EU leaders are gathering in Brussels on Thursday (18 December ) — for the last European Council of the year — in a bid to agree on a plan to fund Ukraine’s budget and defence needs using profits from frozen Russian assets.
But fears the summit will hit a stalemate and run into Friday (19 December) remain high.
“Work is now ongoing to define a solution that can bring every member state on board, or at least that gathers the broadest possible support,” EU Council president António Costa said last week.
EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has outlined a complex package of six legal measures. Four require qualified-majority approval in the EU Council, two need unanimity, and some also need approval from the European Parliament.
But Belgium, home to Euroclear, where most of the assets sit, remains concerned about litigation and possible retaliation from Russia.
Belgium instead favours a joint European loan, which the country's prime minister, Bart De Wever, has previously described as the "simplest and cheapest" solution.
In a letter to Costa, Slovak prime minister Robert Fico stated very clearly that he will not support any EU solution for Ukraine's financial needs that includes covering military expenses for the coming years. He argued that additional military spending prolongs the war and could undermine US peace efforts.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to join EU heads of state, although it remains unclear whether he will travel to Brussels. For security reasons, this is only known a few days before the meeting.
The talks on Ukraine come amid chaotic pressure from the US to achieve a peace deal that would seemingly imply Ukraine giving up its territories in the Donbas — a demand Kyiv has severely rejected, as well as the EU.
“For peace to be just and lasting, borders must not be changed by force and any future agreement must respect Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, and guarantee Ukraine’s long-term security and ability to defend itself,” read the draft summit conclusions, seen by EUobserver, which can still be subject to changes.
Other topics on the agenda of the European Council will be the next long-term EU budget, enlargement, the Middle East, defence and geo-economics.
On the money talks, EU leaders are expected to agree to finalise the next budget (2027–2034) by late 2026, so funding can continue smoothly from January 2028.
“European competitiveness does not exist in a vacuum,” said Costa in its invitation letter to leaders, guiding the discussion into answering “How can the EU best defend itself from external economic and political pressures?” (mainly from the US and China.)
A mini summit with the Western Balkan countries will take place on Wednesday (17 December) ahead of the summit.
On the same day, EU ministers for European affairs will finalise preparation for the summit and discuss the next budget, as well as simplification efforts and enlargement.
Still on Wednesday, EU environment ministers will discuss advancing climate resilience and the circular economy, review the EU bioeconomy strategy, and address a range of environmental issues from mercury and biodiversity to ultra-fast fashion, battery deposits, and carbon-border impacts.
EU foreign affairs ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday (15 December) to discuss Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the Middle East, Syria and China.
Not on the agenda is the recently published US National Security Strategy. The council will be followed by the ministerial meeting with Angola and the EU-Lebanon Association Council.
The bilateral talks with Angola will address political developments, peace and security concerns across Europe and Africa, and explore opportunities for enhanced cooperation in multilateral forums.
During the association council EU and Lebanese officials will review bilateral relations and future prospects during a plenary session based on the EU-Lebanon Association Agreement, followed by a restricted session on regional political issues where the UN mission to Lebanon, UNIFIL, will be discussed.
EU energy ministers will meet on Monday to reach a partial agreement on trans-European energy and transport infrastructure investments, and debate the upcoming European grids package aimed at modernising electricity networks.
The meeting will also feature discussions with Nato secretary general Mark Rutte on protecting critical energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the European Commission is expected to unveil its first-ever housing plan on Tuesday (16 December) — designed to complement or guide national housing policies rather than replace them.
One of the proposals is expected to include a revision of state‑aid rules for services of general economic interest (SGEI) to support affordable and social housing, alongside measures to unlock public and private investment.
On the same day, MEPs in Strasbourg will also have a discussion on the topic.
Italian MEP Irene Tinagli, chair of the housing committee in the parliament, told journalists last Thursday (11 December) that there is a broad coalition in the parliament in support of tackling housing at a European level because “the MEPs that talk to citizens, they realise that there is no ideology, there is a problem, there is a crisis that needs to be addressed and needs public policy.”
MEPs will also hold the Sakharov Prize award ceremony on Tuesday at noon. The two journalists who will be awarded it this year, Andrzej Poczobut from Belarus and Mzia Amaglobeli from Georgia, are both imprisoned in their home countries.
The parliament is also set to approve a ban of Russian gas imports with a vote on Wednesday and have a debate on the ‘My Voice, My Choice’ initiative to ensure women can access safe and legal abortions across the EU.
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Hannah Kriwak is a junior reporter from Austria at EUobserver, covering European politics.
Hannah Kriwak is a junior reporter from Austria at EUobserver, covering European politics.