Friday

29th Mar 2024

Opinion

With Trump, this might not be fine

  • "This is fine" has been the dominant response of Europe’s political leaders to Donald Trump’s electoral victory. (Photo: Gage Skidmore)

Nothing captures the zeitgeist of 2016 better than the “This is fine” meme, depicting a dog calmly sitting at a table drinking coffee, in a room that is on fire.

The dog acts calmly, as flames continue to engulf it, before melting in the fire.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Get the EU news that really matters

Instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

“This is fine“ has also been the dominant response of Europe’s political leaders to Donald Trump’s electoral victory.

In European capitals like Warsaw, Budapest, and Bratislava, Trump’s election is being openly welcomed.

Others, including the heads of EU institutions, appreciate the possible risks but are unwilling to make any moves.

“We need to wait until we know who is cabinet picks are and what he wants to do,” a high-profile EU diplomat told me recently.

Perhaps everything will be fine.

But acting on such an assumption is reckless, particularly given what we already know about the foreign policy outlook of the new administration.

We know, for example, that Rex Tillerson, the new US secretary of state, is generally opposed to sanctions and is also a recipient of the Kremlin’s Order of Friendship.

We know that the president-elect has a reserved attitude towards Nato and America’s duty to defend allies, should they come under attack.

Neither is it a secret that Trump has peculiar ideas about trade and liberalisation and is unlikely to champion further trade liberalisation with the EU or other trading blocs around the world.

“It is not a free market,” he said recently, “when [companies] go out … sell back into our country.”

Also expect break with the age-long tradition of using America’s soft power to promote democratic values around the world.

Perhaps individually insignificant, these snippets add up to a coherent view of the world in which America abandons much of its global responsibilities.

It can no longer be expected to act as the world’s policeman, the leading voice in free-trade negotiations, nor a country that necessarily holds its friends and allies to high standards of democracy and rule of law.

From an American perspective, such a shift might or might not be a bad thing.

Trump’s specific proposals need to be assessed on their own merits, not haughtily dismissed.

Things might not be ok

However, history shows that when global hegemons become derelict in their duties, turmoil ensues.

After World War I, as the economic historian Charles Kindleberger argues, the United Kingdom was not in a position to be the world’s leading nation.

Its natural successor, the United States, was not willing to take on the responsibilities.

Both countries might have had good reasons not fill the role that was expected of them.

When the economic crisis of 1929 hit, there was no government willing to step in and prevent the Western world from descending into protectionism and competitive devaluations.

It was the near-collapse of international trade that made the Depression Great.

With nobody to organise their efforts, liberal democracies were unable to stop Mussolini and Hitler in Abyssinia, Spain, Austria, or the Sudetenland.

Today’s prospects are not necessarily as bleak. For one, we know that the president-elect cares about what people think about him – to the extent to which he is willing to respond to critics on Twitter at odd times of the day.

Trump needs to understand that he will not be remembered fondly if he presides over the demise of Nato, another Great Depression, or a world war.

European leaders need to reach out to him quickly and explain what is at stake. There might be more common ground than we imagine.

Earlier this year, Trump said he admired Angela Merkel. Like Melania Trump and Trump’s first wife, Ivana, the German chancellor was born on the other side of the Iron Curtain – and two of the president-elect’s children, Donald Jr. and Ivanka, even speak Czech.

In his foreign speech in April this year, Trump praised the role played by the United States in defeating communism.

It should not be impossible to explain to the Trump family just how much the post-Cold War order depends on America’s leadership.

More importantly, Europeans have to be prepared also to do things – to invest in their security, to step in where they know America will be absent, and to be prepared to lead by example on questions of trade liberalisation.

After all, these are the right things to do even if Trump’s administration turns out to be perfectly benign.

If it is not, however, being ready is what will stand between Europe and a geopolitical disaster of proportions unseen since 1945.

Dalibor Rohac is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author's, not those of EUobserver.

EU Modernisation Fund: an open door for fossil gas in Romania

Among the largest sources of financing for energy transition of central and eastern European countries, the €60bn Modernisation Fund remains far from the public eye. And perhaps that's one reason it is often used for financing fossil gas projects.

Why UK-EU defence and security deal may be difficult

Rather than assuming a pro-European Labour government in London will automatically open doors in Brussels, the Labour party needs to consider what it may be able to offer to incentivise EU leaders to factor the UK into their defence thinking.

Why UK-EU defence and security deal may be difficult

Rather than assuming a pro-European Labour government in London will automatically open doors in Brussels, the Labour party needs to consider what it may be able to offer to incentivise EU leaders to factor the UK into their defence thinking.

Column

EU's Gaza policy: boon for dictators, bad for democrats

While they woo dictators and autocrats, EU policymakers are becoming ever more estranged from the world's democrats. The real tragedy is the erosion of one of Europe's key assets: its huge reserves of soft power, writes Shada Islam.

Latest News

  1. Kenyan traders react angrily to proposed EU clothes ban
  2. Lawyer suing Frontex takes aim at 'antagonistic' judges
  3. Orban's Fidesz faces low-polling jitters ahead of EU election
  4. German bank freezes account of Jewish peace group
  5. EU Modernisation Fund: an open door for fossil gas in Romania
  6. 'Swiftly dial back' interest rates, ECB told
  7. Moscow's terror attack, security and Gaza
  8. Why UK-EU defence and security deal may be difficult

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of MinistersJoin the Nordic Food Systems Takeover at COP28
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersHow women and men are affected differently by climate policy
  3. Nordic Council of MinistersArtist Jessie Kleemann at Nordic pavilion during UN climate summit COP28
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersCOP28: Gathering Nordic and global experts to put food and health on the agenda
  5. Friedrich Naumann FoundationPoems of Liberty – Call for Submission “Human Rights in Inhume War”: 250€ honorary fee for selected poems
  6. World BankWorld Bank report: How to create a future where the rewards of technology benefit all levels of society?

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsThis autumn Europalia arts festival is all about GEORGIA!
  2. UNOPSFostering health system resilience in fragile and conflict-affected countries
  3. European Citizen's InitiativeThe European Commission launches the ‘ImagineEU’ competition for secondary school students in the EU.
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersThe Nordic Region is stepping up its efforts to reduce food waste
  5. UNOPSUNOPS begins works under EU-funded project to repair schools in Ukraine
  6. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsGeorgia effectively prevents sanctions evasion against Russia – confirm EU, UK, USA

Join EUobserver

EU news that matters

Join us