Tuesday

17th Jan 2017

China to overtake EU and US by 2030, US intelligence says

  • The Chinese economic powerhouse will overtake Europe and the US by 2030 (Photo: Patrick Rodwell)

The era of American and European economic dominance has less than two decades left to run, according to a report by US intelligence services.

The study - Global Trends 2030, out on Monday (10 December) - predicts the Chinese economy will overtake the US at some point between 2022 and 2030.

Dear EUobserver reader

Subscribe now for unrestricted access to EUobserver.

Sign up for 30 days' free trial, no obligation. Full subscription only 15 € / month or 150 € / year.

  1. Unlimited access on desktop and mobile
  2. All premium articles, analysis, commentary and investigations
  3. EUobserver archives

EUobserver is the only independent news media covering EU affairs in Brussels and all 28 member states.

♡ We value your support.

If you already have an account click here to login.

It says the once dominant trio of the US, Europe and Japan will see their share of world trade fall from 56 percent to well below half in 2030.

It also notes that China and India are not the only rising Asian countries to tilt the balance of world power from west to east.

Another group - the so-called Next Eleven, comprising Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea and Vietnam - is tipped to overtake the EU-27 in terms of collective GDP by 2030.

The report, by US National Intelligence Council (NIC), is timed to coincide with the start of President Barack Obama's second term in the White House.

Its section on Europe offers a bleak view of the impact of the sovereign debt crisis.

"The eurozone crisis has laid bare the tensions and divisions between member states and, for the first time in decades, raised fundamental questions about Europe's future," it says, adding that the post-crisis Union "would not resemble today's Europe."

Its scenarios for the eurozone include the collapse of the euro and then the EU itself.

But it also sees the possibility of EU leaders making a "federalist push" leading to a European "renaissance."

Under this model "Europe is well on its way to completing the original concept of a comprehensive economic and monetary union [and] ... will emerge much stronger as a result."

However, while the report states that "more integration probably will be required to overcome the crisis and address structural problems" it admits that domestic political concerns mean that "massive transfer of sovereignty may be a bridge too far" for most countries.

It says this could lead to a multi-speed Europe, with a core group of countries pursuing deeper integration and others choosing either to "opt-out" or adopt a "wait-and-see" policy.

Germany is expected to remain Europe's political leader because of its economic growth prospects, but its economic wellbeing will be put at risk by an ageing population.

It notes that "Europe's Muslim population will double from 4.1 percent to 8 percent" bu 2030.

The world population is projected to rise by around 15 percent to 8.3 billion people, up from 7.1 billion in 2012.

Unveiling the report, Christopher Kojm, chairman of the NIC, said that "the spectacular rise of Asian economies is dramatically altering ... US influence."

For his part, Mathew Burrows, the lead author of the paper, said Western economic decline is "not inevitable."

He added that "in most cases, [the situation] is manageable if you take measures ... now."

Analysis

Turkey holds key at last-ditch Cyprus talks

The Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders meet from Monday to Wednesday, before an multilateral conference on Thursday that could endorse a reunification settlement. Talks could still fail on Turkey's role.

Opinion

Populism is not a coherent transatlantic trend

Analysts have been keen to bundle together the election of Donald Trump in the US and the rise of right-wing populists in Europe. Pew research suggests this is premature.

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Caritas EuropaEU States to Join Pope Francis’s Appeal to Care for Migrant Children
  2. UNICEFNumber of Unaccompanied Children Arriving by sea to Italy Doubles in 2016
  3. Nordic Council of Ministers"Nordic Matters" Help Forge Closer Bonds Between the UK and the Nordic Region
  4. Computers, Privacy & Data ProtectionThe age of Intelligent Machines: join the Conference on 25-27 January 2017
  5. Martens CentreNo Better way to Lift Your Monday Blues Than to Gloss Over our Political Cartoons
  6. Dialogue PlatformThe Gulen Movement: An Islamic Response to Terror as a Global Challenge
  7. European Free AllianceMinority Rights and Autonomy are a European Normality
  8. Swedish EnterprisesHow to Create EU Competitiveness Post-Brexit? Seminar on January 24th
  9. European Jewish CongressSchulz to be Awarded the European Medal for Tolerance for his Stand Against Populism
  10. Nordic Council of Ministers"Adventures in Moominland" Kick Off Nordic Matters Festival in London
  11. PLATO15 Fully-Funded PhDs Across Europe on the Post-Crisis Legitimacy of the EU - Apply Now!
  12. Dialogue PlatformInterview: Fethullah Gulen Condemns Assassination of Russian Ambassador to Turkey

Latest News

  1. EU counter-terrorism laws "stripping rights", says Amnesty
  2. Gulen did not order Turkey coup, EU spies say
  3. Theresa May outlines 'hard Brexit'
  4. Liberals and centre-right unite in EU parliament
  5. UK economy faring better than expected, says IMF
  6. Theresa May: UK cannot be 'half-in, half-out' of EU
  7. Dutch PM: coalition with Wilders 'not going to happen'
  8. EU criticises Trump's Israel embassy idea