Wednesday

31st May 2023

Agenda

This WEEK in the European Union

  • Ireland will vote on the fiscal compact treaty in a referendum on Thursday (Photo: topgold)

Ireland will vote on the fiscal compact treaty on Thursday (31 May) amid a strong debate in the country about the exact consequences of a No.

Polls put the Yes camp in the lead (50 percent to 31 percent, with 19 percent still undecided according to a Red C poll conducted between 14 and 16 May).

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Ireland is the only member state to put the budget-balancing treaty to a vote, although the result will not affect the process of ratification elsewhere. The German-inspired document goes into place once 12 of the 17 eurozone countries ratify it. But a No vote could have economic consequences for the country, the recipient of a €85 billion bail-out in 2010.

A rejection would mean that Ireland would not have access to the eurozone's permanent bailout fund, the ESM - a fact that would likely make markets more jittery and negatively affect Dublin's hopes of re-entering bond trading in 2014.

The No camp say that this is scare-mongering. They argue that the treaty risks trapping the country in an austerity-driven downward spiral for years and claim that Ireland, if needed, could still ask for a loan from the International Monetary Fund.

On Wednesday, the European Commission is to publish its highly-anticipated economic policy recommendations for the 27 member states.

The recommendations will tell countries what they have to do to achieve the agreed economic priorities for 2012. Of particular interest will be what Brussels sets out for Spain, which is widely seen as unlikely to make its deficit-cutting target for next year amid worsening economic conditions, and France, the eurozone's second largest economy. In addition to the "country specific" reports, the commission will also publish in-depth reviews of 12 economies suffering from imbalances, including Spain, France, the UK, Italy and Finland.

Immigration issues will also feature heavily this week.

The EU's finger-printing system for asylum seekers will be given an upgrade on Wednesday, so that rules on when and how data should be entered and accessed are clearer.

The commission will also publish a report on immigration trends and a poll on migration, security and cross-border mobility. The data will come amid a rise in far-right and nationalist parties with anti-immigrant platforms. In the 6 May Greek election, the neo-facist and xenophobic New Dawn party won 7 percent of the vote, getting itself into parliament for the first time.

Meanwhile, the leaders of the political groups in the European Parliament will meet the Cypriot President and other Cypriot politicians ahead of the divided island taking over the six month EU presidency in just over a month's time.

European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi will also appear before the parliament's economic affairs committee on Thursday.

Draghi has recently begun making statements about the importance of further integration in the eurozone. But Spain has said that any moves the ECB makes to lower Madrid's borrowing costs, which are hovering near bail-out levels, would be more important than talk of long term integration.

Russia sanctions and EU elections on top This WEEK

The parliament's constitutional affairs committee is set to vote on a draft proposal on the number of seats in the European Parliament, and their distribution among EU countries, ahead of the 2024 elections.

Keeping China at arm's length is in focus This WEEK

The G7 aims to send a signal to China by announcing a joint effort to counter "economic coercion," with the EU hoping to avoid becoming a "vassal" in a US-China clash, as French president Emmanuel Macron said recently.

Visions of war and peace in Europe This WEEK

Russian president Vladimir Putin will cheer on a mini war-parade in Moscow on Tuesday, as German chancellor Olaf Scholz speaks of peace in Europe in Strasbourg.

Hungary's EU funds and corruption in focus This WEEK

EU budget commissioner Johannes Hahn is set to travel to Budapest on Tuesday (2 May) as negotiations to unlock billions of EU funds, held up because of concerns over judicial independence, made some progress last week.

Ammunition to, and grain from Ukraine top This WEEK

During the week, the European Parliament special committee on foreign interference is set to adopt its proposals to fight foreign actors, particularly Russia and China, using information manipulation — which is likely to increase as the 2024 European elections approach.

ECB: eurozone home prices could see 'disorderly' fall

The European Central Bank in its Financial Stability Review warned EU home prices could see a 'disorderly' fall as high mortgage rates are making houses unaffordable for households and unattractive for investors.

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