As the global climate summit COP29 starts next week, the European Union has taken bold steps to create concrete changes to keep global heating to the 1.5°C temperature rise agreed at the Paris Climate Summit.
Yet it appears that this European goal is threatened to be derailed.
The upcoming COP29 conference in Baku will place Azerbaijan — a nation deeply reliant on fossil fuels and heavily involved with Russia — in the global spotlight.
Criticisms of Azerbaijan's COP29 role go beyond just its climate policies; its troubling record on human rights, democracy, and the environment paints an uneasy picture for a nation hosting a climate summit.
As COP29 approaches, understanding the dynamics between these two nations is crucial, given the negative influence Russia could wield on climate commitments.
Azerbaijan is already one of the world's largest exporters of fossil fuels. It plans to increase gas production by a third by 2030, shining a light on its own weak emission reduction goals, which do not meet the Paris Agreement goals to reduce global warming.
Oil and gas currently fuel around 90 percent of the country’s exports and account for 60 percent of the state budget.
Critics don’t just warn about potential environmental consequences but also note that under the current regime, activists face repression, with around 25 journalists and environmental activists arrested for their work leading up to COP29.
These crackdowns have sown fear in the remaining activists left in the country, further diminishing the voices able to speak up against human rights and climate abuses.
Local and international NGOs are calling on EU member states, who are relying increasingly on Azerbaijan to replace Russian fossil fuels, to condition trade ties with the country on genuine human rights and climate commitments.
Civil society and progressive governments have an essential role in countering harmful narratives and sustaining momentum on the fossil fuel phase-out agenda but have limited place for advocacy due to the hostile measures currently seen in Baku.
Azerbaijan is pushing for COP29 to be branded as a “peace summit,” calling for regional stability. However, with recent military action forcing over 100,000 Armenians to flee Nagorno-Karabkh, these peace gestures appear more like peace washing than true diplomacy.
Similarly, Azerbaijan has provided few tangible strategies for decarbonising its economy, with some criticising the country's climate action as “critically insufficient.” Hosting COP29 appears by all accounts to be an attempt to greenwash its authoritarian practices while failing to align with the summit’s core mission of reducing fossil fuel dependency and advancing renewable energy.
Russia’s presence in Baku adds another layer of concern, potentially shifting COP29’s focus toward fossil fuel expansion rather than climate action. Russia has received global condemnation for its horrific fossil-fuel-funded war on innocent Ukraine. Russia’s involvement and Azerbaijan’s COP29 leadership could divert attention from crucial climate commitments, undermining the summit's goals and calling into question the decision to hold the summit in Baku in the first place.
Human rights violations and restrictions on environmental organisations are becoming increasingly normalised in Azerbaijan, which could have significant social and political repercussions both domestically and internationally.
These issues are compounded by the EU’s ongoing support for an authoritarian regime focused on expanding fossil fuel production, posing long-term risks to both democratic values and environmental progress.
Azerbaijan and Russia maintain a complex relationship, intertwined due to their roles as significant energy producers and influential geopolitical players. Azerbaijan, a key oil and gas exporter, has collaborated with Russia on several energy initiatives, including the North-South Transport Corridor, which enhances trade routes and energy cooperation between the two nations.
The country’s electrical power system is interconnected with those of Russia, Georgia, Iran, and Turkey on the Nakhchivan border. However, the electricity system is synchronised only with Russia’s, as Azerbaijan was previously part of the USSR’s grid. Azerbaijan and Russia also agreed during Putin's August 2024 trip to Baku to "start joint production of oil tankers." This partnership spotlights Azerbaijan's strategic balancing act with strong Russian influence while attempting to project itself as a reliable partner with Western interests.
Russia, one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, has historically prioritised energy exports over climate commitments and shows no genuine interest in meeting Paris Agreement goals.
As sanctions from the West continue to limit Russia’s access to certain markets, Putin is increasingly building partnerships with non-Western allies like China and Central Asian countries to solidify its energy agenda.
COP29 may serve as a stage for Russia to promote an energy transition plan that maintains fossil fuel dominance under the guise of economic development, challenging renewable energy commitments and raising questions about whether it will help COP29 advance any meaningful climate action.
If Russia’s influence grows in Baku, COP29’s core mission could be at risk, potentially setting back any progress in fossil fuel transition and methane reduction. The international community must leverage the summit to demand more substantial human rights and climate responsibility commitments from Azerbaijan and Russia.
Azerbaijan’s strategy of ramping up oil and gas production directly counters efforts to cut global emissions.
EU countries — particularly as they deal with Azerbaijan for energy sources — must reassess whether supporting Azerbaijan’s fossil fuel industry aligns with the EU’s own climate goals.
Thankfully, some MEPs have already begun calling out the EU to axe any energy deals with Azerbaijan in light of the human rights abuses taking place in the country. Instead of emboldening authoritarian regimes, COP29 should be an opportunity to reinforce sustainable and rights-respecting climate action.
COP29 offers a critical moment for the European Union to take a leadership role in acting to save the climate.
Yet, it must also confront the contradiction of supporting fossil fuel exporting nations like Azerbaijan, Russia, and last year's hosts, the UAE, while pledging to mitigate climate change. Without addressing these fossil fuel alliances, such as the Azerbaijan-Russia connection, the EU risks undermining both European and global urgent climate targets, while jeopardising the integrity of democratic values worldwide.
Svitlana Romanko is executive director of Razom We Stand. a Ukrainian NGO calling for a global embargo on Russian fossil fuels.
Svitlana Romanko is executive director of Razom We Stand. a Ukrainian NGO calling for a global embargo on Russian fossil fuels.