Born into war: How Ukraine's demographic crisis became a catastrophe

The images of the bombing of a maternity hospital in Mariupol by Russian forces in 2022, which made headlines worldwide, are hard to forget. Children are still being found in the rubble today.

But Ukraine had a demographic problem even before Russia-s full-scale invasion — and the war is turning a crisis into a catastrophe. 

With peace talks gaining momentum, experts warn that even a swift end to the war may not be enough to reverse the long-term effects of mass displacement, falling birth rates, and the loss of a generation of young families and potential parents."

"It is futile to hope for peace in the coming years. If any truce is achieved, it will not be so long that it will be possible to influence demographic processes … Ukraine faces demographic challenges that no other country has ever faced," Oleksandr Gladun, a doctor of economics at Ukraine's Institute for Demography and Social Studies told EUobserver.

According to Gladun, the demographic situation of Ukraine will be influenced not only by the war and economic and social development, but also by demographic policies which he described as a "long game".

"A peace settlement might bring a short-term population increase, as a significant number of war refugees could return. However, in the long run, we will probably see a resumption of population shrinkage," Sebastian Klüsener, a researcher at the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB) in Germany, told EUobserver.

"The demographic developments of the past 35 years, and their impact on the current age structure, are likely to leave a deep and lasting mark on Ukraine’s future population trends – most likely resulting in continued population decline," Klüsener added.

Ukraine's population has been in decline since the early 1990s, when it peaked at around 52 million people.

The Sovie Union's subsequent collapse led to a severe economic crisis, prompting many people to have fewer children and emigrate in search of a better life.

Following Russia's 2014 invasion of Crimea and the war in Ukraine's Donbas region, Ukraine's population decline began to accelerate.

And in the years leading up to the full-scale invasion in 2022, the Covid-19 pandemic became one of the leading causes of death in the country, triggering a sharp decline in Ukraine's life expectancy.

'The demographic developments of the past 35 years, and their impact on the current age structure, are likely to leave a deep and lasting mark on Ukraine’s future population trends – most likely resulting in continued population decline'

As a result, estimates suggest that Ukraine lost some 9 million people in just 20 years (from 46.1 million people in 2013 down to 37.7 million in 2023, according to UN data) – one of the sharpest population declines in modern European history.

At the beginning of 2025, it is estimated that about 31 million people are living in the country, including the territories occupied by Russia. 

Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 further intensified the crisis, with high mortality rates and the fertility rate plunging to just one child per woman — the lowest in Europe and among the lowest globally, according to the UN.

This is, however, common for most large-scale military conflicts, Gladun explained. 

The rise in mortality is attributed to soldiers dying at the front, civilians killed by missile and drone attacks, and higher deaths from worsened chronic illnesses, stress, and limited access to medical care. 

While the figures of casualties of troops and civilians related to the war in Ukraine are not fully public, it is estimated that the mortality rate is almost three times higher than the birth rate. 

In September 2024, a CIA report stated that Ukraine has the highest mortality rate and the lowest birth rate in the world, but some experts remain sceptical, while admitting that it is probably not far from reality.

Meanwhile, if the decline in birth rates reflects a natural response to the ongoing war, it is also affected by the breakdown of family relationships.

However, according to Gladun, the biggest impact on the population is migration. 

Almost 7 million people, mostly women and children, have fled the country since February 2022 and are likely to stay in a host country under the right conditions. 

The EU Commission's statistical office, Eurostat, estimates that 4.3 million people reside in EU countries, making up 0.95 percent of the total EU population.

According to a survey carried out by the research agency Info Sapiens in Kyiv and commissioned by the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), also in Kyiv, in November–December 2024, fewer than half (43 percent) of Ukrainians living abroad plan to return to Ukraine.

Klüsener also refers to a 2023 survey that shows an increasing number of refugees who would like to stay in Germany in the long-term.

While only 39 percent expressed this desire in summer 2022, the figure rose to 52 percent by summer 2023.

"These numbers are likely to increase further, the longer the war lasts and the better refugees become integrated into the host society," the German researcher said.

'Everyone is afraid'

Everyone is impacted by war in different ways.

But those who stay in the country, specially children and women — who are key to any country's demographic collapse during a conflict — are often the most vulnerable, partly given the exposure to physical violence, psychological trauma, economic hardship, and displacement.

"While researching the childbearing in unsafe conditions of war in Ukraine, we found various generative strategies: postponing the birth of a child for better times (and safe period), having a child to continue the family line, having a child after a previous postponement (due to fear of no having better chance later), having a child as a replacement for a lost child or pregnancy, refusing to give birth," said Svitlana Aksyonova, a researcher at Ukraine’s Institute for Demography and Social Studies.

But despite the constant shelling and the uncertainty about their future, women in Ukraine continue to bring children into the world. 

Tatiana (33 years' old), who gave birth to her first child in February at a perinatal centre in Chernihiv,  located two hours from Kyiv near the border with Belarus, shared with EUobserver the difficulty of bringing new life into a time of war. 

"It's incredibly hard, especially since the father of my child is a soldier. But I don't know how long this war will last, so there was no time to delay [having this child] any longer," she said.

"Everyone is afraid," said Chris (27), a mother-of-two, who gave birth to her second child in February.

Delivering under fire

Likewise, Vira Tselyk, a doctor who works at a perinatal centre in Chernihiv, recalls the first days of the full-scale invasion as being "terrifying".

Bombs exploded close to the hospital, and outside, as temperatures plummeted to 10 degrees below zero and, inside, there was no electricity, heating, or hot water. 

Pregnant women, the ones who had just delivered babies and newborns were forced to hide in the hospital shelter during the initial days of the Russian occupation, which lasted until April 2022.

Dozens gave birth underground under very difficult conditions, she recalls.

"It was easier to deliver babies in these conditions than to explain what was happening," Tselyk told EUobserver. 

Like many who sought to support the Ukrainian army, her experience was turned into a book titled 40 Days in the Shelter, which she sells to raise funds for the military.

The war has also led to a rise in premature births, with doctors reporting that stress, fear, and social tensions caused by the war have taken a significant toll on pregnant women.

According to Galyna Leontiivna, the medical director and coordinator of the mobile gynaecological team, the premature birth rate at a perinatal centre in Chernihiv, has seen a noticeable increase since 2022 — rising from 6.5 percent back then to 8.7 percent in 2024. 

Ageing population

Meanwhile, projections suggest that the share of individuals aged 65 and older could increase from 17 percent in 2020 to 22 percent by 2040, while the proportion of children and working-age adults is expected to decline.

This shift may pose challenges for the country's pension fund, labour market and social systems, although countries such as Canada or Luxembourg show that a large population is not needed to have a high quality of life.

"A Ukraine with 15–20 million inhabitants still has the potential to prosper," said Klüsener.

For Gladun, demographic policies should be aimed at reducing the rate of population decline, or at best, stabilisation.

"This may take up to 25–30 or more years, depending on the course of the war. In general, we need to draw a conditional line under our past and develop a socio-economic model for the functioning of a state with a population of about 30 million people," he said.

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