Saturday

25th Feb 2017

Opinion

EU’s 2030 climate plans based on flawed analysis

  • The European Commission unveiled its greenhouse gas reduction targets for 2030 in January (Photo: Marina and Enrique)

Ban Ki-Moon, the United Nation's Secretary General, was in Brussels last week to champion the urgency of action on climate change.

I enjoyed his stories about dealing with frostbite on a trip to the Greenland icecap, and discovering that lifejackets are standard issue in the Kiribati islands (where the maximum altitude is 3 metres).

Dear EUobserver reader

Subscribe now for unrestricted access to EUobserver.

Sign up for 30 days' free trial, no obligation. Full subscription only 15 € / month or 150 € / year.

  1. Unlimited access on desktop and mobile
  2. All premium articles, analysis, commentary and investigations
  3. EUobserver archives

EUobserver is the only independent news media covering EU affairs in Brussels and all 28 member states.

♡ We value your support.

If you already have an account click here to login.

But I didn't think much of his enthusiasm for the EU's climate and energy plans for 2030.

“President Barroso proposed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent [by 2030]", Ban Ki-Moon said, referring to the head of the European Commission. "I strongly support this".

He went on to urge EU member states to officially adopt the European Commission’s proposal as soon as possible. But would Ban Ki-Moon – or anyone – support 40 percent with full understanding of what it means?

The commission calls 40 percent by 2030 “ambitious” and “in line with climate science”. It is not.

Seven years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommended that developed countries cut their emissions by 25-40% by 2020, increasing to 80-95% by 2050.

The commission has taken the low end of that outdated trajectory and adjusted it for 2030. The truth is that 40 percent cuts equal a fifty-fifty chance or worse of exceeding the critical threshold of 2°C of global warming. And that’s without taking into account the latest IPCC analysis, which urges even tougher action on climate change.

So much for the commission’s regard for climate science. But if you challenge commission officials on the inadequate level of action, they say we must be realistic and think about the economic impacts. “Forty percent is the most cost-efficient scenario,” they claim. This too is nonsense.

It turns out the commission assumed artificially high risks and costs for energy efficiency in its modelling of options for 2030. This made the 40 percent scenario (which has relatively little energy efficiency) look cheaper than other more ambitious scenarios.

Officials working on the dossier have also indicated that the commission only looked at the costs, not the balance of the costs and benefits, of each scenario.

For example, health benefits due to reduced air pollution were not taken into account. The economic impacts of climate change – such as flooding and loss of food production – were not even modelled. This also helped make 40 percent look like the cheapest option.

Most damning of all, the commission’s background analysis cites research from Cambridge Econometrics (a consultancy), which estimates that the 40 percent scenario would result in negative GDP impacts.

By contrast, the research shows that more ambitious emissions cuts and binding targets for renewables and energy efficiency would increase the EU’s GDP (see p81-82 of the 2030 impact assessment). These findings were ignored.

Why would the commission do this?

Senior officials lecture me that 40 percent is the best the EU can do in today's political climate. “You need to get real”, said one. President Barroso – and many commission people working on the dossier – are disgracefully defeatist.

They would rather propose a weak 40 percent target, which they think member states are more likely to support, than fight for action on the scale genuinely needed.

And they’re quite plainly prepared to be selective with the truth to justify 40 percent.

Ban Ki-Moon would hopefully re-think his strategy if he knew all this. The problem is that, for now, he wants the EU to adopt an official position on 2030 as soon as possible.

He hopes this will inspire other big emitters – China, the US – to come up with targets of their own, in time to broker an international deal at the Paris climate summit next year.

This approach only makes sense if the EU's position is up to the task. Whatever the EU does on climate change is seen as the gold standard – other big emitters will almost certainly aim lower.

So unless the EU adopts a much higher target than the commission's pitifully weak 40 percent, the result will be a chain reaction of even weaker commitments from other countries.

This could cost us the fight on climate change.

The writer is climate and energy campaigner at Friends of the Earth Europe

Green groups unhappy with EU climate proposals

The European Commission’s latest climate proposals fall short of the mark, say pro-green groups, following a UN report, which warned of irreversible consequences of a warming planet.

EU proposes 'affordable' climate targets

The EU commission has put out new greenhouse gas targets designed not to damage its economy, while upholding its status as a world leader on climate change.

Massive EU gas investment a mistake

Europe's massive investment plan – some €200 billion – in gas-related infrastructure is a huge misstep that does not address the challenge of Europe's energy demands or climate change commitments.

Column / Brexit Briefing

Searching for a voice and a standard bearer

As Britons come to terms with the reality of Brexit many Remainers are now listless, looking for someone to present a viable alternative to Theresa May's dominance

The crisis we face in the Lake Chad Basin

With no end in sight to this crisis, humanitarian actors must call for concerted engagement of political, developmental and security actors to help stabilise the region, writes the head of the UN migration agency.

News in Brief

  1. Spanish court jails former IMF chief Rato
  2. Macron proposes Nordic-style economic model for France
  3. Germany posts record high budget surplus
  4. Labour ousts Ukip in Brexit homeland
  5. Dutch lower house approves EU-Ukraine treaty
  6. WTO says Russian pork ban was illegal
  7. Belgian nuclear plant made 'significant progress' on safety
  8. Report: Commission gauging EU support for Poland sanctions

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. EURORDISJoin the Rare Disease Day and Help to Advocate for More Research on Rare Diseases
  2. European Healthy Lifestyle AllianceStudents Who Are Considered Fit Get Better Grades in School
  3. QS World MBA TourMeet with Leading International Business Schools in Paris on March 4th
  4. Malta EU 2017Economic Governance: Agreement Reached on Structural Reform Support Programme for Member States
  5. Socialists & DemocratsWomen Have to Work Ten Years Longer to Match Lifetime Earnings of Men
  6. Counter BalanceTrans-Adriatic Pipeline Is a Major Risk for Banks, Warns New Analysis
  7. Martens CentreEU and US Migration Policies Compared: Join the Debate on February 28th
  8. Swedish EnterprisesTechnology and Data Flows - Shaping the Society of Tomorrow
  9. UNICEFNearly 1.4 Million Children at Risk of Death as Famine Looms Across Africa and Yemen
  10. Malta EU 2017End of Roaming Fees: Council Reaches Agreement on Wholesale Caps
  11. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic Innovation House Opens in New York to Help Startups Access US Market
  12. Centre Maurits CoppietersMinorities and Migrations

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Salzburg Global SeminarThe Child in the City: Health, Parks and Play
  2. UNICEFNumber of Ukrainian Children Needing Aid Nearly Doubles to 1 Million Over the Past Year
  3. Centre Maurits CoppietersThe Situation of Refugee Women in Europe
  4. Salzburg Global SeminarToward a Shared Culture of Health: Charting the Patient-Clinician Relationship
  5. European Free AllianceAustria Should Preserve & Promote Bilingual and Multinational Carinthia
  6. Martens CentreShow Your Love for Democracy! Take Part in Our Contest: "If It's Broken, Let's Fix It"
  7. CISPECloud Computing Leaders Establish Data Protection Standards to Protect Customer Data
  8. Malta EU 2017Landmark Deal Reached With European Parliament on Portability of Online Content
  9. Belgrade Security ForumBSF 2017: Building a Common Future in the Age of Uncertainty
  10. CESIEU Not to Revise the Working Time Directive
  11. International Partnership for Human RightsAzerbaijan: 76 NGOs Urge the EU to Use President's Visit to Insist on Human Rights Reforms
  12. UNICEFDeadliest Winter for Migrant Children Crossing the Central Mediterranean