The Flemish Nationalist NVA, a member of the rightwing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), narrowly beat the far-right Flemish Interest in the Belgian national and regional elections taking place on Sunday (June 9), simultaneously with the European elections.
NVA leader and mayor of Antwerp Bart de Wever declared victory around 8pm on Sunday, with around 80 percent of the vote counted.
“More than ever, Flanders has chosen for more autonomy,” de Wever said during his victory speech, alluding to his goal of reforming Belgium’s federal constitution.
Results indicated NVA won around 17 percent of the national vote, beating Flemish Interest, a member of the hard-right Identity and Democracy (ID), into second place with 15 percent.
The far-left PVDA/PTB rose to third place, with just under 10 percent, narrowly ahead of the French-speaking centre-right Reformist Movement (MR).
Belgium’s traditional centre-left powerhouse, the French-speaking Socialists (PS), suffered a disappointing result, dropping to seven percent.
The Dutch-speaking liberals (Open VLD), outgoing prime minister Alexander de Croo’s party, took a beating as well, with an emotional De Croo calling it "an exceptionally tough night".
On Monday (June 10), De Croo submitted his resignation as prime minister to the Belgian King, though he is expected to remain in place as the head of a caretaker government until a new coalition has been formed.
In keeping with the rest of Europe, however, the Greens suffered the biggest losses of the night, with French-speaking Ecolo losing more than half of its seats.
De Wever’s win came as a surprise for commentators, as the rival Flemish Interest had been topping polls for weeks.
“The centre-right voter has been convinced by Bart de Wever,” concluded Laura Jacobs, a political scientist from the University of Antwerp, noting how socio-economic concerns and the sustainability of Belgium’s budget were central to the NVA campaign.
Still, the results show how the Dutch-speaking region of Flanders has been at the forefront of the far-right wave that is sweeping Europe, with the two hard-right parties winning a combined 47 percent of the vote in the elections for the regional Flemish Parliament.
Nonetheless, the two Flemish Nationalist parties’ failure to reach a combined outright majority in the Flemish Parliament will be reassuring to many, after fears over a far-right nationalist coalition dominated the campaign, even sparking speculation over the future of Belgium as a whole.
Instead, NVA will likely attempt to form a Flemish government with the Flemish Christian Democrats (CD&V) and the Flemish Social Democrats of Vooruit, predicted Jacobs.
But at the national level, forging a coalition will remain complicated. “The puzzle is slightly less hard than expected,” Jacobs said, but the strong performance of both the hard-left PVDA/PTB and the far-right means finding a majority will require complicated political arithmetic.
Though an NVA-led centre-right coalition involving French and Dutch christian democrats and liberals seems most likely, such a coalition would only command the slimmest of majorities in parliament.
Moreover, it seems unlikely that De Croo’s Open VLD will be persuaded to govern after suffering such serious losses.
Instead, a severing of ties between French and Dutch-speaking “sister-parties” could be necessary, said Jacobs, noting that Flemish Vooruit might be persuaded to govern without the French PS.
But even in that scenario, de Wever will face difficulties in achieving the fundamental constitutional reforms he campaigned on — promising less financial transfers from Flanders to the rest of Belgium.
“He needs a two-thirds majority in both parliaments to do that,” Jacobs noted, adding that local elections in October could make coalition talks even more complicated.
This article has been updated
Piet Ruig is a Brussels-based journalist who previously worked for the Dutch public broadcaster VPRO.
Piet Ruig is a Brussels-based journalist who previously worked for the Dutch public broadcaster VPRO.