Tuesday

19th Mar 2024

Austrians ponder shift to far right

  • The momentum, in a populism-driven, novel Brexit and Trump world, appears to favour Hofer (Photo: Hofer's campaign)

With the rerun of the presidential election on Sunday (4 December), Austria faces a historically defining moment.

Voters are heading to the polls to elect a head of state for the third time this year, after the run-off in May was annulled because of vote-counting irregularities and a repeat scheduled for October was postponed because of faulty postal ballots.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Get the EU news that really matters

Instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

  • Van der Bellen appears to offer "more of the same" pro-EU political stability (Photo: Amélie Chapalain)

They must make a choice between two starkly contrasting contenders who could take democratic Austria in opposite directions.

On one hand, mild-mannered liberal economics professor Alexander van der Bellen has pledged to further cement Austria’s place in the European Union, preserve its international reputation and uphold human rights.

He was once the head of the Green Party and regards a flirtation with the Communist Party in his early years as a youthful indiscretion.

He recently backed off from a promise not to allow the leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPO), Heinz-Christian Strache, form a government if his party won national elections.

The parliamentary election is widely expected next year, amid sour relations within the rulig coalition of the two mainstream centrist Austrian parties.

Van der Bellen has also warned against Hofer’s “authoritarian” tendencies and a “takeover” by the far right.

On the other hand, FPO candidate Norbert Hofer, a deputy president of the Austrian parliament, has threatened to use a presidential prerogative to dismiss the government.

He also wants better ties with Russia, and envisages a leading Austrian role among central European countries, such as Hungary, which are marked by a high degree of official euroscepticism.

In a television talk show, he uttered the now-notorious phrase: “You’ll be amazed at all the things that are possible [when I am president]”.

EU referendum

Only a year ago, he appeared to welcome the notion of an Austrian referendum on EU membership, though he now says this should only happen if Turkey joins, or if the EU becomes even more politically centralised.

He takes a hard line on immigration and security, and he warns of the danger of the Islamisation of Europe.

In the European Parliament, his party is allied with far-right eurosceptic forces, such as Marine Le Pen’s Front National in France and Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom in the Netherlands.

He has warned that Van der Bellen would exacerbate the refugee crisis, which saw 90,000 asylum requests last year in Austria, a country of just over 8 million inhabitants, and would increase the risk of Islamist attacks because he is wobbly on security.

Van der Bellen appears to offer more of the same pro-EU political stability that his predecessors displayed.

Hofer, who claims Van der Bellen is supported by out-of-touch “elites”, is tapping into the populist tide washing over the West. He would be the first far-right head of state in Europe since the end of the Second World War.

Van der Bellen is predictable. Hofer is anything but.

Austria is politically split down the middle, virtually half and half.

In the annulled run-off, Van der Bellen won by a sliver of 30,000 votes - less than one percentage point.

In recent weeks, tensions have risen again. Billboards of both candidates have been defaced. Social media is awash with slurs. Derogatory accusations have been hurled by supporters of the two camps.

Momentum

The momentum, in a populism-driven, post-Brexit and pre-Trump world, appears to favour Hofer, who has said that a trait he shares with the US president-elect is “authenticity”.

Austria’s two main online betting agencies have in the last week shifted the odds of victory to significantly favour Hofer, and a recent Gallup poll placed him (52%) ahead of Van der Bellen (48%). That lead was still within the margin of error.

Another poll indicated that a sizeable majority of Austrians feel that Trump’s victory serves Hofer. Yet another found that half of all Austrians would like a “strong leader like Trump”.

Reports on Thursday that unemployment has edged down year-on-year for the month of November for the first time in five years are being eclipsed by news of record refugee arrivals in Italy.

Apparent threats by Turkey to unleash waves of refugees on the EU if political discord between the two persists have also made headlines.

A key determinant in this round will be mobilisation.

In May voter turnout was over 70 percent. There is concern in both camps that voter fatigue may dent support at the polls. That is why both candidates are billing this rerun run-off as crucial for Austria.

A fork in the road lies ahead.

Austrian candidates both seek Trump effect

Donald Trump's victory is enlivening Austria's presidential campaign - one side seizing on it as a sign that the masses are rising up, the other depicting it as a stark warning of the dangers of demagoguery.

Analysis

Austrian far-right: beaten, but not defeated

Far-right candidate Norbert Hofer's loss to Green-backed Alexander Van der Bellen sent relief across Europe, but his party is still in a good position to head a government in the future.

Finnish PM: Russia preparing for 'long conflict with West'

Finland, which shares a border with Russia, has cautioned about the danger of a Russian attack in coming years. Russia is not "invincible" but "self-satisfaction is no longer an option," Finnish prime minister Petteri Orpo said.

Opinion

How the EU can raise its game in the Middle East

Could the EU repair its reputation and credibility by taking action on Gaza? EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell, Spain, Belgium and Ireland, have worked hard to repair the damage, but have faced political headwinds due to internal divisions.

Latest News

  1. Borrell: 'Israel provoking famine', urges more aid access
  2. Europol: Israel-Gaza galvanising Jihadist recruitment in Europe
  3. EU to agree Israeli-settler blacklist, Borrell says
  4. EU ministers keen to use Russian profits for Ukraine ammo
  5. Call to change EIB defence spending rules hits scepticism
  6. Potential legal avenues to prosecute Navalny's killers
  7. EU summit, Gaza, Ukraine, reforms in focus this WEEK
  8. The present and future dystopia of political micro-targeting ads

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of MinistersJoin the Nordic Food Systems Takeover at COP28
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersHow women and men are affected differently by climate policy
  3. Nordic Council of MinistersArtist Jessie Kleemann at Nordic pavilion during UN climate summit COP28
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersCOP28: Gathering Nordic and global experts to put food and health on the agenda
  5. Friedrich Naumann FoundationPoems of Liberty – Call for Submission “Human Rights in Inhume War”: 250€ honorary fee for selected poems
  6. World BankWorld Bank report: How to create a future where the rewards of technology benefit all levels of society?

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsThis autumn Europalia arts festival is all about GEORGIA!
  2. UNOPSFostering health system resilience in fragile and conflict-affected countries
  3. European Citizen's InitiativeThe European Commission launches the ‘ImagineEU’ competition for secondary school students in the EU.
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersThe Nordic Region is stepping up its efforts to reduce food waste
  5. UNOPSUNOPS begins works under EU-funded project to repair schools in Ukraine
  6. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsGeorgia effectively prevents sanctions evasion against Russia – confirm EU, UK, USA

Join EUobserver

EU news that matters

Join us