The European People's Party (EPP), Socialists & Democrats (S&D) and liberal Renew Europe are expected to maintain a majority (with 397 projected MEPs), even though all groups would see losses, according to our final pre-election polling collaborative project Pollwatch.
With a so-called 'greenlash' led by farmers’ protests against Europe’s environmental agenda, the Greens are poised to suffer the biggest hit, losing 22 seats from their current 71 — but liberal Renew Europe is facing similar losses.
Meanwhile, the nationalist-rightwing European Conservatives & Reformists (ECR) and unaffiliated MEPs rising sharply — the latter mostly driven by far-right Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) suspension from the extreme-right Identity and Democracy (ID).
For weeks, there has been much speculation about the composition of the next political groups, with some suggesting the possibility of further fragmentation, potentially resulting in a total of nine groups instead of the current seven.
Progressive forces are increasingly concerned that the German EPP EU Commission president candidate, Ursula von der Leyen, appears to be cosying up to Italian prime minister Georgia Meloni, especially considering that one of the largest groups within Meloni's ECR family is Poland’s Law & Justice (PiS) — a party known for dismantling the rule of law in the country over its past administration.
But voting stability plays a crucial role in coalition building, and according to EU Matrix data, ECR holds the second-to-last position in this regard.
It is only after the election results are somehow digested that political parties will begin behind-the-scenes negotiations to decide which political group to join — leading to potential shifts in the balance of power.
The EPP, which was once home to Hungarian prime minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, is expected to welcome some five MEPs from former Fidesz's official Péter Magyar's newcomer TISZA party.
Meanwhile, far-right French leader Marine Le Pen, whose political party National Rally sits in ID, has invited Meloni to join forces and create a new, potentially larger, EU far-right group — an old dream of many, including Orbán, which never previously turned into reality given their differences and nationalistic focus.
“Far-right leaders are making a lot of noise, but will they be a defining force in the European Parliament? No, the EU elections won't give the EU away to the far-right - but there's a risk for normalisation,” according to Alberto Alemanno, professor of EU Law at HEC Paris and College of Europe.
In this context, it remains to be seen whether Orbán’s Fidesz party — which is projected to have some 12 MEPs — will end up in ECR or ID. Orbán has been a long-standing ally of the leader of Poland’s PiS, Mateusz Morawiecki, and both have expressed willingness to collaborate with Le Pen.
On the left side, Germany’s new left-conservative party led by Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), expected to secure seven seats, has announced plans to establish a new parliamentary group.
This alliance could potentially include Slovakia’s Smer and Hlas, projected to secure four and two MEPs respectively. Both parties were suspended from S&D last year over their pro-Russian stance.
Moreover, around 15 projected MEPs from Italy’s Five Star Movement (M5S) may align with the Greens, bolstering their influence. However, reports indicate that disagreements have emerged over military assistance to Ukraine, an issue the party opposes.
Meanwhile, attention will also be on the Renew Europe vote next week when the group’s members will decide whether the Dutch liberal party VVD should be kicked out over its coalition government in the Netherlands.
While European elections often see a low turnout, with the highest recorded at just 51 percent in 2019, this time they have received increased attention, especially due to the challenges the EU has faced in recent years, mainly the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Unlike previous ballots, and mirroring national outcomes, the 2024 elections have the potential to shift the traditional power balance from progressive forces to those on the right — and either increase fragmentation or the consolidation of national conservatives and populist forces.
Historically, the EPP and the S&D have held over 50 percent of the votes. However, they had to team up with the liberal Renew Europe to make a working coalition, often dubbed a "democratic coalition,” which had its own ups and downs.
But on certain legislative proposals such as, for example, the controversial Nature Restoration Law, S&D and Renew joined forces with the Greens and The Left to pass legislation. But this vote also saw the alignment of EPP with national conservatives European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and far-right Identity and Democracy (ID), raising doubts about future green legislation.
More detailed information about the projected number of MEPs per country compared to 2019 EU elections here:
Elena is EUobserver's Managing Editor. She is from Spain and has studied journalism and new media in Spanish and Belgian universities. Previously she worked on European affairs at VoteWatch Europe and the Spanish news agency EFE.
Elena is EUobserver's Managing Editor. She is from Spain and has studied journalism and new media in Spanish and Belgian universities. Previously she worked on European affairs at VoteWatch Europe and the Spanish news agency EFE.