Listen: What’s happening with Macron’s government, confidence vote or collapse?

France is staring down at yet another political crisis. Prime Minister François Bayrou has announced a confidence vote for the 8th of September, a move that could very well bring down his government.

Bayrou is pushing through an austerity plan worth 44 billion euros to cut France’s soaring deficit, currently at 5.8% of GDP, nearly double the EU’s target. His proposals include scrapping two public holidays and freezing spending. But, why the gamble and what can happen after September 8th?

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network.

EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Long Story Short” hosted by Evi Kiorri. The podcast is available on all major platforms.

You can find the transcript here if you prefer reading:

France is staring down at yet another political crisis. Prime Minister François Bayrou has announced a confidence vote for the 8th of September, a move that could very well bring down his government. But, why the gamble and what can happen after September 8th?

So, the reason for the confidence vote is the fact that François Bayrou is pushing through an austerity plan worth 44 billion euros to cut France’s soaring deficit, currently at 5.8% of GDP, nearly double the EU’s target. His proposals include scrapping two public holidays and freezing spending. Unsurprisingly, that hasn’t gone down well with either the opposition or the French public.

The reaction has been swift: from the far-left France Unbowed to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, opposition parties are lining up to vote him out. In parliament, they actually have the numbers to succeed and they are not only attacking Bayrou but also Macron himself. Some are even demanding the president’s resignation.

So, if Bayrou loses, he and his cabinet will have to resign, leaving President Emmanuel Macron to appoint yet another prime minister, the third in just a year.

Financial markets have already taken note. The French CAC 40 dropped around 2% this week, and French bond yields are climbing. At 114% of GDP, France’s debt is ringing alarm bells well beyond Paris.
Now it’s true that political turmoil in France doesn’t stay in France. We’re talking about the EU’s second-largest economy, and one of the countries that should be setting the tone for stability in Europe. Instead, France is again on the brink of yet   another government collapse.

And this constant carousel of prime ministers makes serious reforms nearly impossible. France needs to meet EU deficit rules, calm markets, and keep public trust. But austerity measures, like cutting holidays and freezing spending, land hardest on citizens, the very people already squeezed by inflation and stagnant wages.

And when voters are repeatedly told to “tighten their belts” while the political class changes faces every few months, resentment grows and it feeds into the hands of populists like Marie Le Pen, who is already positioning herself for the 2027 presidential race.

So, what happens after 8 September? If Bayrou falls, Macron has a few options, but all of them are messy. He can try to appoint yet another centrist prime minister, which looks a lot like repeating the same mistake and hoping for different results.

He could turn to the left or right to form some kind of coalition, but that would come with major concessions he doesn’t want to make. Or he could dissolve the parliament and call for fresh elections, which is exactly what landed France in this deadlock last year.

In the meantime, trade unions are calling for a nationwide shutdown on the 10th of September, just two days after the awaited confidence vote. So, if you are in France expect mass protests against austerity and social unrest on top of the ongoing political paralysis.

For Macron, the clock is ticking. His presidency runs until 2027, but he’s already struggling to govern with a hostile parliament, an emboldened far right, with markets and Brussels losing patience. France is not yet in full-blown crisis, but if this confidence vote goes the way most analysts expect, the collapse of the existing government, then the crisis may be very close.