Friday

29th Mar 2024

Stalemate in Copenhagen as climate talks enter final stretch

  • A climate deal hangs in the balance as international talks in Copenhagen enter their final day (Photo: Matthew McDermott)

Wealthy nations at the UN climate talks in Copenhagen appear to be coalescing around the number 100 billion as their final offer to the developing world including China - although whether a dollar, pound or euro sign comes in front of the figure despite the variance in currency valuations is another story.

On Thursday, in attempt to push forward stalled talks in the Danish capital, US secretary of state Hillary Clinton said Washington was ready to embrace the idea of $100 billion (€70 billion) in funds to developing countries to help them tackle climate change.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Get the EU news that really matters

Instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

"The US is prepared to work with other countries to jointly mobilise $100 billion a year by 2020," Ms Clinton told reporters.

The number, if not the actual sum, echoes the EU's offer of €100 billion for the third world on the table since the autumn and Britain's suggestion dating back to July of £100 billion (€112 billion).

But where the EU figure has been offered without conditions, the American number requires a quid pro quo from other powers, notably China and other emerging countries such as India and Brazil.

"In the absence of an operational agreement that meets the requirement that I outlined there will not be the final commitment that I outlined - at least from the United States," warned Ms Clinton.

The US wants at least the more advanced developing countries to commit to promises of steeper reductions in greenhouse gas emissions growth and in particular to a process that verifies the cuts have actually been made.

The developing world says they are happy to move to a low-carbon development path, but they say that those responsible for the crisis must pay for this transition and that only those actions taken that are funded by the west should have to be reviewed in this way and that any supplementary measures taken should not.

China has promised reductions of between 40 and 45 percent in their "carbon intensity" in relation to their GDP growth, but what this actually means remains unclear.

The EU wants more transparency from China in this regard in terms of which greenhouse gases they mean, which industrial sectors this will apply to and what sort of GDP metrics.

The issue of climate finance has been one of the biggest - although by far not the only - stumbling block in negotiations.

And for once, the third world has the whip hand. While the north is responsible for the bulk of emissions, the developing world will produce the bulk of future emissions over the coming century as it industrialises, mimicking the process the rich world employed to establish its prosperity.

Thus developed countries cannot just make an agreement amongst themselves. They must get their poorer cousins on board.

The US offer raised hopes in some quarters that the UN process could get moving again. UN climate chief Yvo de Boer said: "Hold tight ... mind the doors. The cable car is moving again."

There has certainly been a brightening of the mood of European delegates, even if almost all of what is up for discussion remains contentious.

Although he also warned that the precise sums were still vague and that if the actual amounts of public money turn out to be inadequate, the developing world is likely to reject the offer.

While many US papers have reported the Obama administration's embrace of a $100 billion fund, the headline sum masks the fact that a majority of this is likely to come from the private sector rather than government revenues.

The $100 billion amount also represents the total that all developed nations should pay the south, not the US alone.

The EU has suggested that of the €100 billion number, between €22 and €50 billion should come from the public sector of different wealthy nations, and that the 27-state bloc is "willing to pay its fair share" of that - usually understood to mean roughly a third, or between €7 and €17 billion.

Ms Clinton said that the $100 billion would be a mix of public and private funds, although without specifying the balance.

Kyoto

Meanwhile, another barrier to a deal, the global north's insistence that the Kyoto Protocol - which requires that developed countries make binding emissions reductions but not developing countries - be buried as a sweetener to get the US onside with steeper promises of emissions cuts seemed to be crumbling.

The developing world, for its part, has clung tenaciously to the protocol. For all its problems - the US in not a signatory and includes generous channels for carbon offsets, which they say are unjust and in any case do not work - it is the only legally binding instrument that has actually delivered emissions reductions.

The US will not sign on to the protocol without their growing economic rival, China, included as well, and so wants an entirely new framework.

The EU for its part has focused on pressing the developing world to abandon Kyoto rather that pushing Washington to embrace it.

But the southern bloc has remained resolute in defence of the protocol. Walking around the Bella Centre conference space in Copenhagen, barely a single developing world delegate goes without sporting a large "Kyoto Yes!" badge. Poor countries have successfully made Kyoto their climate brand.

Sarkozy, Brown shift on Kyoto

On Thursday, both French President Nicholas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that if Kyoto is so important to the southern bloc, so be it.

"So people want to keep Kyoto, OK let's keep Kyoto. But let us agree on an overall political umbrella," said Mr Sarkozy in a speech to the conference. "Time is against us, let's stop posturing."

