Germany needs another Helmut Kohl - instead, it's getting Friedrich Merz

Helmut Kohl became the chancellor of Germany at a time of profound crisis for the Western world.

In the early 1980s, the Soviet Union was seeking to extend its superpower status in Afghanistan and deploying modernised SS-20 missiles in eastern Europe that were capable of striking Nato. 

Germany today faces a similar set of existential geopolitical challenges. Vladimir Putin has launched the first-interstate war in Europe since the Second World War and made frequent threats of nuclear conflict with the West.

The return of Russian imperialism on a large-scale in 2022 prompted a radical re-orientation of German foreign policy.

Olaf Scholz acknowledged the demise of the peace dividend and the need for Germany to step up on defence and security. But after three years of war, the Zeitenwende [Change of an Era] that the German chancellor proclaimed has failed fundamentally to materialise. 

Scholz has presided over a deterioration in Germany’s relations with its neighbours and key EU partners — France and Poland.

A summit of Western leaders on Ukraine took place in Berlin last October without the inclusion of the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk. The German government also delayed a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas trans-shipments and a proposal to make EU companies responsible for sanctions violations.

In contrast, Kohl took an approach that adapted Germany effectively to the difficult geopolitical landscape it confronted. He understood that a credible deterrence towards Soviet aggression was essential, despite the painful memory of Hitler’s assault on Russia in 1941. For Kohl, this could not be possible without Germany’s transformation into a dependable actor in Europe.

When he entered the German chancellery in 1982, Kohl faced down the threat of the Soviet Union’s modernised nuclear capabilities. He allowed the deployment of the American Pershing II missiles on West German territory.

While many were critical of Kohl’s decision at the time, it played a crucial role in alleviating the tensions of the Cold War. Mikhail Gorbachev later admitted that Nato's steadfastness during the Euromissile crisis contributed significantly to his accommodation of the West under ‘new thinking’. 

In parallel, Kohl was determined to prevent Germany from becoming isolated amid the Cold War divisions of Europe. His predecessor, Konrad Adenauer, initiated the Franco-German reconciliation process with Charles de Gaulle.

Yet, France was still wary of a resurgence in German power. Kohl made a powerful repudiation of French concerns in striking a strong alliance with Francois Mitterrand. Their partnership formed the basis of the Maastricht Treaty (1992) - the present-day European Union.

Eastward enlargement

But Kohl also knew that Germany had a historical responsibility to build mutual trust and understanding with Poland.

He pioneered the EU’s eastward enlargement, which he believed was critical to the stability and security of the European continent. The Treaty of Amsterdam (1997) was a significant milestone as it laid out how the former communist states of central and eastern Europe could be admitted into the EU. Today, Poland stands as a thriving democracy and market economy in the heart of Europe.

The statecraft that Kohl exemplified are sorely missing in Europe today.

While Germany has sent substantial military aid to Ukraine, it still lacks a comprehensive strategy towards Russia. Instead, Scholz chose to pursue dialogue with Moscow and maintain a prudent approach — to the detriment of European security. Since 2022, Russia has remained intent on reasserting its influence in Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova. 

Russia’s aggression is even starting to test Germany’s security.

The Kremlin has regularly weaponised irregular migration flows to destabilise the internal affairs of EU member states, such as Poland and Finland. But the suspension of cheap Russian gas imports left Germany particularly vulnerable to the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare. The far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) has exploited Germany’s socio-economic discontent and weakened support for the centre-right and -left.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House and Russia’s revisionism mean that Germany will need to make a strategic reset to safeguard European security.

Friedrich Merz is expected to become Germany’s next chancellor. If the CDU leader prevails in this month’s federal elections, his job should be to recapture the ‘European spirit’ that defined Kohl’s approach to German leadership. 

Kohl has often been dismissed as one of Germany’s less inspiring post-war leaders.

The CDU tried to oust him after a disappointing set of election results just months before the fall of the Berlin Wall. And his retirement was mired in, and marred by, the scandal of secret donations to the CDU under his watch.

But his actions have stood the test of time. Germany reunified and Europe found a way to transcend its differences to create an effective system of peaceful coexistence that many thought impossible. 

The elections on 23 February are the most consequential for Germany since 1990. Kohl’s momentous time in office helped to create a Europe based on freedom and the rule of law. The task ahead of Germany’s leaders today will be to deter Russia from unraveling that European order.