For almost two years, opinion polls have given a lead to the Austrian far-right Freedom Party for the 29 September national elections.
With only weeks left until election day, the mainstream parties are in the meantime sounding the alarm to convince voters of the threats a potential far-right chancellorship and government poses to the country’s democracy, trying to dissuade them from voting for the far-right.
However, while all eyes are on the far-right, the centre-right Austrian People's Party (ÖVP)’s key role in this election is often neglected.
Plummeting in the polls after their ‘wunderkind’, Sebastian Kurz, left politics in 2021, the People’s Party failed to regain the level of popularity they enjoyed during the Kurz years.
And yet, while unlikely to come in first in this autumn’s national elections, they will hold the most powerful position in Austria in the aftermath of the election: forming a coalition without them is practically impossible. As such, whether a far-right coalition government emerge largely depends on them.
Yet, the ÖVP has demonstrated its negligence of the danger the far-right poses to democracy before.
Setting aside the 1983-1987 minority coalition between the Social Democrats and the Freedom Party before its ‘Haiderisation’, the ÖVP has been the main partner to the far-right, elevating it to power several times over the last two and a half decades.
In 2000, the ÖVP, although coming in third place in the 1999 elections, set a precedent by forming a coalition with the second-placed far right which led to short-lived sanctions by the EU-14.
In 2017, a strengthened and ‘new’ ÖVP under Kurz led the party into a renewed coalition with the far-right party — this time though with no international repercussions as far-right politics has become mainstreamed.
After undermining liberal democracy, and several national scandals posing threats to the country’s rule of law and security, such as the raid of the Austrian intelligence services, ordered by back-then FPÖ interior minister Herbert Kickl, the ÖVP-FPÖ government gained international notoriety following the revelations of the ‘Ibiza scandal’ in 2019, ultimately breaking apart the coalition. Early elections resulted in an unprecedented ÖVP-Greens coalition that would hold for the next five years.
This autumn, the possibility of the ÖVP once again aiding the far-right to power looms large.
While a far-right victory would allow the FPÖ to hold coalition talks and appoint the chancellor, their only viable option for a needed coalition partner remains the ÖVP, the lone party that has not categorically ruled out a coalition with the FPÖ, only a cabinet including hardliner and FPÖ-leader Kickl.
However, the ÖVP’s pledges should be taken with a grain of salt: first, reminiscent of the year 2000, when the ÖVP entered a governing coalition with the FPÖ under the premise that Haider would be left out, the exclusion of Kickl does not mean the far-right would be any more ‘moderate’ or uninfluenced by him.
Secondly, not only does the ÖVP already govern with the FPÖ on the regional level in several states, but they do so with people considered as extreme as Kickl, such as with Udo Landbauer in Lower Austria.
The pretext of not wanting to govern with an FPÖ that includes Herbert Kickl is hypocritical at best and naive at worst
Thus, the pretext of not wanting to govern with an FPÖ that includes Kickl is hypocritical at best and naive at worst as it neglects the fact that the entire party represents the same anti-liberal democratic values as the party’s leader does.
A coalition excluding the far-right is possible but challenging.
It would require the ÖVP to join forces with the SPÖ and another party, likely the liberal NEOS, to secure a parliamentary majority. However, the stability and success of such a three-way coalition are uncertain, especially given Austria’s limited experience with such government formations.
Consequently, the ÖVP will find itself in the most powerful position in the aftermath of the 29 September election: with a far-right party that cannot come to power without it on one side, and mainstream parties that cannot prevent the far-right from governing without it on the other, the ÖVP holds the key to power and thus a bargaining chip.
Like in the past, it will coalition with the ones offering the most appealing offer in terms of power, ideological congruence and opportunity to implement its ‘vision’ for Austria.
As such, a relaunch of an ÖVP-FPÖ coalition currently seems like the most likely option — especially as ÖVP senior figures are already calling for a government with the far right, given their “good cooperation” at the regional level.
In that event, the People’s Party, having itself shifted to the right over the years, would once again not only help the far-right to power but be complicit in the undermining of Austrian liberal democracy, the erosion of norms and attacks against the rule of law – as they have in the past.
As such, the choice they make might determine the direction and future of Austrian democracy.
Gabriela Greilinger is a doctoral student and researcher at the University of Georgia, USA, in far-right politics, democracy, and political behaviour in Europe, with a focus on Austria and Hungary.
Gabriela Greilinger is a doctoral student and researcher at the University of Georgia, USA, in far-right politics, democracy, and political behaviour in Europe, with a focus on Austria and Hungary.