Friday

2nd Jun 2023

European right hopes Macron will save France

  • Emmanuel Macron was received by Angela Merkel on 16 March (Photo: Diplomacy)

Not long ago, Francois Fillon was considered the most likely winner of the French presidential election in May.

But after he was charged for embezzlement over suspicions of fake parliamentary jobs for his wife and children, even his European allies seem to have lost hope.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Become an expert on Europe

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

  • "The damage is done," an EPP official said about the impact on voters of the charges against Fillon for embezzlement (Photo: Reuters/Pascal Rossignol)

Meanwhile, the fear of seeing far-right candidate Marine Le Pen taking power is growing.

"People are worried, they are wondering what is going on in France," Joseph Daul, president of the European People's Party (EPP), told EUobserver on the margins of the EPP congress in Malta this week.

"And it goes further than that. There are already committees, at the highest level, working on the hypothesis that France leaves the euro and the EU," he said.

He declined to specify whether these working groups were in EU capitals or in the EU institutions.

Officials in Brussels have warned about the consequences for France and the EU if Le Pen were to be elected, but have said so far that that they do not want to envisage a Le Pen scenario.

The National Front (FN) leader has said that she wants to "do away with the EU," and has promised to organise a referendum on the country's EU membership.

Her possible election "has been a risk for some time," a high level EU source said recently, pointing to the "explosion" of the two main parties, the Socialist Party (PS) of outgoing president Francois Hollande and Fillon's Republicans.

In the most recent poll published on Wednesday (29 March), Socialist Party (PS) candidate Benoit Hamon was credited with only 10 percent of voting intentions and Fillon with 18 percent. Both were far behind Le Pen (with 24 percent) and independent candidate Emmanuel Macron (with 25.5 percent).

'Nothing is predictable'

Most polls put Le Pen ahead in the first round on 23 April. And while Macron is leading in polls for the second round on 7 May, a high number of undecided voters and uncertainties over the turnout make the polls unreliable.

"Nothing is predictable," another top EPP official said in Malta, referring to the risk of seeing some Fillon supporters voting for Le Pen in the second round if their candidate does not qualify.

Fillon, who is campaigning, did not attend the EPP congress and addressed delegates through a very short video message.

"I think it would have done him some good to be with heads of state and governments, because he would have had the EPP support," Daul said.

The EPP counts the heads of the three EU institutions among its members, as well as seven heads of EU states and governments.

Privately, however, delegates suggested that Fillon's chances were over, and some even said he should have withdrawn from the race.

"The damage is done," one party official noted, referring to the impact the charges against the conservative candidate had on voters.

Asked whether Fillon was still a good candidate for his party, the official did not reply verbally but made a hand gesture indicating that he did not believe so.

Hopes that Fillon doesn't win

"We don't see how Fillon can win and some come to hoping he doesn't win," said Alain Lamassoure, who, until last October, was the leader of the French EPP delegation in the European Parliament.

Fillon's friendly position towards Russia and attacks against France's judiciary have shocked some in the EPP.

During its congress, the EPP adopted a resolution against corruption and announced it will soon adopt a code of ethics.

A party source told EUobserver that, although at first the resolution was aimed towards some EPP parties outside the EU, it was considered more urgent due to Fillon's case and that the code of ethics was a direct reaction to it.

With the risk of seeing Le Pen leading the EU's second largest country, many EPP politicians "hope that Macron will win," Lamassoure said, saying publicly what other delegates had expressed privately.

He explained that Macron, who was Hollande's former economy minister, is acceptable to the EPP because "he is European, young, honest and has an economic programme based on social market economy".

"The interest of France's partners is that France is really governed," he said.

Among France's partners is Germany, where chancellor Angela Merkel, an EPP leader, "is looking at what is going on," Daul said. "She is worried because it is not neutral for the Franco-German engine."

Merkel, who received Fillon in Berlin in January, also met with Macron, as well as with Hamon earlier this month.

"I think that Fillon suited Merkel well," the EPP president said, using the past tense to suggest that Merkel, too, would make the best of having Macron in the Elysee palace.

A French translation of this article may be found here.

A German translation of this article may be found here.

French candidates avoid EU debate

In their first TV debate, the main candidates for the April election only briefly discussed the country's EU policies, with far-right Le Pen and centrist Macron taking aim at each other.

Macron meets Merkel, says France must reform

The independent liberal candidate to the presidential election said in Berlin that France must reform itself if it wants to remain close to Germany and play a role in Europe.

Investigation

Sex and lies: Russia's EU news

France and Germany have been targeted for years with fake news and lies designed to incite sexual revulsion toward migrants and the politicians who gave them shelter.

Column

What a Spanish novelist can teach us about communality

In a world where cultural clashes and sectarianism seems to be on the increase, Spanish novelist Javier Cercas (b.1962) takes the opposite approach. He cherishes both life in the big city and in the countryside.

Opinion

Poland and Hungary's ugly divorce over Ukraine

What started in 2015 as a 'friends-with-benefits' relationship between Viktor Orbán and Jarosław Kaczyński, for Hungary and Poland, is ending in disgust and enmity — which will not be overcome until both leaders leave.

Latest News

  1. EU data protection chief launches Frontex investigation
  2. Madrid steps up bid to host EU anti-money laundering hub
  3. How EU leaders should deal with Chinese government repression
  4. MEPs pile on pressure for EU to delay Hungary's presidency
  5. IEA: World 'comfortably' on track for renewables target
  6. Europe's TV union wooing Lavrov for splashy interview
  7. ECB: eurozone home prices could see 'disorderly' fall
  8. Adapting to Southern Europe's 'new normal' — from droughts to floods

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. International Sustainable Finance CentreJoin CEE Sustainable Finance Summit, 15 – 19 May 2023, high-level event for finance & business
  2. ICLEISeven actionable measures to make food procurement in Europe more sustainable
  3. World BankWorld Bank Report Highlights Role of Human Development for a Successful Green Transition in Europe
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic summit to step up the fight against food loss and waste
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersThink-tank: Strengthen co-operation around tech giants’ influence in the Nordics
  6. EFBWWEFBWW calls for the EC to stop exploitation in subcontracting chains

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. InformaConnecting Expert Industry-Leaders, Top Suppliers, and Inquiring Buyers all in one space - visit Battery Show Europe.
  2. EFBWWEFBWW and FIEC do not agree to any exemptions to mandatory prior notifications in construction
  3. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic and Baltic ways to prevent gender-based violence
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: Economic gender equality now! Nordic ways to close the pension gap
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: Pushing back the push-back - Nordic solutions to online gender-based violence
  6. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: The Nordics are ready to push for gender equality

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us