Tuesday

3rd Oct 2023

French expert: There will be no military strike on Iran

  • Tehran monument. Tertrais: 'It [the UN report] should be a game changer, but it won't' (Photo: Recovering Sick Soul)

Publication of UN evidence on Tuesday (8 November) that Iran is making nuclear weapons and recent Israeli war-talk is designed to stimulate new sanctions but is not a prelude to military strikes, a French expert has said.

Bruno Tertrais, a fellow at the Paris-based Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique and a former advisor to the French ministry of defence, told EUobserver on Wednesday there are three options for military action against Iran.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Become an expert on Europe

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

The first is Israeli air strikes designed to delay the nuclear programme.

The scenario would see Israeli F16s fly over Saudi Arabia to Iran in a one day operation that would likely achieve little in terms of damaging facilities.

The second is a bigger US-led campaign that would last several days, involve the use of strategic B-2 bombers flying from the US or Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, firing of naval-borne cruise missiles and parachuting in special forces to carry out sabotage, laser guiding and damage assessment.

The third option is a sustained US-led bombing campaign designed to cripple Iranian military infrastructure more broadly and to "shake the foundations of the regime." EU countries, such as France and the UK, would get involved only in the event of a mass-scale Iranian retaliation.

Tertrais believes none of this will happen, however.

"All these options are worse than sanctions. The only hope is that external pressure will force the regime to compromise, will make the cost of its nuclear efforts increasingly unbearable," he explained.

"The immediate consequences of military strikes would be a shock to the oil and gas markets and the world economy, as well as Iranian military retaliation - missile attacks on Israel, on Western allies in the [Arabian] Gulf, on military bases in Gulf countries and a new campaign of terrorism against the West."

He added: "The UN report is not going to be a trigger for military action. All the war talk from Israel should be seen in the light of domestic Israeli politics and trying to exert pressure on the international community to adopt an even harder line, to increase sanctions."

Existing UN sanctions comprise: an arms embargo; asset freezes and visa bans on people linked to the nuclear programme; and blocking of Iranian banks and shipping lines engaging in nuclear procurement activity.

The next step could be to blacklist the Iranian central bank, making it impossible for Iran to borrow money on international markets. But China and Russia have up till now threatened to veto extra steps at the UN Security Council.

The internal report by the Vienna-based nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, circulated to IAEA members on Tuesday night was immediately leaked to press.

The 12-page study signed off by IAEA chief, Japanese diplomat Yukiya Amano, states boldly that: "There are ... indications that some activities relevant to the development of a nuclear device continued after 2003, and that some may still be ongoing."

It also includes a 13-page annex giving never-before-published details of the alleged weapons programme. The annex cites "credible" information from Western intelligence agencies that Iran has bought black market know-how on making an enriched uranium weapons core and on fitting warheads to missiles, as well as carrying out tests on a sophisticated detonator.

Tertrais said it is "remarkable" that all 27 EU countries, including previous sceptics such as Austria, are "united" on the need for tougher sanctions.

But he predicted the UN report will not change China or Russia's point of view. "It should be a game-changer, but it won't. Those that don't want to be convinced won't be convinced," he said.

US and France point to upcoming action on Iran

US President Barack Obama and French leader Nicolas Sarkozy have indicated that an upcoming UN report on Iran's alleged nuclear weapons programme could trigger new international action.

Iran suicide bombers pose bigger threat than missiles, expert says

Iran's current capabilities do not justify the development of an extensive missile shield covering all Europe and the US, since Tehran poses more of a threat in the Gulf region and to Israel rather than Paris or Washington, a missile defence expert has said.

EU points to oil reserves after Iran threat

The European Commission has noted that "there is a lot of oil around" inside reserves in EU countries even if Iran makes good on threats to stop shipments next week.

EU countries preparing oil ban on Iran

A Greek official has indicated that Athens would back an oil embargo on Iran, setting the stage for a positive decision by EU countries at the end of the month.

EU unready for Iran oil ban, Syria intervention

Crisis-hit Greece has said 'No' to an EU oil ban on Iran, causing relief among other member states. France, the most hawkish EU country on the Middle East, has also toned down ideas for outside intervention in Syria.

Opinion

Punish Belarus too for aiding Putin's Ukraine war

While Belarus has not sent its own troops to fight Russia's war in Ukraine, the Minsk dictatorship has been heavily involved. As a result, Belarus must be punished for its involvement — what can the world do to sanction Belarus?

Latest News

  1. EU ministers go to Kyiv to downplay fears on US, Slovak aid
  2. Hoekstra faces tough questioning to be EU Green chief
  3. Frontex shared personal data of NGO staff with Europol six times
  4. Why EU Commission dumped Google's favourite consultant
  5. Slovak's 'illiberal' Fico victory boosts Orbán, but faces checks
  6. European Political Community and key media vote This WEEK
  7. Is the ECB sabotaging Europe's Green Deal?
  8. The realists vs idealists Brussels battle on Ukraine's EU accession

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of MinistersThe Nordic Region is stepping up its efforts to reduce food waste
  2. International Medical Devices Regulators Forum (IMDRF)Join regulators, industry & healthcare experts at the 24th IMDRF session, September 25-26, Berlin. Register by 20 Sept to join in person or online.
  3. UNOPSUNOPS begins works under EU-funded project to repair schools in Ukraine
  4. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsGeorgia effectively prevents sanctions evasion against Russia – confirm EU, UK, USA
  5. International Medical Devices Regulators Forum (IMDRF)Join regulators & industry experts at the 24th IMDRF session- Berlin September 25-26. Register early for discounted hotel rates
  6. Nordic Council of MinistersGlobal interest in the new Nordic Nutrition Recommendations – here are the speakers for the launch

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of Ministers20 June: Launch of the new Nordic Nutrition Recommendations
  2. International Sustainable Finance CentreJoin CEE Sustainable Finance Summit, 15 – 19 May 2023, high-level event for finance & business
  3. ICLEISeven actionable measures to make food procurement in Europe more sustainable
  4. World BankWorld Bank Report Highlights Role of Human Development for a Successful Green Transition in Europe
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic summit to step up the fight against food loss and waste
  6. Nordic Council of MinistersThink-tank: Strengthen co-operation around tech giants’ influence in the Nordics

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us