20th Mar 2018

China to overtake EU and US by 2030, US intelligence says

  • The Chinese economic powerhouse will overtake Europe and the US by 2030 (Photo: Patrick Rodwell)

The era of American and European economic dominance has less than two decades left to run, according to a report by US intelligence services.

The study - Global Trends 2030, out on Monday (10 December) - predicts the Chinese economy will overtake the US at some point between 2022 and 2030.

Thank you for reading EUobserver!

Subscribe now for a 30 day free trial.

  1. €150 per year
  2. or €15 per month
  3. Cancel anytime

EUobserver is an independent, not-for-profit news organization that publishes daily news reports, analysis, and investigations from Brussels and the EU member states. We are an indispensable news source for anyone who wants to know what is going on in the EU.

We are mainly funded by advertising and subscription revenues. As advertising revenues are falling fast, we depend on subscription revenues to support our journalism.

For group, corporate or student subscriptions, please contact us. See also our full Terms of Use.

If you already have an account click here to login.

It says the once dominant trio of the US, Europe and Japan will see their share of world trade fall from 56 percent to well below half in 2030.

It also notes that China and India are not the only rising Asian countries to tilt the balance of world power from west to east.

Another group - the so-called Next Eleven, comprising Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea and Vietnam - is tipped to overtake the EU-27 in terms of collective GDP by 2030.

The report, by US National Intelligence Council (NIC), is timed to coincide with the start of President Barack Obama's second term in the White House.

Its section on Europe offers a bleak view of the impact of the sovereign debt crisis.

"The eurozone crisis has laid bare the tensions and divisions between member states and, for the first time in decades, raised fundamental questions about Europe's future," it says, adding that the post-crisis Union "would not resemble today's Europe."

Its scenarios for the eurozone include the collapse of the euro and then the EU itself.

But it also sees the possibility of EU leaders making a "federalist push" leading to a European "renaissance."

Under this model "Europe is well on its way to completing the original concept of a comprehensive economic and monetary union [and] ... will emerge much stronger as a result."

However, while the report states that "more integration probably will be required to overcome the crisis and address structural problems" it admits that domestic political concerns mean that "massive transfer of sovereignty may be a bridge too far" for most countries.

It says this could lead to a multi-speed Europe, with a core group of countries pursuing deeper integration and others choosing either to "opt-out" or adopt a "wait-and-see" policy.

Germany is expected to remain Europe's political leader because of its economic growth prospects, but its economic wellbeing will be put at risk by an ageing population.

It notes that "Europe's Muslim population will double from 4.1 percent to 8 percent" bu 2030.

The world population is projected to rise by around 15 percent to 8.3 billion people, up from 7.1 billion in 2012.

Unveiling the report, Christopher Kojm, chairman of the NIC, said that "the spectacular rise of Asian economies is dramatically altering ... US influence."

For his part, Mathew Burrows, the lead author of the paper, said Western economic decline is "not inevitable."

He added that "in most cases, [the situation] is manageable if you take measures ... now."


China urges Germany and France to solve euro-crisis

Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao on Thursday offered vague promises to buy bonds from troubled euro-countries, but said that it is ultimately up to Germany and France to solve the crisis.


Selmayr case symptomatic, says EU novel author

The controversy over the new EU Commission top civil servant is revealing of what is wrong with EU institutions and how they are blocked by national governments, says award-winning Austrian novelist Robert Menasse.


The populists may have won, but Italy won't leave the euro

The situation as Rome tries to form a government is turbulent and unpredictable. However, the most extreme eurosceptic policies floated during the election campaign are unlikely to happen - not least due to the precarious state of the Italian banks.


Why has central Europe turned so eurosceptic?

Faced with poorer infrastructure, dual food standards and what can seem like hectoring from western Europe it is not surprising some central and eastern European member states are rebelling.

News in Brief

  1. EU leaders expected to approve Brexit future talks guidelines
  2. Tusk: EU must 'continue to engage' with US on trade
  3. European elections set for 23-26 May 2019
  4. EU tries to find common candidate for top UN food job
  5. Facebook post triggers Norway no-confidence vote
  6. Merkel: 'no reason' to sanction Schroeder for Russia support
  7. MEPs and Council strike deal on posted workers' rights
  8. EU parliament to investigate Facebook data 'breach'

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. EUobserverHiring - Sales Associate With 2+ Years Experience - Apply Now!
  2. EUobserverHiring - Finance Officer With Accounting Degree or Experience - Apply Now!
  3. ECR GroupAn Opportunity to Help Shape a Better Future for Europe
  4. Counter BalanceControversial Turkish Azerbaijani Gas Pipeline Gets Major EU Loan
  5. World VisionSyria’s Children ‘At Risk of Never Fully Recovering', New Study Finds
  6. Macedonian Human Rights MovementMeets with US Congress Member to Denounce Anti-Macedonian Name Negotiations
  7. Martens CentreEuropean Defence Union: Time to Aim High?
  8. UNESDAWatch UNESDA’s President Toast Its 60th Anniversary Year
  9. AJC Transatlantic InstituteAJC Condemns MEP Ana Gomes’s Anti-Semitic Remark, Calls for Disciplinary Action
  10. EPSUEU Commissioners Deny 9.8 Million Workers Legal Minimum Standards on Information Rights
  11. ACCAAppropriate Risk Management is Crucial for Effective Strategic Leadership
  12. EPSUWill the Circular Economy be an Economy With no Workers?