders to factor the UK into their defence thinking.

Column

EU's Gaza policy: boon for dictators, bad for democrats

While they woo dictators and autocrats, EU policymakers are becoming ever more estranged from the world's democrats. The real tragedy is the erosion of one of Europe's key assets: its huge reserves of soft power, writes Shada Islam.

Column

EU's Gaza policy: boon for dictators, bad for democrats

While they woo dictators and autocrats, EU policymakers are becoming ever more estranged from the world's democrats. The real tragedy is the erosion of one of Europe's key assets: its huge reserves of soft power, writes Shada Islam.

Latest News

  1. "Swiftly dial back" interest rates, ECB told
  2. Moscow's terror attack, security and Gaza
  3. Why UK-EU defence and security deal may be difficult
  4. EU unveils plan to create a European cross-border degree
  5. How migrants risk becoming drug addicts along Balkan route
  6. 2024: A Space Odyssey — why the galaxy needs regulating
  7. Syrian mayor in Germany speaks out against AfD
  8. Asian workers pay price for EU ship recycling

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of MinistersJoin the Nordic Food Systems Takeover at COP28
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersHow women and men are affected differently by climate policy
  3. Nordic Council of MinistersArtist Jessie Kleemann at Nordic pavilion during UN climate summit COP28
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersCOP28: Gathering Nordic and global experts to put food and health on the agenda
  5. Friedrich Naumann FoundationPoems of Liberty – Call for Submission “Human Rights in Inhume War”: 250€ honorary fee for selected poems
  6. World BankWorld Bank report: How to create a future where the rewards of technology benefit all levels of society?

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsThis autumn Europalia arts festival is all about GEORGIA!
  2. UNOPSFostering health system resilience in fragile and conflict-affected countries
  3. European Citizen's InitiativeThe European Commission launches the ‘ImagineEU’ competition for secondary school students in the EU.
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersThe Nordic Region is stepping up its efforts to reduce food waste
  5. UNOPSUNOPS begins works under EU-funded project to repair schools in Ukraine
  6. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsGeorgia effectively prevents sanctions evasion against Russia – confirm EU, UK, USA

Join EUobserver

EU news that matters

Join us