On 28 September, parliamentary elections will be held in Moldova.
While this may seem like a minor event on the EU’s periphery, its implications for Europe’s security and political cohesion are far-reaching.
Moldova, sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine, signed an association agreement with the EU in 2014, symbolising a commitment to reform and integration and the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) has vigorously pursued European integration since it came to office in 2021.
However, the PAS government led by president Maia Sandu is projected to lose significant ground in the upcoming parliamentary elections. This decline stems from domestic dissatisfaction with the party’s attitude and policies as well as ongoing interference by Russia.
This interference aims to undermine trust in Moldova’s institutions through corruption narratives and hybrid threats and increase electoral support for pro-Russian political parties.
The likely outcome is that PAS will be forced into a coalition with one of the pro-Russian opposition parties, groups that advocate distancing Moldova from Europe and often exhibit autocratic tendencies.
Such a coalition would almost certainly shift Moldova’s trajectory away from European alignment. This potential shift threatens the European Union’s interests on three key fronts: digital security, regional stability, and political cohesion.
Moldova has become a laboratory for Russian hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and large-scale disinformation campaigns.
This was evident in previous election cycles, where attempts at manipulation and foreign influence were widely documented.
We can expect similar, if not more, interference in the upcoming elections.
Should a pro-Russian party gain power, efforts to counter such threats are likely to weaken, or worse, be co-opted. A government with little incentive for transparency will likely tolerate or may even facilitate Russian influence operations.
As a result the focus of these destabilising tactics are likely to migrate westward, EU member states will increasingly become the target and we will see a rise in cyber intrusions, disinformation targeting democratic institutions, and interference in national elections.
Moldova plays a vital role in supporting Ukraine, both morally and practically, serving as a critical humanitarian and logistical corridor.
Even though it is Europe’s poorest country, it has hosted over 1.5 million refugees and absorbed over 100,000 for long-term stays. It also helped reroute grain shipments through its Danube ports, alleviating pressure on Ukraine’s blocked Black Sea routes.
Should Moldova pivot toward Moscow, Ukraine’s support structure will be weakened, undermining the EU’s eastern resilience.
More importantly, an ambivalent Moldova will erode the eastern buffer between the EU and hostile actors, increasing the risk of military provocations near EU borders.
This not only raises the stakes for Nato but also increases the likelihood that EU member states, especially those with Nato commitments, will be drawn into more direct responses.
Moldova’s democratic trajectory is also a symbolic battleground for the values underpinning the European project: democratic governance, rule of law, and respect for human rights.
A shift toward autocratic governance in Moldova would contribute to the broader erosion of these values in the EU’s neighbourhood.
This will further weaken the EU’s credibility as a global advocate for democracy and human rights and will complicate enlargement policy.
The EU’s failure to prevent democratic erosion in candidate countries like Georgia and Serbia has already dampened public enthusiasm for enlargement.
A similar trajectory in Moldova would not only complicate accession talks but could also bolster eurosceptic narratives in western Europe, where support for further expansion is increasingly fragile.
Moreover, such a shift will send a damaging message that democratic principles are negotiable, even in states that aspire to EU membership.
This narrative emboldens not only autocratic regimes abroad but also anti-democratic actors within EU borders. This will increasingly threaten internal cohesion.
Despite its internal challenges, the Moldovan population remains broadly supportive of European integration.
The upcoming elections are a decisive moment, not only for Moldova’s future but for the EU’s ability to safeguard its values and interests at a time of global democratic backsliding.
The EU must therefore continue to provide as much political and financial support as it can to fight Russian interference and ensure free and fair elections in Moldova.
Not just through election-monitoring and support for civil society watchdogs but also through its fights against disinformation and cybersecurity support.
A democratic, European-oriented Moldova is a stabilizing force on the Union’s eastern flank that helps safeguard our digital space, supports our geopolitical resilience, and defends the normative foundations of the European project.
This year, we turn 25 and are looking for 2,500 new supporting members to take their stake in EU democracy. A functioning EU relies on a well-informed public – you.
Amy Eaglestone is doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham and lecturer at Leiden University. She previously worked in democracy development, including for the UN, and her research focuses on democratisation in Moldova and Georgia, inclusive governance and the impact of international developments on democracy.
Amy Eaglestone is doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham and lecturer at Leiden University. She previously worked in democracy development, including for the UN, and her research focuses on democratisation in Moldova and Georgia, inclusive governance and the impact of international developments on democracy.