Wednesday

31st May 2023

Column

'Balancing' China starts in WalMart and Amazon, not Pacific

Listen to article

America's defence against China is taking shape. It starts with the capacity to peek into China - with massive investment in different forms of intelligence gathering – from spies to spy satellites.

The second line of defence runs right up to China's shores with frequent patrols of warships, sophisticated maritime patrol aircraft, and drones. The Marine Corps and army are preparing to repel aggression by scattering combat units, artillery, and missiles across the island chain that consists of Japan and Taiwan.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Become an expert on Europe

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

  • It is container ships that allow China to alter the balance of power, not so much the warships

The US wants to remain close to China, a signal of both resolve and readiness.

The real punch comes from behind.

While the first two lines of defence remain vulnerable, the US seeks to exploit the full depth of the Pacific Ocean. Its vision of mosaic warfare and distributed operations disperses troops and aircraft across multiple bases, in the usual places, like Guam and Australia, but also increasingly in small islands like Micronesia, Palau, Manus Islands, and Tinian islands.

Big navy ships become nodes of combat clouds, networks of smaller manned and unmanned platforms. The idea is to make US forces less vulnerable to Chinese missiles, to retain dominance in the Pacific, and hence the capacity to fight in China's vicinity.

It looks like a perfect plan, such leading from behind. US troops are less exposed in the first line of defence and resilient to strike back from a distance.

Besides frequent patrols of US aircraft and warships, the relatively small footprint in China's immediate environment is less intimidating and helpful to avoid conflict.

This new military reassurance also allows countries to pursue commercial relations with China. That on its turn would help prevent the return of a Cold War-like situation of exclusive zones of influence.

Problems

Still, the new offshore defence strategy is problematic. While it appears to restore the balance of power in the short term, it could give way to greater imbalances in the long run. It fails to address the main cause of the power shift: economics.

It is container ships that allow China to alter the balance of power, not so much the warships, and those container ships will continue to sail right trough. It is the voracious appetite of US consumers that supports China's industrialisation and generates the trade revenues that Beijing uses to buy influence elsewhere.

It's not only the cargo ships that sneak through these lines of defence. Business class travellers do so too. US investments in China continue to peek and more technology is sold to China. Indeed, China does not need to steal knowhow from the United States; it can just buy it or attract it.

Those who expected the trade war, coronavirus or Xi Jinping's robust politics to be a watershed, are mistaken. Also in 2020, investment relations continued to strengthen and exports rebounded, being it that the more containers are now channelled via Vietnam to escape some of the tariffs.

Washington insists that business can continue. "It's too big of an economy," said the US trade secretary, "we want access to their economy."

But business cannot be disconnected from power politics. It is business that props up political and military influence. As long as China exploits globalisation more skilfully than others, the balance of power will continue to shift and the security dilemma will only become more pressing in the long run. Balancing China starts not in the Pacific Ocean but in WalMart and Amazon.

This is indeed like cursing in the free-trade church. Pro-traders might also insist that we could just try to nudge investment towards other countries, like India.

The US should expect trade to shift to India and other Asian countries, when it continues to build most of the factories in China. In 2020, again, US direct investment in China surged by $10bn [€8.6bn]; it even decreased in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.

No wonder that, despite the diplomatic and military initiatives, most countries in the region see China as the new leader. Perhaps it is just easier to adjust military strategy towards China than to tackle the addiction of consumers and companies to China.

There could be a smart way out of this dilemma. By genuinely trying to empower other Asian countries and supporting helping democracies such as India back on track.

It would also entail bringing back production in a sustainable and innovative way to the United States, investing in America's internal resilience. The best way to balance China is to grow together and helping other countries to catch up.

Author bio

Jonathan Holslag teaches international politics at the Free University Brussels and guest lectures at the NATO Defense College. His latest book is World Politics since 1989 (Polity, September 2021).

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author's, not those of EUobserver.

EU pitches infrastructure investment plan to rival China

Ursula von der Leyen launched a global investment operation directed at infrastructure and transport. Its aim is to compete with the China's Belt and Road. "We want to create links and not dependencies," she said.

Far left and right MEPs less critical of China and Russia

MEPs have shown consistent support for action against authoritarian regimes other than Russia or China, but unanimity requirements in the votes of the European Council are considered a clear impediment for a more effective EU foreign policy.

EU and US join up against China on Taiwan

The EU and its leading powers voiced strident criticism of China at a G7 meeting in London on Wednesday, even as Hungary, once again, tried to gag Europe in Brussels.

This 'Black Friday' is a turning point in corporate accountability

Much supply-chain abuse remains hidden from plain sight – not only to consumers but to the companies themselves, who have built increasingly longer, more complicated, and more opaque supply chains, which have become harder to monitor, control and account for.

The EU needs to foster tech — not just regulate it

The EU's ambition to be a digital superpower stands in stark contrast to the US — but the bigger problem is that it remains far better at regulation than innovation, despite decades of hand-wringing over Europe's technology gap.

EU export credits insure decades of fossil-fuel in Mozambique

European governments are phasing out fossil fuels at home, but continuing their financial support for fossil mega-projects abroad. This is despite the EU agreeing last year to decarbonise export credits — insurance on risky non-EU projects provided with public money.

Latest News

  1. Germany unsure if Orbán fit to be 'EU president'
  2. EU Parliament chief given report on MEP abuse 30 weeks before sanction
  3. EU clashes over protection of workers exposed to asbestos
  4. EU to blacklist nine Russians over jailing of dissident
  5. Russia-Ukraine relations the Year After the war
  6. Why creating a new legal class of 'climate refugees' is a bad idea
  7. Equatorial Guinea: a 'tough nut' for the EU
  8. New EU ethics body and Moldova conference This WEEK

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. International Sustainable Finance CentreJoin CEE Sustainable Finance Summit, 15 – 19 May 2023, high-level event for finance & business
  2. ICLEISeven actionable measures to make food procurement in Europe more sustainable
  3. World BankWorld Bank Report Highlights Role of Human Development for a Successful Green Transition in Europe
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic summit to step up the fight against food loss and waste
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersThink-tank: Strengthen co-operation around tech giants’ influence in the Nordics
  6. EFBWWEFBWW calls for the EC to stop exploitation in subcontracting chains

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. InformaConnecting Expert Industry-Leaders, Top Suppliers, and Inquiring Buyers all in one space - visit Battery Show Europe.
  2. EFBWWEFBWW and FIEC do not agree to any exemptions to mandatory prior notifications in construction
  3. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic and Baltic ways to prevent gender-based violence
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: Economic gender equality now! Nordic ways to close the pension gap
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: Pushing back the push-back - Nordic solutions to online gender-based violence
  6. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: The Nordics are ready to push for gender equality

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us