A Russian gas cut-off would have a “substantial impact” on eastern Europe, but even the most vulnerable countries - Bulgaria, Estonia, and Finland - could get through the winter.
The European Commission “stress test”, published in Brussels on Thursday (16 October), estimated what would happen if there was no Russian gas for the next six months.
It noted that Bulgaria and Finland would end up with gas supply shortfalls of 100 percent, while Estonia would miss 73 percent.
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Andrew Rettman is EUobserver's foreign editor, writing about foreign and security issues since 2005. He is Polish, but grew up in the UK, and lives in Brussels. He has also written for The Guardian, The Times of London, and Intelligence Online.