Tuesday

26th Jan 2021

EU-brokered talks on Ukraine: Towards a Minsk 3?

  • Paris talks to give Poroshenko 'arguments' to convince his MPs to adopt Morel's Minsk 3 idea, a French diplomat said (Photo: kremlin.ru)

France and Germany will, in Paris on Friday (2 October), try to broker lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine in what could amount to a new-model "Minsk" deal.

The leaders of the four states will sit down in the French capital at 2.15pm local time.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Become an expert on Europe

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

The mini-summit comes after a lull in shooting in east Ukraine and a recent pull-back of heavy weapons by both sides.

It also comes amid speculation Russia aims to freeze the Ukraine conflict in order to focus on its military intervention in Syria.

The main Paris sticking points are likely to be the upcoming, rogue elections in the Russia-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk "republics", and exchange of prisoners.

The so-called Minsk 2 ceasefire accord, brokered by the EU in February, says Russia must pull out "foreign armed formations" and restore Ukrainian control of the Russia-Ukraine border.

In return, Ukraine is to grant legal "amnesty" for Russia's proxy fighters.

It must also grant "decentralisation", or, a "special status", to the Russia-occupied regions.

Ukraine is organising local elections on 25 October in line with the Minsk 2 "decentralisation" clause.

But the Donetsk and Luhansk "governments" have said they'll hold their own votes, on 18 October and 2 November, in violation of Minsk 2, and in a show of defiance leading to the creation of de facto, Russia-controlled, states on the model of Transniestria in Moldova or South Ossetia in Georgia.

Minsk 3?

For his part, Pierre Morel, a French and former EU diplomat, who's working with the OSCE, the international body monitoring the conflict, has drafted a new plan to settle the issue.

His idea, diplomatic sources say, is to let Donetsk and Luhansk organise their own votes under their own rules and to formalise closer ties with Russia, but to remain, de jure, part of Ukraine.

Kiev and Washington have criticised his proposal.

Ukraine leader Petro Poroshenko has said Morel's plan is no more than the French man's "personal opinion".

Robert G. Berschinski, a senior US diplomat, has said: "Russia should direct the separatists to support - without any conditions - local elections in separatist-controlled areas under Ukrainian law".

But Russia, France, and Germany, have voiced interest.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin told the Tass news agency: "Let's hope dialogue between the unrecognised republics and the Kiev authorities will be positive".

The German foreign ministry said Morel's plan is a "good basis" for the Paris talks.

A French diplomat told the AFP news agency the new Paris accord must give Poroshenko "arguments to persuade [the Ukrainian] parliament to move forward" on a settlement.

Syria factor

EU hopes that Putin is serious on ending Ukraine hostilities come after his airforce started bombing people in Syria.

Russian media has replaced blanket coverage of Ukrainian "fascists" with blanket coverage of Syrian "terrorists".

The operation is a new irritant in EU-Russia relations, with France accusing Moscow of targeting pro-Western, anti-government rebels in Syria instead of Islamic State.

But it’s also a new drain on Putin's military and financial resources.

Meanwhile, Russia’s hybrid force in Ukraine has gotten bogged down in fighting - a development more likely to hold as the US transfers anti-artillery radars to the Ukraine military.

But Pavlo Klimkin, the Ukrainian foreign minister, believes Putin aims to keep his options open.

He told the FT that Russia’s "tactic" is "all about turning up or turning down the temperature  [of the Ukraine conflict], creating instability, and using this in a bid for trade-offs, concessions".

EU sanctions

EU economic sanctions on Russia over Ukraine are to expire in January if member states deem Russia is in compliance with Minsk terms.

Francois Hollande, announcing the Paris event last month, said he’ll personally advocate an end to the EU measures if Russia falls in line.

The sanctions are packaged in separate legal acts, enabling the EU to maintain measures linked to Russia's annexation of Crimea, while lifting the rest.

Nato's chief, Jens Stoltenberg, in an interview with Le Figaro, a French daily, on Thursday, warned that "we will never accept that Ukraine becomes the object of a trade-off" with Russia on cooperation in Syria.

Philip Breedlove, Nato’s top general, this week, also echoed Klimkin's view.

"I think Russia [by its Syria intervention] very much wants to take the world's eyes off what they continue to do in Ukraine", he told a meeting of the German Marshall Fund, a US think tank.

Investigation

Donbass: a region nobody wants?

The Donbass region in east Ukraine is on the road to becoming a de jure Ukrainian province, but a de facto Russian-backed mafia state.

Navalny protests sharpen EU sanctions talks

Street violence in Russia redoubled calls for new sanctions when foreign ministers meet on Monday, after eight EU states earlier proposed asset-freezes and visa-bans.

Analysis

Ten years on from Tahrir: EU's massive missed opportunity

Investing in the Arab world, in a smart way, is also investing in the European Union's future itself. Let's hope that the disasters of the last decade help to shape the neighbourhood policy of the next 10 years.

Opinion

The under-reported power struggle at the top of the OSCE

An internal power struggle has undermined the world's leading international security body since the summer. The OSCE is due to finally get new leaders in December but the unprecedented power vacuum has hit at a crunch time for hotspots worldwide.

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. UNESDAEU Code of Conduct can showcase PPPs delivering healthier more sustainable society
  2. CESIKlaus Heeger and Romain Wolff re-elected Secretary General and President of independent trade unions in Europe (CESI)
  3. Nordic Council of MinistersWomen benefit in the digitalised labour market
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersReport: The prevalence of men who use internet forums characterised by misogyny
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersJoin the Nordic climate debate on 17 November!
  6. UNESDAMaking healthier diets the easy choice

Latest News

  1. Giuseppe Conte: scapegoat or Italy's most cunning politician?
  2. Borrell to meet Lavrov, while Navalny behind bars
  3. Too few central and eastern Europeans at top of EU
  4. Rift widens on 'returns' deadline in EU migration pact
  5. EU adds new 'dark red' zone to travel-restrictions map
  6. Migrants in Bosnia: a disaster foretold on EU doorstep
  7. Navalny protests sharpen EU sanctions talks
  8. Why Russia politics threaten European security

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us