Tuesday

28th Mar 2023

Russian gas less mighty than it looks, EU says

  • Oettinger: 'no household in the EU has to be left out in the cold' (Photo: qwertyuiop)

A Russian gas cut-off would have a “substantial impact” on eastern Europe, but even the most vulnerable countries - Bulgaria, Estonia, and Finland - could get through the winter.

The European Commission “stress test”, published in Brussels on Thursday (16 October), estimated what would happen if there was no Russian gas for the next six months.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Become an expert on Europe

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

It noted that Bulgaria and Finland would end up with gas supply shortfalls of 100 percent, while Estonia would miss 73 percent.

Lithuania (59%), Hungary (35%), Romania (31%), Poland (28%), Greece (18%), Slovakia (17%), Latvia (15%), and Croatia (12%) would also suffer.

But the impact is less worrying than it looks at first glance due to possibilities of: tapping storage vats (currently 90% full in most of Europe); using interconnectors to move gas round the EU; buying more liquid gas on world markets; boosting imports from Norway; and switching to other fuels, such as biomass.

Latvia, for instance, buys 100 percent of its gas from Russia. But it also hosts a massive storage facility - Incukalns - which is filled up every summer and which normally sells gas back to Russia in winter.

Lithuania also gets all its gas from Russia, but is set to open a liquid gas terminal at Port of Klaipeda in December.

Meanwhile, gas accounts for just 10 percent of the total energy mix in Estonia and Finland. Estonia relies primarily on its own oil shale, while Finland uses a mixture of fossil fuels, nuclear, hydro, and wind power.

The survey said the Baltic and some central European states might have to curb power supplies to “non-protected customers [non-households], particularly towards the end of the modelled period”.

It also said the greater imports of liquid gas would come at a price.

But it added that Finland could “replace all the [Russian] gas volumes without the need to curtail demand”.

The study said Bulgaria, which is “long on electricity”, could trade it for Greek gas “to keep both sectors stable in the two member states”.

Bulgaria might also be allowed to keep its Varna coal plant running beyond the agreed closure date of 31 December.

Energy commissioner Gunther Oettinger told press: “If we work together, show solidarity and implement the recommendations of this report, no household in the EU has to be left out in the cold”.

"We can show to our Russian partners there is no point in using gas as a political strategy because we’re ready for it”.

He said the worst case scenario is “unlikely” and added that he is “optimistic” Russia and Ukraine will clinch a deal on winter prices “by next week”, safeguarding EU transit.

EU countries had asked for the stress test back in May due to the Ukraine conflict.

The EU’s most severe sanctions options on Russia involve stopping purchases of oil and gas if the war continues to escalate.

EU leaders meeting in Brussels on 23 and 24 October will also discuss energy security.

Draft conclusions dated 13 October and seen by EUobserver speak of “a possible major disruption [of Russian gas supplies] in the upcoming winter”.

The leaders are to agree “urgent measures” to reach an old target of having electricity interconnectors capable of carrying 10 percent of installed capacity.

They are to boost the target to 15 percent by 2030.

They also aim to give the commission more of a say when EU states negotiate supply contracts with Russia in future.

“In order to increase the EU's bargaining power in the energy negotiations … member states and involved companies provide relevant information to the commission and systematically seek its advice throughout negotiations”, the draft text notes.

Opinion

Biden's 'democracy summit' poses questions for EU identity

From the perspective of international relations, the EU is a rare bird indeed. Theoretically speaking it cannot even exist. The charter of the United Nations, which underlies the current system of global governance, distinguishes between states and organisations of states.

Opinion

EU's new critical raw materials act could be a recipe for conflict

Solar panels, wind-turbines, electric vehicle batteries and other green technologies require minerals including aluminium, cobalt and lithium — which are mined in some of the most conflict-riven nations on earth, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, and Kazakhstan.

Latest News

  1. Biden's 'democracy summit' poses questions for EU identity
  2. Finnish elections and Hungary's Nato vote in focus This WEEK
  3. EU's new critical raw materials act could be a recipe for conflict
  4. Okay, alright, AI might be useful after all
  5. Von der Leyen pledges to help return Ukrainian children
  6. EU leaders agree 1m artillery shells for Ukraine
  7. Polish abortion rights activist vows to appeal case
  8. How German business interests have shaped EU climate agenda

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic and Baltic ways to prevent gender-based violence
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: Economic gender equality now! Nordic ways to close the pension gap
  3. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: Pushing back the push-back - Nordic solutions to online gender-based violence
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: The Nordics are ready to push for gender equality
  5. Promote UkraineInvitation to the National Demonstration in solidarity with Ukraine on 25.02.2023
  6. Azerbaijan Embassy9th Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council Ministerial Meeting and 1st Green Energy Advisory Council Ministerial Meeting

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us