EU leaders are gathering on Monday (3 February) to discuss European defence and transatlantic relations at the Palais d’Egmont in Brussels in an informal context, deemed a “retreat”.
This new format, proposed by EU Council president António Costa, is expected to allow leaders to have more strategic discussions, without the need to agree on the wording that goes into conclusions.
Nato chief Mark Rutte is expected to attend for lunch, and UK PM Keir Starmer for dinner. Defence has become a key focus in post-Brexit relations with Starmer, but most EU countries still seek a broader package that extends UK-EU cooperation beyond security.
The leaders’ retreat comes three weeks ahead of the third anniversary of Russia’s war in Ukraine. And it also follows new hybrid attacks in the Baltic Sea, prompting Nato to increase its presence in the area. At least 11 undersea cables have been damaged since October 2023, according to AP.
“This geopolitical context, which is also marked by the situation in the Middle East, will remain challenging in the foreseeable future,” EU Council president António Costa said in its invitation letter to member states.
EU leaders are expected to push for unity on their relationship with Washington — whether on trade, security, defence, or other geopolitical tensions.
But with US president Donald Trump back in the White House and calls for Ukraine peace talks growing louder, Brussels is also determined to secure a seat at the negotiating table.
“Any decision involving Ukraine must be made with Europe,” an EU senior diplomat said.
Talks will also focus on identifying gaps in Europe’s defence capabilities, exploring potential joint projects, and strengthening the continent’s military industry to enhance autonomy and reduce reliance on Washington.
But financing is the crux in the EU’s shift to a wartime footing.
Last year, the EU Commission noted that an estimated €500bn in additional defence will be needed over the next decade. But there is no agreement on where the money is going to come from.
A group of 19 EU member states have asked the European Investment Bank (EIB) to “re-evaluate” its lending policy, which allows investment into dual-use goods, such as drones, but not weapons or defence systems.
But the EIB has been hesitant so far, arguing that some investors, like pension funds, avoid investing in defence and that changing its mandate could jeopardise its ratings.
Another option under consideration is loosening investment and fiscal rules to boost flows into the defence sector.
“And the European Defence Fund can also help, even if we know it's more about border protection than direct investment,” a diplomat said.
Although some EU countries are advocating to keep all options on the table when it comes to financing, plans for common debt have been initially rejected. This is currently “irresponsible,” another senior EU diplomat said.
According to the Draghi report, “if all EU member states who are Nato members and who have not yet reached the two percent target were to do so in 2024, defence spending would rise by €60bn”.
Italy, Belgium, Croatia, Luxembourg, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain are still falling short of this target.
But diplomats hope to achieve a common understanding on Monday of the need to increase defence spending.
EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas and Rutte will continue the discussion on Ukraine and defence at a separate meeting on Thursday.
On Wednesday, the EU Commission is set to present plans to tackle challenges with e-commerce platforms as the number do purchases online keeps growing.
And the European Commission's official visit to Poland for the start of the EU Council presidency will take place on Thursday and Friday in Gdańsk, following a delay due to president Ursula von der Leyen's health.
During the visit, the College of Commissioners will meet with the Polish PM Donald Tusk’s government to discuss the priorities for the six-month presidency. Warsaw has made clear that security remains at the top of its agenda.
On Monday, there will be the constitutive meeting of the European Parliament’s new special committee on the European Democracy Shield, where MEPs will monitor the EU’s toolbox to counter foreign interference.
And Laura Kövesi, the EU's chief prosecutor, and Yannic Hulot, Eurofisc chair, will discuss with MEPs in tax matter subcommittee the role of the European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO) and Eurofisc tackling VAT fraud in the EU. This will be followed by an exchange of views with the EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra.
This week, several commissioners are also expected to meet with the UN high commissioner for refugees, Filippo Grandi. This comes after EU home affairs ministers' discussion failed to shed light on the concept of ‘return hubs’ last week.
Meanwhile, the EU's own ambassadors from all around the world will fly into Brussels to discuss EU foreign affairs and security policy.
In Washington, Trump will receive Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House on Tuesday. Netanyahu will be the first foreign leader to meet Trump since the inauguration. His visit follows Trump's proposal to “clean out” the Gaza Strip and move Palestinians out to Jordan and Egypt.
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization's executive board is meeting in Geneva this week where it is expected to address Trump's decision to withdraw the United States from the organisation. The US is the biggest WHO donor (contributing with $1.2bn in 2022-2023), but it accuses the organisation of mishandling Covid-19.
Also on Monday, Greenland's parliament is back in session in Nuuk after its winter break, and it's the first meeting since Trump once again brought up claims to buy — or even forcibly take — the island.
Elena is EUobserver's editor-in-chief. She is from Spain and has studied journalism and new media in Spanish and Belgian universities. Previously she worked on European affairs at VoteWatch Europe and the Spanish news agency EFE.
Elena is EUobserver's editor-in-chief. She is from Spain and has studied journalism and new media in Spanish and Belgian universities. Previously she worked on European affairs at VoteWatch Europe and the Spanish news agency EFE.