Is Ukraine's EU accession dependent on Zelensky being there?

History has shown that individuals make a difference when courage and determination are required in dark times. Ukraine’s EU accession process is not about Volodymyr Zelensky as a person, however. It is about the Ukrainian people defending Europe’s way of life.

President Zelensky formally requested EU membership for Ukraine just days after Vladimir Putin launched his full military assault in February 2022, attempting to force the young democracy back into the past of his 'Russian World'.

EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen provided a clear response: an independent Ukraine belongs to the European family. Dissent within the European Council was overcome, and in June 2024, formal accession procedures opened.

To this day, many Ukrainians associate the EU with security, even though the accession process is lengthy and the bloc’s mutual assistance clause — enshrined in Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) — is by no means equivalent to Nato's Article 5. 

Zelensky, aware of this reality, is currently offering his position in exchange for Nato membership for Ukraine.

His prioritisation of security guarantees over his presidency is his response to Russia’s latest propaganda attempt: Moscow claims that Zelensky is no longer the legitimate president after his term expired, deliberately ignoring Ukraine’s constitution extending the presidential term during wartime, as well as the precarious security situation and millions of displaced Ukrainians.

Trump's 'dictator' diatribe

The Russian narrative became even more apparent when US president Donald Trump echoed it, as if a free and fair presidential election were at present possible, moreover claiming that Zelensky supposedly has the support of only four percent of Ukrainians.

In fact, Zelensky was elected in a democratic vote that Russians have only been able to dream of since 2012, and a recent poll shows 69 percent of Ukrainians standing behind him.

Now the US discrediting the very people who have maintained a functioning state under full-scale war for three long years adds to the long list of challenges Ukrainian society must navigate. 

With his proposal, Zelensky has neutralised this hybrid attack on Ukraine’s unity.

However, since the ongoing US-Russia “negotiations” exclude Ukraine and offer no sign of the Kremlin’s willingness for peace — and since Ukraine’s Nato membership will not happen quickly — it is crucial for European states to step up supporting Ukraine’s defence and enhance their own defence capabilities.

Ukraine should be an integral part of this effort.

The Kremlin is holding firm to its maximalist demands, seeking control not just over Ukraine but also over broader parts of Europe — despite its spokesperson’s current claims to the contrary.

Defending Ukraine’s sovereignty will have ramifications beyond Ukraine itself. Other authoritarian regimes are closely watching to see whether Russia will be stopped from redrawing internationally recognised borders and subjugating Ukrainians by force.

It is now up to the Europeans, who should keep the US as engaged as possible in this goal, and at the same time expand their own capabilities — both to counter Russia’s attacks on European security and unity in the short term and to deter future aggression in the long run. Preventing a larger war requires strategic foresight now.

Ukraine’s EU membership 'never personal'

The EU’s decision to offer Ukraine the membership perspective was never to Zelensky personally; it was a political signal to the Ukrainian people, who have stood in the way of Russia’s aggression.

Moreover, it was a far-sighted geopolitical defence strategy for all Europeans in the face of Russian neo-imperialism. Ukraine plays a key role in securing the future of Europe — in terms of security, freedom, and prosperity. 

Socially, because the people who have endured three years of relentless Russian attacks need a future worth holding on for. Politically and economically, because Ukraine and its allies are reforming institutions and procedures in the midst of war, using EU membership as a guiding framework — for example, in modernising public administration or decentralising energy supply.

From a security standpoint, because it is both wise and necessary to integrate battle-tested Ukraine into Europe’s security architecture, especially with the future role of Nato uncertain.

Both Ukraine and the EU must improve their respective capacities to ensure that this integration is successful and sustainable. For Ukraine, this means maintaining its defence while simultaneously advancing critical reforms. For the EU, it means improving its functionality.

Until now, transatlantic partners saw EU integration and reconstruction as vital for stability. With US support frozen, the EU may have to take on greater responsibility for sustaining Ukraine’s reforms.

Foreign aid has been crucial for the rule of law, regional development, and reconstruction, and Ukraine now faces even greater resource constraints amid capacity challenges. Given that most of Ukraine’s state revenues are directed toward national defence, its government has little fiscal flexibility.

At present, European and Ukrainian officials are working through the legal and procedural requirements of the accession process.

Ukraine has developed roadmaps for democratic institution-building, rule-of-law reforms, and public administration reform. The EU is now setting benchmarks to ensure that Ukrainian reforms align with what is feasible and meaningful within a wartime context, as well as with its own requirements.

Putin and his regime have been attacking Europe’s security and unity for years — initially through indirect means, but since 2021 in an unmistakable and aggressive push for control over large parts of Europe. Europeans should respond with constructive unity and pragmatic action.

If the EU does its part to ensure Ukraine’s accession — contingent on Ukraine fulfilling fundamental criteria — it will be a signal of commitment to the values that have underpinned Europe’s success, enshrined in Article 2 TEU. European countries have the power to stand strong together and to isolate those within their ranks who seek to benefit from both Russia and the EU at the same time.

Today, they are in the unfamiliar position of being pressured simultaneously by Putin’s Russia and Trump’s America—both in different ways, but both with consequences for Europe’s security and unity.

Successfully integrating Ukraine into EU governance and security structures is therefore of fundamental importance. It is the key to ensuring security, stability, and prosperity for the entire continent.

Moreover, Ukraine can contribute to Europe’s competitiveness, as is now evident from the Trump team’s current efforts to strike a “deal” on access to its plentiful resources.