Tuesday

19th Feb 2019

Russian rouble in free fall over oil price, EU sanctions

  • It is the highest interest rate increase since 1998 (Photo: Alex F)

In a surprise announcement on Monday (15 December), the Russian central bank said it would raise its key interest rate to 17 percent from 10.5 percent.

The move is aimed at shoring up the tumbling currency as the Russian economy feels the pain of a low oil price - oil and gas are Russia's main exports - combined with US and EU sanctions over Russian involvement in the Ukrainian war.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Support quality EU news

Get instant access to all articles — and 18 year's of archives. 30 days free trial.

... or join as a group

It is the highest interest rate increase since 1998, when the Russian currency collapsed and the government defaulted on its debt, sending ripples throughout financial markets around the world.

“This decision is aimed at limiting substantially increased ruble depreciation risks and inflation risks,” the central bank said in a statement after its impromptu meeting.

The rouble lost 9.7 percent to 64.4 per US dollar on Monday alone, after having slid almost 50 percent this year in comparison to the dollar. One euro now buys 77 roubles, compared to 45 roubles in January.

About half of Russia's budget revenues come from oil and gas taxes and a quarter of its GDP is linked to the energy industry.

With the oil price having started to fall from above 100 US dollars a barrel in June to 60 dollars now, Russia's economy is feeling the pinch. On top of this comes the closed access to EU and US capital markets as part of the joint sanctions.

The central bank in Moscow expects the economy to contract by 4.5 to 4.7 percent next year if oil prices remain this low.

With the US and its ally Saudi Arabia determining the oil price, it is likely the squeeze will continue until Russian President Vladimir Putin reverses his course in Ukraine.

So far, he has kept a defiant stance and has offered amnesty to Russians who bring money - no matter how it was earned - back into their country.

Other forms of 'patriotic' support appear in hipster Moscow shops, with tshirts displaying the message "I support the rouble," as AP's Moscow correspondent has tweeted.

Opinion

Eastern Europe Matters

The foreign ministers of Sweden, Poland and the Czech Republic reflect on 10 years of the Eastern Partnership with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of MinistersMilestone for Nordic-Baltic e-ID
  2. Counter BalanceEU bank urged to free itself from fossil fuels and take climate leadership
  3. Intercultural Dialogue PlatformRoundtable: Muslim Heresy and the Politics of Human Rights, Dr. Matthew J. Nelson
  4. Platform for Peace and JusticeTurkey suffering from the lack of the rule of law
  5. UNESDASoft Drinks Europe welcomes Tim Brett as its new president
  6. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic ministers take the lead in combatting climate change
  7. Counter BalanceEuropean Parliament takes incoherent steps on climate in future EU investments
  8. International Partnership For Human RightsKyrgyz authorities have to immediately release human rights defender Azimjon Askarov
  9. Nordic Council of MinistersSeminar on disability and user involvement
  10. Nordic Council of MinistersInternational appetite for Nordic food policies
  11. Nordic Council of MinistersNew Nordic Innovation House in Hong Kong
  12. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic Region has chance to become world leader when it comes to start-ups

Latest News

  1. Trump right for once: Europe should take back foreign fighters
  2. EU should clarify rules for plant burgers and lab meat
  3. Italian populists could be second biggest force in EU parliament
  4. Merkel defends Russia ties, ridicules Trump on cars
  5. British MPs condemn Facebook CEO's misrule
  6. EU's chance to step up on Hungary and Poland
  7. ESA pushback against new EU space agency plan
  8. Sluggish procedure against Hungary back on table

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us