Sunday

24th Sep 2023

UK to benefit from Bulgarian and Romanian migrants, study says

  • Heathrow airport: 1 January did not see Bulgarians and Romanians arrive in large numbers, as predicted (Photo: Curt Smith)

A Swedish economist has said Bulgarians and Romanians who work in other EU states are likely to contribute more to the economy than they take out in benefits.

A study published last week by Joakim Ruist, a research fellow at Sweden’s University of Gothenburg, found that the UK and Ireland stand to benefit the most from the net contributions.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Become an expert on Europe

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

“The UK and Ireland seem to be two countries in which there are good reasons to expect even more positive results,” Ruist told this website on Wednesday (15 January).

He said the ratio to cost in the two countries are likely to be higher, due, in part, to their restrictive welfare systems.

He drew his conclusions by studying the impact of Bulgarians and Romanians in Sweden, where they have been free to work since they joined the EU in 2007.

He found that both nationals contribute 30 percent more to the Swedish economy than they take out.

He then extrapolated the Swedish numbers to other EU countries which did impose transitional labour restrictions.

He says the structure of welfare systems in the UK and Ireland means the two are also likely to see net gains.

But he warned it is too early to measure situation in the UK, which lifted its ban on 1 January.

“You cannot evaluate it [yet] … they only took away the restrictions in the UK two weeks ago,” he said.

Nine member states imposed a full blown seven-year labour restriction.

Fifteen did not impose any curbs, while the others are a mixed bag: Ireland, for instance, imposed restrictions which expired in 2012.

Ruist drew similar conclusions for the 14 non-restrictors.

“Not only is there no evidence of widespread abuse of welfare systems by eastern European migrants - if anything, public finances in the richer EU15 countries appear to have gained from their eastern European post-enlargement immigration,” Ruist said on Vox, a website run by the UK-based Centre for Economic Policy Research.

The issue has generated heated debate in the UK, where newspapers and politicians have stoked fears that Romanians and Bulgarians will arrive in large numbers and take away local jobs.

But so far there is no evidence to underpin the claims.

EU social affairs commissioner Laszlo Andor made a similar point earlier this week.

He told reporters in Brussels that mobile workers from other EU countries pay more in tax and social security into host countries' treasuries than they receive in benefits.

“The more workers from other EU countries a country has, the more solvent its welfare system is,” he said.

Agenda

Spain's EU-language bid and UN summit This WEEK

While the heads of EU institutions are in New York for the UN high level meeting, Spain's EU presidency will try to convince ministers to make Catalan, Basque, and Galician official EU languages.

Latest News

  1. Europe's energy strategy: A tale of competing priorities
  2. Why Greek state workers are protesting new labour law
  3. Gloves off, as Polish ruling party fights for power
  4. Here's the headline of every op-ed imploring something to stop
  5. Report: Tax richest 0.5%, raise €213bn for EU coffers
  6. EU aid for Africa risks violating spending rules, Oxfam says
  7. Activists push €40bn fossil subsidies into Dutch-election spotlight
  8. Europe must Trump-proof its Ukraine arms supplies

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. International Medical Devices Regulators Forum (IMDRF)Join regulators, industry & healthcare experts at the 24th IMDRF session, September 25-26, Berlin. Register by 20 Sept to join in person or online.
  2. UNOPSUNOPS begins works under EU-funded project to repair schools in Ukraine
  3. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsGeorgia effectively prevents sanctions evasion against Russia – confirm EU, UK, USA
  4. International Medical Devices Regulators Forum (IMDRF)Join regulators & industry experts at the 24th IMDRF session- Berlin September 25-26. Register early for discounted hotel rates
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersGlobal interest in the new Nordic Nutrition Recommendations – here are the speakers for the launch
  6. Nordic Council of Ministers20 June: Launch of the new Nordic Nutrition Recommendations

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us