Cairo the crux in Israel/Hamas talks during Rafah invasion

As Israel seizes control of the Rafah crossing while pushing Palestinians to the last safe square meters in the Gaza Strip through its recent evacuation order, all eyes are directed at Cairo, where mediation talks have been taking place since last October.

The Egyptian capital is now hosting the latest ceasefire negotiations, which the US is optimistic can bridge the differences between Israel and Hamas. 

This comes despite Israel’s deadly strikes and calls to evacuate Rafah, which had disregarded Hamas’s willingness to halt hostilities earlier this week.

As EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell deemed the Israeli ground operation in Rafah as “unacceptable” and some MEPs and EU countries such as Belgium call for further sanctions on Israel, the bloc continues to work with Egypt – with ceasefire talks expected to continue on Wednesday (8 May) between Cairo, Hamas, Israel, the US and Qatar. 

“While not participating directly in the negotiations, the EU continues to give all its support to the critical US-Qatar-Egypt brokered talks to reach a much-needed ceasefire,” a commission spokesperson told EUobserver.

In the last seven months of the war, senior EU representatives have visited Egypt repeatedly to engage in talks and humanitarian efforts — but also as part of their strategic partnership finalised last March to deal with irregular migration.

“Egypt is a crucial partner in addressing the crisis in the Middle East,” the commission spokesperson ensures, pointing out that the EU values the ongoing mediation efforts led by Cairo.  

“In the medium to long term, Egypt will have a role together with the Arab partners in the post-war stabilisation and reconstruction of Gaza,” he also said.

Although EU leaders were previously divided on their approach towards Egypt due to its human rights abuses and its ever-deepening economic crisis, “the geopolitical landscape has evolved, prompting a reassessment of the EU's approach towards Egypt”, the Middle East Institute member Mohammed Soliman told EUobserver. 

“The growing importance of Egypt, highlighted by its key role in Gaza-related negotiations and the newly signed strategic agreement with the EU, does signify a return of Egypt's key role in Europe’s regional vision and engagement,” Anthony Dworkin, from the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations, said.

For both experts, Egypt’s role in other fronts such as the balance of power in the eastern Mediterranean vis-à-vis Turkey, the situation in Libya, and migration to Europe further strengthens Cairo's position as a natural strategic partner for the EU in the Middle East, the Mediterranean, and Africa.

“The EU now recognises the strategic importance of partnering with Egypt,” Soliman claims.

A history of ups and downs 

Its geographic position at the crossroads of the Middle East and Africa crossroads has always granted Egypt strategic importance and made it a key partner for Europe in the region – but there have been some ups and downs in this relationship.   

“After Sisi seized power, there was some initial disruption to the relationship, as the EU made some critical statements about the use of violence against protesters and other aspects of [a] political crackdown, including the killing of the Italian researcher Giulio Regeni,” said Dworkin. 

After the deadly Rabaa incidents in 2013, the EU also decided to suspend all major aid loans to the country. 

“But European criticism was always moderated by a concern to preserve relations with Egypt, and since 2015, these relations have been normalised despite the human rights concerns,” Dworkin states. 

This willingness to maintain a good relationship with the Egyptian administrations goes back to the idea that Egypt is essential to the region's stability.

“Regardless of the nature of the regime, the EU hopes that Egypt's tendency to promote peaceful relations in the region can be adopted by other countries,” global affairs professor Ibrahim Awad told EUobserver. “If Egypt had not signed a peace agreement with Israel in 1979, the other Arab countries would not have been able to enter into peace negotiations.”

In the current situation, Egypt is likely the only country that can genuinely influence the success of the talks and the obtention of a cease of hostilities. 

Cairo’s historic ties with the people of Gaza go back to its administration of the Strip from 1949 to 1967, and it is also one of the countries that can directly mediate with the main current actor, Hamas, with whom neither the EU nor the US have relations. 

“Not having any influence on Israel either, the EU is only left with the option of relying on countries that can influence the periphery of the conflict, and Egypt is the country,” Awad said. “Either [the EU] stands still or it tries to have some influence by working with Egypt.”

‘Europe no longer centre of global power’

As other world powers are challenging the political weight of Europe and the US in the international arena, the EU has realised that it has to implement a different juggling foreign policy to remain relevant. 

“There is an indelible power shift from the West to the East, evident in the rise of China, India, Indonesia, and other Asian powers. This necessitates Brussels to leave behind its traditional geopolitical mindset and understand that Europe is no longer the centre of global power,” Soliman said. 

“In this new multipolar world, more realpolitik than virtue signalling is required,” meaning that the union should stop acting like the epitome of rights and democracy and pursue alignment with nations on some issues while disagreeing with them on others.

The India-Middle East-Europe corridor is an example of Brussels adopting a more ‘realpolitik’ approach vis-a-vis India, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. 

While organisations such as Human Rights Watch have claimed that “the EU’s upgraded bilateral partnership with Egypt risks missing an opportunity to press for human rights reforms amid the country’s ongoing economic and human rights crises”, Dworkin does not think that a closer partnership with Egypt will such concerns completely out of the table. 

“Instead the position will continue to be that European leaders and officials keep human rights as an issue to be discussed but don’t put it at the centre of relations or make the overall relationship with Egypt contingent on meaningful reform,” he said.