Thursday

23rd Nov 2017

British migration fears overblown, says report

  • Migrants from Romania and Bulgaria move abroad to work, not to stay unemployed (Photo: afagen)

Fears of massive migration and exploitation of the British welfare system are overblown, says a report published on Friday (5 April) by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

"Survey evidence suggests that the UK is not a strongly favoured location for those interested in migrating. There is little firm evidence to suggest that flows will therefore increase substantially once transitional controls are lifted," says the report.

Thank you for reading EUobserver!

Subscribe now for a 30 day free trial.

  1. €150 per year
  2. or €15 per month
  3. Cancel anytime

EUobserver is an independent, not-for-profit news organization that publishes daily news reports, analysis, and investigations from Brussels and the EU member states. We are an indispensable news source for anyone who wants to know what is going on in the EU.

We are mainly funded by advertising and subscription revenues. As advertising revenues are falling fast, we depend on subscription revenues to support our journalism.

For group, corporate or student subscriptions, please contact us. See also our full Terms of Use.

If you already have an account click here to login.

The study was commissioned by the UK government amid heated tabloid debate in Britain about whether the lifting of labour restrictions at the end of this year will lead to many Romanians and Bulgarians travelling to the UK,

Based on an analysis of surveys, statistics and academic papers in Britain, Bulgaria and Romania, the report lists Spain and Italy as the preferred destinations for migrants from the two Balkan countries.

Numbers in Britain, according to the Labour Force Survey, are "relatively low." Some 26,000 Bulgarians and 80,000 Romanians are currently living in Britain.

The report stresses that the main motivation for people from Romania and Bulgaria to move abroad is to work, not to claim welfare benefits.

As elsewhere in the EU, Romanians and Bulgarians in Britain are "overwhelmingly young, aged under 35", without children and work in jobs often below their academic or professional qualifications, in hotels, restaurants, cleaning services and construction.

"In relation to health services, future migration from Bulgaria and Romania is unlikely to have a significant impact. Economic migrants, in particular, are generally young and healthy and, as such, do not make major demands on health services," the report reads, in reference to government plans to limit the access of migrants to British health care.

"One consideration is whether much migration from Bulgaria and Romania to the UK has already happened, but is confined to ... 'self employment' and employment in the grey economy. It is possible that once restrictions are lifted, actual numbers of [Romanian and Bulgarian] citizens working in the UK may not increase substantially."

The report also lists four previous 'waves' of migration from these two countries to other EU states: the break-up of the Eastern Block in 1989 and subsequent migration between 1990-1995, the collapse of the Bulgarian economy in 1996, lifting visa restrictions for Bulgaria and Romania in 2001 and their EU membership in 2007.

None of these events resulted in massive migration to the UK.

As for Roma migration, the report notes that it is "mostly temporary and circular, with two thirds of Roma returning to Bulgaria within less than six months."

The report also warns against any numerical estimates of people arriving from these two countries once labour market restrictions are lifted next year.

The authors say there is a lack of accurate data on current migration for both permanent residents and temporary workers. The report cites the "unpredictability of migration" given changing political and economic factors in Romania and Bulgaria, as well as Europe in general.

"Consequently, any numerical estimates of potential migration to the UK are likely to be inaccurate and misleading," they conclude. Anti-migration groups have predicted about 50,000 new arrivals once restrictions are lifted, while the Communities Secretary estimated 13,000.

Dutch call for 'code orange' on EU labour migration

The Dutch social affairs minister has called on the EU to focus on the "negative consequences," of labour migration from Romania and Bulgaria, despite studies showing the fear is overblown.

Mladic found guilty for Bosnia genocide and war crimes

The former Bosnian Serb warlord was sentenced to life in prison for committing genocide and war crimes in Srebrenica and Sarajevo. Mladic is still regarded as a 'hero' among some Bosnian Serbs, in a country undergoing resurgent nationalism.

MEPs point finger at Malta

The European Parliament debated shady deals and rule of law in Malta after the murder of Daphne Caruana Galizia, while the Commission wanted to avoid a "political fight".

MEP switches vote on 'private expenses' transparency

A small group of MEPs are looking into how members of the European Parliament spend the monthly €4,300 'private expenses' funded by taxpayer money. Last month, MEPs voted on transparency amendments on the funds.

News in Brief

  1. December euro summit still on, Tusk confirms
  2. EU calls for end to Kenya election crisis
  3. Report: Israeli PM invited to meet EU ministers
  4. French banks close Le Pen accounts
  5. Commission relaxes rules on labelling free range eggs
  6. Commission issues €34m fine over car equipment cartel
  7. Estonian presidency 'delighted' with emissions trading vote
  8. Mladic found guilty of genocide and war crimes

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Idealist Quarterly"Dear Politics, Time to Meet Creativity!" Afterwork Discussion & Networking
  2. Mission of China to the EUAmbassador Zhang Ming Received by Tusk; Bright Future for EU-China Relations
  3. EU2017EEEstonia, With the ECHAlliance, Introduces the Digital Health Society Declaration
  4. ILGA EuropeFreedom of Movement For All Families? Same Sex Couple Ask EU Court for Recognition
  5. European Jewish CongressEJC to French President Macron: We Oppose All Contact With Far-Right & Far-Left
  6. EPSUWith EU Pillar of Social Rights in Place, Time Is Ticking for Commission to Deliver
  7. ILGA EuropeBan on LGBTI Events in Ankara Must Be Overturned
  8. Bio-Based IndustriesBio-Based Industries: European Growth is in Our Nature!
  9. Dialogue PlatformErdogan's Most Vulnerable Victims: Women and Children
  10. UNICEFEuropean Parliament Marks World Children's Day by Launching Dialogue With Children
  11. European Jewish CongressAntisemitism in Europe Today: Is It Still a Threat to Free and Open Society?
  12. Counter BalanceNew Report: Juncker Plan Backs Billions in Fossil Fuels and Carbon-Heavy Infrastructure

Latest News

  1. Mali blames West for chaos in Libya
  2. Orban stokes up his voters with anti-Soros 'consultation'
  3. Commission warns Italy over high debt level
  4. Mladic found guilty for Bosnia genocide and war crimes
  5. Uber may face fines in EU for keeping data breach secret
  6. EU counter-propaganda 'harms' relations, Russia says
  7. The EU's half-hearted Ostpolitik
  8. Glyphosate: 1.3 million EU citizens call for ban