Sunday

31st May 2020

Latest Irish poll shows EU treaty heading for defeat

  • The Irish go to the polls on Thursday 12 June (Photo: EUobserver)

The latest poll in Ireland has revealed a shock swing to the "no" side ahead of next week's vote on the EU's Lisbon treaty.

Carried out for the Irish Times, the TNS/mrbi poll shows that those saying they intend to vote "no" has almost doubled to 35 percent (up 17 points) since their last survey three weeks ago.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Support quality EU news

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

The "yes" side has seen a drop of five points to 30 percent, while those undecided clock in at 28 percent (down 12 points) and seven percent do not intend to vote.

According to a detailed break down by the Irish Times of the 1,000-strong survey, the reason most often cited for voting "no" - 30 percent - is that voters say they do not know what is in the treaty or they do not understand the treaty. Only five percent cited domestic reasons for voting "no."

Those planning to vote "yes" said they would do so to keep Ireland closely involved in the EU. "Yes" supporters also said they wanted to enable the bloc to work more effectively.

The poll revealed a clear socio-economic divide, with a majority of better-off voters intending to vote "yes," and a majority among the working class planning a "no" vote. Meanwhile, older voters tended to be more positive towards the treaty, but there was only a majority of "yes" supporters among the over-50s.

The survey's result comes despite the fact that Ireland's main political parties all support the treaty, and shows there will have to be a large swing before the 12 June vote if it is to result in a "yes."

Ireland is the only one of the 27 member states to hold a referendum on the EU treaty and is facing enormous pressure to secure a "yes" vote, with a rejection likely to scupper the ratification process in the rest of the bloc.

But Dublin has had a hard time trying to sell the treaty, as it has struggled to find a headline reason for voting for the charter that the ordinary voter perceives as directly affecting them.

Reading the treaty

In addition, senior politicians, including prime minister Brian Cowen, have admitted to not reading the entire document, while deputy prime minister Mary Coughlan when questioned gave an inaccurate answer on the future number of EU commissioners foreseen under the treaty.

On top of this, a government book explaining the treaty differs in important ways to a summary of the pact produced by the referendum commission, an independent body that manages referendums in Ireland.

Instead of focussing on the detail, the government has relied on appealing to Irish citizens' generally pro-European stance, with warnings about "disasters" if the country votes "no."

The "no" side has concentrated on single issues, saying the treaty will mean Ireland loses it powers over taxes and abortion while its traditional neutrality will be undermined – all of which the government has categorically denied.

Most of Europe will be focussed on Ireland when voters go to the polls next Thursday. Some, however, are already planning for a possible "no" vote.

According to reports, the Czech Republic, which takes over the EU presidency on 1 January as the EU treaty is supposed to come into force, has prepared two papers how the EU should work in the first half of 2009 - one with the EU treaty in place and one without.

EU Commission aspires for treaty change on health

The European Commission has proposed a €9.4bn stand-alone programme dedicated to health known as EU4Health. The proposal is touted as a first step towards a possible Treaty change when it comes to health.

Exclusive

Lobbyist register to be tightened after Monsanto case

The EU's joint-transparency register lists thousands of lobbyists and what they spend or earn trying to shape EU legislation. New and clearer rules set for launch at the end of the year may lead to more realistic figures.

EU's smallest institution warned on 'threats, blackmail'

An EU institution known as the EESC has been given until the autumn to initiate a series of reforms to protect victims of harassment and whistleblowers, including against threats, blackmail and bribery attempts.

Ombudsman slams EU bank watchdog for 'revolving doors'

The European Banking Authority allowed its executive director to take a job at one of the world's largest financial lobbying groups. The move has been slammed by the European Ombusdman, who called it maladministration.

Commission defends von der Leyen hiring PR firm

The Berlin-based public relations agency Story Machine has been working with European Commission president Von der Leyen since her days as a candidate for the top EU post. Despite offering the same in-house service, the Commission defended the president's choice.

News in Brief

  1. Orban calls EU Commission recovery plan 'absurd'
  2. ABBA's Björn new president of authors' rights federation
  3. Malta and Libya to create anti-migrant 'units'
  4. France reopening bars and parks next week
  5. EU wants more money to hedge against hard Brexit
  6. UK needs to move in negotiations, EU trade official says
  7. Germany seeks EU sanctions on Russia spy-chief
  8. EU extends sanctions against Syrian regime

This is the (finally) approved European Commission

MEPs gave the green light to the entire new European Commission during the plenary session in Strasbourg - but with the abstention of the Greens and a rejection by the leftist group GUE/NGL.

Magazine

Welcome to the EU engine room

Welcome to the EU engine room: the European Parliament (EP's) 22 committees, which churn out hundreds of new laws and non-binding reports each year and which keep an eye on other European institutions.

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. UNESDAHow reducing sugar and calories in soft drinks makes the healthier choice the easy choice
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersGreen energy to power Nordic start after Covid-19
  3. European Sustainable Energy WeekThis year’s EU Sustainable Energy Week (EUSEW) will be held digitally!
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic states are fighting to protect gender equality during corona crisis
  5. UNESDACircularity works, let’s all give it a chance
  6. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic ministers call for post-corona synergies between economic recovery and green transition

Latest News

  1. Spain takes 'giant step' on guaranteed minimum income
  2. Vestager hits back at Lufthansa bailout criticism
  3. EU Commission aspires for treaty change on health
  4. Did Russia get Nato's cosmic-level secrets?
  5. EU Commission: Five-fold aid increase for fossil-fuel regions
  6. France opposed guidelines on EU presidency sponsorships
  7. China's post-Covid 19 'techno-nationalist' industrial policy
  8. EU Commission's €1.85trn recovery package - key points

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us