Thursday

23rd Mar 2023

Brexit would hit Benelux and Ireland hard, says study

  • Trade barriers between the UK and the EU could cost Dutch people up to €1,000 per person (Photo: David Holt)

If the United Kingdom votes to leave the European Union, the economies that face the biggest hit in the EU would be Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, a Dutch study said on Thursday (9 June).

“There is a relatively large amount of trade between these countries and the UK, and they will be hit the hardest by the trade restrictions that would follow a Brexit,” said a report by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, an advisory institute of the ministry for economic affairs.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Become an expert on Europe

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

  • Former PM's Blair and Major believe a Brexit could “tear apart the United Kingdom”. (Photo: sammydavisdog)

It calculated that, depending on the post-Brexit scenario, GDP in the Netherlands could fall between 0.9 percent to 2 percent.

Without a new free trade agreement to replace the current borderless trade between the UK and the Netherlands, the direct impact of a Brexit could cost around €575 per person in the Netherlands.

Under the assumption that trade leads to innovation and productivity, the per capita loss would be €1,000, the report said.

For the UK, the hit would be even harder without a new trade deal.

“The UK losses in 2030 ... would be around 4 percent of GDP. And, if we assume that innovation would lag behind due to reduced trade levels, these losses may even increase to nearly 9 percent of GDP.

“In that case, the UK losses would be similar to those experienced during the 2008–2009 crisis.”

The losses estimated by the Dutch study are significantly higher than Britain citizens themselves expect to suffer.

A survey published on Wednesday suggested undecided voters believed leaving the EU would leave them £71 (€90) worse off a year.

The reports were published two weeks before British citizens go to the polls, on 23 June.

It came as the Leave campaign criticised the UK government's decision to extend the deadline for registering to vote by 48 hours.

On Tuesday evening, the website where voters needed to register before being able to take part in the referendum crashed. On Wednesday, the government announced it would allow registrations until midnight on Thursday.

“They’ve just told the House of Commons that their website crashed last night because of the high demand, but we know that the government and their allies are trying to register as many likely Remain voters as possible,” Vote Leave campaigner Matthew Elliott said.

Meanwhile, the campaign continues.

Two former prime ministers are expected to hold a speech in Northern Ireland on Thursday, arguing for the UK to remain in the EU.

John Major, of the Conservative party, and his former rival Tony Blair, of Labour, will share a podium to say that leaving the EU could “tear apart the United Kingdom”.

“Not just a shrunken economy, not just a diminished United Kingdom on the world stage, but a smaller country in a very real and literal sense,” Major will say, according to a draft of the speech which was leaked to the British press.

“The most successful union in world history would be broken apart for good.”

There are fears that Scotland, generally more pro-EU than the rest of the UK, would want to have a second independence referendum if the UK leaves the EU without the Scots' consent.

And in Northern Ireland, the fragile peace between nationalists and unionists could come under strain if a land border with the Irish republic were to return, the prime ministers will say.

Cameron warns of Brexit 'madness'

In an TV debate three weeks before the EU membership referendum, the British prime minister defended his promise to curb migration and warned that leaving the EU would be "economic self-harm".

No EU plan for Brexit, Eurogroup chief says

Jeroen Dijsselbloem says EU leaders have no plan in case British voters choose to leave the union and says the pro-EU camp should address emotional as well as rational interests.

Cameron in a pickle over Scotland promises

British PM David Cameron is under fire from his own party and from the Labour opposition for having promised more powers to Scotland but being vague on similar devolution plans for England.

Opinion

Turkey's election — the Erdoğan vs Kılıçdaroğlu showdown

Turkey goes to the polls in May for both a new parliament and new president, after incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan decided against a post-earthquake postponement. The parliamentary outcome is easy to predict — the presidential one less so.

Latest News

  1. How German business interests have shaped EU climate agenda
  2. The EU-Turkey migration deal is dead on arrival at this summit
  3. Sweden worried by EU visa-free deal with Venezuela
  4. Spain denies any responsibility in Melilla migrant deaths
  5. How much can we trust Russian opinion polls on the war?
  6. Banning PFAS 'forever chemicals' may take forever in Brussels
  7. EU Parliament joins court case against Hungary's anti-LGBTI law
  8. Three French MEPs to stay on election-observation blacklist

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic and Baltic ways to prevent gender-based violence
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: Economic gender equality now! Nordic ways to close the pension gap
  3. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: Pushing back the push-back - Nordic solutions to online gender-based violence
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: The Nordics are ready to push for gender equality
  5. Promote UkraineInvitation to the National Demonstration in solidarity with Ukraine on 25.02.2023
  6. Azerbaijan Embassy9th Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council Ministerial Meeting and 1st Green Energy Advisory Council Ministerial Meeting

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us