Saturday

21st Sep 2019

Agenda

This WEEK in the European Union

  • Ireland will vote on the fiscal compact treaty in a referendum on Thursday (Photo: topgold)

Ireland will vote on the fiscal compact treaty on Thursday (31 May) amid a strong debate in the country about the exact consequences of a No.

Polls put the Yes camp in the lead (50 percent to 31 percent, with 19 percent still undecided according to a Red C poll conducted between 14 and 16 May).

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Ireland is the only member state to put the budget-balancing treaty to a vote, although the result will not affect the process of ratification elsewhere. The German-inspired document goes into place once 12 of the 17 eurozone countries ratify it. But a No vote could have economic consequences for the country, the recipient of a €85 billion bail-out in 2010.

A rejection would mean that Ireland would not have access to the eurozone's permanent bailout fund, the ESM - a fact that would likely make markets more jittery and negatively affect Dublin's hopes of re-entering bond trading in 2014.

The No camp say that this is scare-mongering. They argue that the treaty risks trapping the country in an austerity-driven downward spiral for years and claim that Ireland, if needed, could still ask for a loan from the International Monetary Fund.

On Wednesday, the European Commission is to publish its highly-anticipated economic policy recommendations for the 27 member states.

The recommendations will tell countries what they have to do to achieve the agreed economic priorities for 2012. Of particular interest will be what Brussels sets out for Spain, which is widely seen as unlikely to make its deficit-cutting target for next year amid worsening economic conditions, and France, the eurozone's second largest economy. In addition to the "country specific" reports, the commission will also publish in-depth reviews of 12 economies suffering from imbalances, including Spain, France, the UK, Italy and Finland.

Immigration issues will also feature heavily this week.

The EU's finger-printing system for asylum seekers will be given an upgrade on Wednesday, so that rules on when and how data should be entered and accessed are clearer.

The commission will also publish a report on immigration trends and a poll on migration, security and cross-border mobility. The data will come amid a rise in far-right and nationalist parties with anti-immigrant platforms. In the 6 May Greek election, the neo-facist and xenophobic New Dawn party won 7 percent of the vote, getting itself into parliament for the first time.

Meanwhile, the leaders of the political groups in the European Parliament will meet the Cypriot President and other Cypriot politicians ahead of the divided island taking over the six month EU presidency in just over a month's time.

European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi will also appear before the parliament's economic affairs committee on Thursday.

Draghi has recently begun making statements about the importance of further integration in the eurozone. But Spain has said that any moves the ECB makes to lower Madrid's borrowing costs, which are hovering near bail-out levels, would be more important than talk of long term integration.

Europe goes to New York This WEEK

Iran and climate change likely to dominate as French president Emmanuel Macron speaks for Europe at the UN general assembly in New York this week.

Brexit and new commission in focus This WEEK

Jean-Claude Juncker will meet Boris Johnson for the first time, but no breakthrough is expected in Brexit talks. MEPs are preparing to hear from the commission-designates, while Hungary will be grilled at the EU affairs' ministers meeting.

New commission unveiled This WEEK

After weeks of consultations, Ursula von der Leyen will put forward her commission on Tuesday, as London's Brexit drama keeps rumbling on in the background in Brussels.

Lagarde and Brexit centre stage This WEEK

The ECB's possible next chief will appear before the EU parliament, as political life resumes in Brussels. In London, MPs could mount a no-confidence vote against Johnson.

EU goes on holiday as new UK PM arrives This WEEK

Boris Johnson is almost certain to become the UK's next prime minister, and oversee Brexit until the 31 October deadline, as work in the EU bubble is winding down for the summer.

Von der Leyen vote the focus This WEEK

MEPs will vote to confirm - or not - on Tuesday the new commission president, Ursula von der Leyen - a candidate put forward at the last minute by the EU leaders, and grilled by lawmakers recently in Brussels.

News in Brief

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  5. UK Brexit minister to meet Barnier on Friday
  6. Russia-Ukraine gas deal talks show 'progress'
  7. Nobel economist: Ireland 'not good EU citizen' on taxes
  8. Germany takes carbon border tax on board

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