EU elections: the far-right surge, youth turnout, the 'greenlash' in focus This WEEK

This week will revolve around one thing and one thing only: the elections for the European Parliament, taking place across the continent from Thursday to Sunday. 

After an election campaign marked by farmer’s unrest, concerns over the EU’s economy, and controversy over far-right collaboration, European citizens will cast their votes for the next European Parliament, in what could be one of the biggest political shifts in the parliament’s history.

Breaking the centrist coalition

With polls indicating sharp gains for the far-right, the vote could result in a rightwing majority, threatening to break apart the traditional centrist ‘pro-European’ coalition consisting of the Christian Democrat European People's Party (EPP), the Socialists & Democrats (S&D) and the liberal Renew Europe, and to a lesser extent the Greens. EPP commission president candidate Ursula von der Leyen's repeated flirtations with the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) has caused progressives particular concern.

However, the vote will not directly elect the next commission president despite all Spitzenkandidat rhetoric. Nonetheless, the result could be crucial in determining the fortunes of prospective candidates, including incumbent von der Leyen’s re-election bid, as they face the task of finding a majority in a parliament that is projected to be highly divided. 

Though most EU countries will head to the polls on Sunday (9 June), in true European fashion there are several exemptions. 

The Dutch will be first to cast their ballots, with voting booths opening on Thursday, the first exit polls appearing at 9pm. Next up is Ireland on Friday, followed by Latvia, Malta and Slovakia on Saturday. Finally, there are two more outliers, where the vote is spread across two days: Friday and Saturday for Czechia, and Saturday and Sunday for Italy. A European-wide indicative result will be published at 6pm on Sunday.

Turnout issues

In spite of efforts to cast it as the high mass of European democracy, the European elections have historically been marred by low voter turnout, repeatedly dipping below 50 percent since 1999, a blight on the parliament’s legitimacy. There are strong divergences between member states, with post-2004 members typically at the bottom of the list. Belgium has consistently performed best, as voting is compulsory ánd its national and regional elections normally take place on the same day. 

The EU will be eager for a repeat of the success of 2019, when a decades-long trend of declining voter participation was reversed, partly driven by a mobilisation of under-25s voting for green parties. EU officials have set their eyes on the same demographic, partly in the hope of stemming the far-right surge, but young people’s progressive credentials have become increasingly subject to doubt.

Pollwatch projections

Amid signs of a continent-wide 'greenlash' against climate policy, the European Greens are expected to take the biggest hit, losing a whopping 21 of their current 74 seats according to the latest Pollwatch data. Liberal Renew is projected to suffer similar losses, with the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and unaffiliated MEPs rising sharply - the latter mostly driven by far-right Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) suspension from the extreme-right Identity and Democracy (ID).

Far-right gains are expected to be especially pronounced in the Netherlands and France, where ID parties poll respectively eight and 30 seats, with the ECR’s gains mainly driven by Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party (FdI). Among the few countries bucking the general rightward trend are Belgium and Sweden, expecting modest increases for parties on the left. 

French social democrat Raphael Glucksmann’s strong performance in the polls could mark a return to prominence of the French in the centre-left in Europe. Italian and Spanish MEPs will continue to dominate the group, however, with German influence most pronounced in the Greens and centre-right. The polls also indicate a possible slackening of French president Emmanuel Macron’s control over the Renew group, with the Renaissance party dropping from 13 to 8 seats. 

It is safe to say that the entirety of Brussels will be fixed on the elections and their consequences for the highly-complex game of political musical chairs in divvying up the EU top jobs in the next commission, council and parliament. 

Well, not entirely: one indomitable group of diplomats will hold out and keep their focus on longer term problems, meeting in Bonn for the annual mid-year UN climate change talks taking place from 3-13 June.