Friday

29th Jul 2016

China to overtake EU and US by 2030, US intelligence says

  • The Chinese economic powerhouse will overtake Europe and the US by 2030 (Photo: Patrick Rodwell)

The era of American and European economic dominance has less than two decades left to run, according to a report by US intelligence services.

The study - Global Trends 2030, out on Monday (10 December) - predicts the Chinese economy will overtake the US at some point between 2022 and 2030.

Dear EUobserver reader

Subscribe now for unrestricted access to EUobserver.

Sign up for 30 days' free trial, no obligation. Full subscription only 15 € / month or 150 € / year.

  1. Unlimited access on desktop and mobile
  2. All premium articles, analysis, commentary and investigations
  3. EUobserver archives

EUobserver is the only independent news media covering EU affairs in Brussels and all 28 member states.

♡ We value your support.

If you already have an account click here to login.

It says the once dominant trio of the US, Europe and Japan will see their share of world trade fall from 56 percent to well below half in 2030.

It also notes that China and India are not the only rising Asian countries to tilt the balance of world power from west to east.

Another group - the so-called Next Eleven, comprising Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea and Vietnam - is tipped to overtake the EU-27 in terms of collective GDP by 2030.

The report, by US National Intelligence Council (NIC), is timed to coincide with the start of President Barack Obama's second term in the White House.

Its section on Europe offers a bleak view of the impact of the sovereign debt crisis.

"The eurozone crisis has laid bare the tensions and divisions between member states and, for the first time in decades, raised fundamental questions about Europe's future," it says, adding that the post-crisis Union "would not resemble today's Europe."

Its scenarios for the eurozone include the collapse of the euro and then the EU itself.

But it also sees the possibility of EU leaders making a "federalist push" leading to a European "renaissance."

Under this model "Europe is well on its way to completing the original concept of a comprehensive economic and monetary union [and] ... will emerge much stronger as a result."

However, while the report states that "more integration probably will be required to overcome the crisis and address structural problems" it admits that domestic political concerns mean that "massive transfer of sovereignty may be a bridge too far" for most countries.

It says this could lead to a multi-speed Europe, with a core group of countries pursuing deeper integration and others choosing either to "opt-out" or adopt a "wait-and-see" policy.

Germany is expected to remain Europe's political leader because of its economic growth prospects, but its economic wellbeing will be put at risk by an ageing population.

It notes that "Europe's Muslim population will double from 4.1 percent to 8 percent" bu 2030.

The world population is projected to rise by around 15 percent to 8.3 billion people, up from 7.1 billion in 2012.

Unveiling the report, Christopher Kojm, chairman of the NIC, said that "the spectacular rise of Asian economies is dramatically altering ... US influence."

For his part, Mathew Burrows, the lead author of the paper, said Western economic decline is "not inevitable."

He added that "in most cases, [the situation] is manageable if you take measures ... now."

Merkel faces backlash after killings

The German chancellor faces mounting criticism at home for her refugee policy after asylum seekers carried out several attacks over the last week.

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Dialogue Platform
  2. GoogleHelping Emergency Services Find You When You Need It Most
  3. Counter BalanceWhat's New in the Investment Plan for Europe: Business as Usual or True Innovation ?
  4. Belgrade Security ForumMigration, Security and Solidarity within Global Disorder: Academic Event 2016
  5. GoogleHow Google Fights Piracy: Creating Value While Fighting Piracy
  6. EJC"My Visit to Israel" - Opinion by MEP Lopez Aguilar, Chair of the EP Working Group on Antisemitism
  7. World VisionChildren Migrating, Out of School and at Work as Hunger Deepens in Southern Africa
  8. European Healthy Lifestyle AllianceStand-Up (and Exercise) to Prevent Chronic Diseases
  9. Centre Maurits CoppietersLaunches a Real-time News Hub Specialised in EU Stakeholders
  10. GoogleEU-US Privacy Shield: Restoring Faith in Data Flows and Transatlantic Relations
  11. World VisionWorld Leaders & Youth Advocates Launch Partnership to End Violence Vs. Children
  12. Counter BalanceReport: Institutionalised Corruption in Romania's Third Largest Company