Macron told you so, again and again – but he's not convincing the French

When Donald Trump took office in January, with a mission to shake up the world order, European leaders seemed somewhat caught off guard — except for the French president Emmanuel Macron.

For him, it was as though he had been preparing for this geopolitical chaos from the very beginning, and now his stance has been proven right.

Since taking office in 2017, Macron has consistently advocated for the European Union to strengthen its independence — not only from China but, perhaps more crucially, from the United States, particularly in the face of the threat posed by Russia.

At that time, Trump was in his first presidency, and one of Macron’s initial actions was to invite his American counterpart to France, welcoming him with a grand display of military pomp.

He then extended a similarly lavish reception to Russian president Vladimir Putin at the Palace of Versailles.

This ongoing engagement with both leaders has only reinforced Macron’s conviction that Europe must assert its independence, with France at the helm.

Macron has also been vocal in his criticism of Nato.

“What we are currently experiencing is the brain death of Nato,” he said in a famous 2019 interview with The Economist, adding that Europe was standing on “the edge of a precipice” and needed to start thinking of itself strategically as a geopolitical power.

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he acknowledged the alliance’s worth. “The war [...] brings a clarification, and creates at our borders and on our European soil an unusual threat which gives a strategic clarification to Nato,” he said.

Yet, he did not entirely backtrack, adding: “I continue to think that we need to rebuild a new European order of security, and that the war today in Ukraine makes it even more indispensable.”

A little over a year ago, when Macron gave a speech at the Sorbonne, just as he had seven years earlier, he reiterated his message: “My message today is simple. Paul Valéry said, at the end of the First World War, that we now know our civilisations are mortal. We must be clear that our Europe today is mortal. It can die. It can die, and that depends entirely on our choices. But these choices must be made now.”

Now, a little over a year later, Macron can, more than ever say to his fellow European leaders: 'I told you so. You should have listened to me all along.' 

Footsteps of de Gaulle

It must be noted, however, that this stance is not solely Macron’s — it aligns with a very French position, and with former president Charles de Gaulle’s stance in 1966 when France left the military alliance in protest against US dominance.

Additionally, France has kept its nuclear arsenal outside of Nato cooperation — a capability specifically developed to avoid dependence on US nuclear weapons.

After the United Kingdom's exit from the EU, France remains the only EU country with an independent nuclear arsenal.

With an increasingly unpredictable US, Macron is leveraging this as a trump card when advocating for a more independent Europe, positioning France to protect other EU countries with its nuclear umbrella —an initiative he shares with UK prime minister Keir Starmer, the only other European nation also in possession of nuclear weapons. 

If this argument is convincing to many within the EU, it has not gained widespread support in France.

Leaders from the far-right, such as National Rally’s Jordan Bardella, have even called it “treason,” but the criticism spans the entire political spectrum.

This is Macron’s problem: while he may be convincing the EU, he is not convincing the French.

In early March, the French president delivered a televised speech, calling for unity in the face of Russia, which he described as a “threat to Europe” that “seems to know no borders.” 

Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian former prime minister, now deputy head of the Russian Security Council, mocked Macron by calling him “Micron” and claiming that he, unlike Russia, is not a threat since he’ll be “gone” by May 2027.

And in that, Medvedev has a point. France is a democracy, and Macron is not allowed to run for president a third time. Someone else will take his place.

And a not-so-impossible scenario is that just as Europe has switched to relying on France for defence instead of the US — due to the unpredictability of a Trump’s presidency — France could end up being led by far-right leader Marine Le Pen, a politician with ties to a party previously funded by Russian banks.