Listen: Nato’s response tested and the EU’s ‘drone wall’

Over the past two weeks, Russian drones and fighter jets have repeatedly strayed into Nato airspace, from Poland and Romania to Estonia, and possibly Denmark, near Copenhagen airport.

Nato chief Mark Rutte has called it a “dangerous pattern,” warning the alliance is ready to defend every inch of its territory.

But what is Russia trying to achieve with its incursions into Nato airspace and what options do these violations leave for the West?

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You can find the transcript here if you prefer reading:

Over the past two weeks, Russian drones and fighter jets have repeatedly strayed into Nato airspace, from Poland and Romania to Estonia, and possibly Denmark, near Copenhagen airport. Nato chief Mark Rutte has called it a “dangerous pattern,” warning the alliance is ready to defend every inch of its territory.

But what is Russia trying to achieve with its incursions into Nato airspace and what options do these violations leave for the West?

Denmark and Norway were forced to shut down their main airports following further drone incursions, while German jets scrambled to intercept a Russian reconnaissance plane flying unresponsive in neutral airspace. Days before, Russian MiG-31s flew over Estonia with their transponders switched off. Nato members are, now, signalling that the next time, Russian aircrafts might not leave so easily.

Even Donald Trump, who has questioned Nato's value in the past and seems to have a change of heart this week about the war in Ukraine, backed the idea this week. Speaking at the UN alongside Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he said Nato's countries should shoot down Russian planes if they enter their airspace.

Russia, of course, denies everything. But as analysts put it: we’re more likely to discover Paddington Bear is real than to find Moscow telling the truth about airspace violations.

Now, for Nato, this is about credibility. The alliance is built on the promise that an attack on one is an attack on all. If Russia can keep testing Nato's air defences without consequence, that promise starts to look flimsy. And that’s exactly the game the Kremlin is playing.

But there is a problem. Europe isn’t prepared. Recruiting multi million-euro jets to chase down cheap drones is hardly sustainable. In Poland, most of the nineteen drones that entered earlier this month weren’t even detected until they crashed. Defence officials openly admit there’s a glaring gap in Nato's ability to deal with drones which are small, low-flying, often made of plastic or wood, and hard to track on radar.

Meanwhile, Russia is deploying drones every single night in Ukraine. They cost Moscow near to nothing, but they drain Kyiv’s finances and its air defences. Europe has known about this vulnerability for years. Yet procurement has been slow, defence industries are reluctant to innovate cheaply, and governments are more comfortable kicking the can down the road. But that road has now run out.

What’s next?

Nato has launched “Operation Eastern Sentry,” sending extra jets and assets from Britain, France, Germany and Denmark to shore up the alliance’s skies. Estonia has gone further, calling a UN Security Council meeting and warning it will not tolerate another violation.

But Nato jets alone won’t fix the drone problem. That’s why EU defence ministers are floating the idea of a “drone wall”, a network of radars, cameras, and electronic warfare tools stretching across the eastern frontier. Brussels says the first detection systems could be ready within a year. A full defensive shield will take much longer.

For now, the message to Moscow is meant to be clear, the next incursion could be the last. But Russia is skilled at pushing limits until someone pushes back. The question for Nato is whether its leaders, Trump included, are ready to follow through on their words when the next drone or fighter jet crosses the line.