Behind the scenes, the West is frustrated at the intransigence of the south, with officials briefing heavily against the G77 group of nations, which they blame for the stalemate, calling its tactics diversionary and grandstanding.

The Sudanese chief negotiator of the alliance - actually numbering 130 countries and including China - has repeatedly railed against the unfairness of the process and the offers on the table in undiplomatic but often rhetorically attractive language.

At one point, he said of an offer of early funds for dealing with climate change before the current commitment period of Kyoto expires: "Ten billion dollars is not enough to buy us coffins."

On Wednesday, he told EUobserver that the EU climate perspective meant the "destruction of Africa."

Japan, annoyed at the slowness of the process, has pushed the Danish chair of the conference to present a consolidated text that leapfrogs over the current impasse. However, the last time such a text was leaked, it led to an uproar amongst developing world delegates, who said that the UN process was the only legitimate channel for discussions and not back-room deals.

The Danes for their part said that anticipating compromises that could be subsequently presented to top leaders was quite normal working method and way of getting discussions moving.

Going into the evening the EU and the Danish presidency of the UN talks called an after-dinner meeting of major countries in an attempt to overcome the impasse.

Swedish Prime Minister Frederik Reinfeldt criticised the media for its gloomy portrayal of the talks. "Some journalists have chosen to depict the situation as being black as night," he said in a press statement. "However, [I see] the sky lightening and ... a solution to the issue of climate financing is now close."

He also rubbished the suggestion that the talks are split between rich and poor. "There is a lingering old conception that a small limited circle of rich countries can solve the problem on their own. This has been one of the problems the whole time."

He argued that the world had changed and that the likes China, India, Brazil and South Africa could no longer be considered poor nations. "We are in a situation where those we call developing countries are now responsible for just over half of emissions. And still we are promoting the reasoning that the growing half of the world should not be part of the agreement, and that is, of course, not an option."

Ahead of the arrival of US President Barack Obama at the talks, the Copenhagen process is on a knife-edge, with movement on some issues hinting at a deal, but at the same time the underlying acrimony suggesting the process could collapse in a morass of mutual suspicion.

Compromise climate deal emerging in Copenhagen

A draft climate pact was emerging in the early hours of Friday at the UN conference in Copenhagen, calling for a two degree Celsius cap on global warming and €70 billion in aid for poor nations by 2020.

'Swiftly dial back' interest rates, ECB told

Italian central banker Piero Cipollone in his first monetary policy speech since joining the ECB's board in November, said that the bank should be ready to "swiftly dial back our restrictive monetary policy stance."

Opinion

EU Modernisation Fund: an open door for fossil gas in Romania

Among the largest sources of financing for energy transition of central and eastern European countries, the €60bn Modernisation Fund remains far from the public eye. And perhaps that's one reason it is often used for financing fossil gas projects.

Latest News

  1. Kenyan traders react angrily to proposed EU clothes ban
  2. Lawyer suing Frontex takes aim at 'antagonistic' judges
  3. Orban's Fidesz faces low-polling jitters ahead of EU election
  4. German bank freezes account of Jewish peace group
  5. EU Modernisation Fund: an open door for fossil gas in Romania
  6. 'Swiftly dial back' interest rates, ECB told
  7. Moscow's terror attack, security and Gaza
  8. Why UK-EU defence and security deal may be difficult

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of MinistersJoin the Nordic Food Systems Takeover at COP28
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersHow women and men are affected differently by climate policy
  3. Nordic Council of MinistersArtist Jessie Kleemann at Nordic pavilion during UN climate summit COP28
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersCOP28: Gathering Nordic and global experts to put food and health on the agenda
  5. Friedrich Naumann FoundationPoems of Liberty – Call for Submission “Human Rights in Inhume War”: 250€ honorary fee for selected poems
  6. World BankWorld Bank report: How to create a future where the rewards of technology benefit all levels of society?

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsThis autumn Europalia arts festival is all about GEORGIA!
  2. UNOPSFostering health system resilience in fragile and conflict-affected countries
  3. European Citizen's InitiativeThe European Commission launches the ‘ImagineEU’ competition for secondary school students in the EU.
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersThe Nordic Region is stepping up its efforts to reduce food waste
  5. UNOPSUNOPS begins works under EU-funded project to repair schools in Ukraine
  6. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsGeorgia effectively prevents sanctions evasion against Russia – confirm EU, UK, USA

Join EUobserver

EU news that matters

Join us