Wednesday

6th Dec 2023

UK better off in EU for now, says eurosceptic think tank

  • Canary Wharf, London: Concern about its prized financial sector is one of the reasons for London's ambivalence about the EU (Photo: harshilshah100)

The UK would be better off staying in the EU, the country's foremost eurosceptic think tank says, amid a growing debate among Conservatives on the merits of a British exit from the European Union.

"From purely a trade perspective, EU membership remains the best option for the UK," Open Europe argues in a report published Monday (11 June).

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Become an expert on Europe

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

"All the alternatives come with major drawbacks and would all … require negotiation with and the agreement of the other member states, which would come with unpredictable political and economic risks," it continues.

The report examines the idea - gaining traction among some eurosceptic Conservatives - that Britain could leave the EU but maintain its current trade relations, with the EU accounting for 48 percent of total UK goods and services exports.

But it rejects the four touted alternatives. The "Norway model," for example, would free the UK from expensive fishing and farm rules while giving the country access to the single market. However, the UK would have no say over the EU laws it would be obliged to implement.

Meanwhile, the "full-break" - a simple exit without any kind of brokered deal - would see British exporters "suddenly faced with new tariffs."

But the think tank, which is influential within Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservative Party, says "growing public hostility" means it should renegotiate it terms of membership.

"The common agricultural and fisheries policies, EU-wide regional funding, the impact of EU social and employment regulation on the UK economy and contributions to the EU’s budget" are cited as the downsides of membership.

And it notes that its current conclusion that EU membership is beneficial for trade reasons could change if the Union were to become more protectionist in the future.

The current eurozone crisis, likely to prompt treaty change, would be a useful opportunity for the UK to get its preferred "pick and mix" membership.

"As the Eurozone is likely to need a new set of EU Treaty arrangements to move towards further integration, which the UK must approve, Britain will have a unique opportunity to stake out its own model for EU membership."

The report comes as Cameron's Conservative party has been divided between hardliners who want Britain to leave the EU and moderates who want its membership renegotiated.

It also comes amid a wider academic discussion in Britain about its EU future. A recent paper by David Rennie, former Brussels correspondent for The Economist and now the magazine's political editor, suggests London's continued EU membership can no longer be taken for granted.

"It would be a mistake to assume, complacently, that sullen British acceptance of the status quo will continue indefinitely," writes Rennie.

"To a striking and novel degree, when senior officials hold policy seminars or forward-looking strategy debates, it is no longer seen as outlandish or naive to suggest that, if eurozone integration leads to grave clashes with British domestic priorities, Britain might end up better off out. As an idea, the possibility of British withdrawal is becoming normalised."

Meanwhile at the EU level, British recalcitrance may coincide with the sense of urgency within parts of the eurozone that further integration is the only way to solve the single currency crisis.

"We should not stay still because one or other [member state] does not yet want to join in," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel last week making the case for a two-speed Europe when it comes to giving Brussels more powers.

Merkel speaks out for two-speed Europe

German Chancellor Merkel has said she will push ahead with plans for a political union, including more powers to Brussels and a two-speed Europe if necessary.

EU commissioner picks fight with London after UK veto

EU economy chief Olli Rehn has warned the City of London will not escape European regulation of the financial sector and insisted there is firm legal ground for the use of the EU institutions to police a new 'fiscal compact.'

Cameron defends EU veto amid accusations of isolating Britain

In a stormy parliamentary debate highlighting the fall-out with his coalition partner, UK Prime Minister David Cameron struggled to defend his EU veto arguing he had safeguarded financial services from extra regulation, despite Brussels claiming the contrary.

UK promises thorough analysis of EU by 2014

The UK government has announced it will undertake a wide-ranging study of the EU so that any statements it makes about 'meddlesome' Brussels may be in future be backed up by hard evidence.

Opinion

Eurozone approaching moment of truth

There may be decisions the euro area has to take to protect its financial stability, which could be detrimental to the rest of the EU if imposed on them, writes George Osborne.

Opinion

Can Green Deal survive the 2024 European election?

Six months ahead of the EU elections, knocking an 'elitist' climate agenda is looking like a vote-winner to some. Saving the Green Deal and the EU's climate ambitions starts with listening to Europeans who are struggling to make ends meet.

Latest News

  1. EU nears deal to fingerprint six year-old asylum seekers
  2. Orbán's Ukraine-veto threat escalates ahead of EU summit
  3. Can Green Deal survive the 2024 European election?
  4. Protecting workers' rights throughout the AI revolution
  5. Russia, the West, and the geopolitical 'touch-move rule'
  6. Afghanistan is a 'forever emergency,' says UN head
  7. EU public procurement reform 'ineffective', find auditors
  8. COP28 warned over-relying on carbon capture costs €27 trillion

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of MinistersArtist Jessie Kleemann at Nordic pavilion during UN climate summit COP28
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersCOP28: Gathering Nordic and global experts to put food and health on the agenda
  3. Friedrich Naumann FoundationPoems of Liberty – Call for Submission “Human Rights in Inhume War”: 250€ honorary fee for selected poems
  4. World BankWorld Bank report: How to create a future where the rewards of technology benefit all levels of society?
  5. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsThis autumn Europalia arts festival is all about GEORGIA!
  6. UNOPSFostering health system resilience in fragile and conflict-affected countries

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. European Citizen's InitiativeThe European Commission launches the ‘ImagineEU’ competition for secondary school students in the EU.
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersThe Nordic Region is stepping up its efforts to reduce food waste
  3. UNOPSUNOPS begins works under EU-funded project to repair schools in Ukraine
  4. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsGeorgia effectively prevents sanctions evasion against Russia – confirm EU, UK, USA
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersGlobal interest in the new Nordic Nutrition Recommendations – here are the speakers for the launch
  6. Nordic Council of Ministers20 June: Launch of the new Nordic Nutrition Recommendations

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us