Moldova's EU referendum is facing Russian destabilisation

On 20 October, Moldovans will vote in a referendum on future membership of the European Union. A ‘yes’ vote will change Moldova’s constitution, but this referendum is about something much deeper.

It’s a moment for the people of Moldova to decide whether they see their country as part of the European family. The legitimacy of Moldova’s European journey will rest on this decision, making this vote a critical point in the nation’s history.

This referendum is not happening in a vacuum. The context in which it takes place makes it especially significant. Across Europe, faith in the European project is wavering. Germany’s recent state elections are an example of how extremist voices have gained ground in many countries, raising questions about the future of European unity.

At the same time, Moldova remains a battleground for the Russian manipulation machine, with efforts aimed at undermining democratic values and weakening Moldova’s ties to Europe. 

In such a tense environment, a ‘yes’ vote in this referendum would send a powerful message - a signal that the values of democracy, freedom, and unity are still alive. It would show that, despite external pressures, Moldova stands firm in its commitment to Europe.

One of the key challenges Moldova faces as it approaches polling day is the threat of foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI). At the Center for Strategic Communication, we recognise that disinformation is just one part of a broader strategy used by Russia to destabilise Moldova’s European ambitions. This strategy goes beyond fake news to a range of tactics designed to erode trust in Moldova’s European future — sowing doubt, presenting half-truths and manipulating facts.

Weaken social cohesion

This foreign interference is not just about influencing the referendum itself. The goal is to weaken the social cohesion needed to navigate the complex process of European integration. Moldova’s journey toward Europe won’t end with this vote - European integration requires years of hard work, tough decisions and significant changes. The country will need strong social unity to stay on course. That’s why foreign interference is so dangerous — it undermines the very foundation on which Moldova’s future rests.

The fight against FIMI is part of a broader, ongoing battle to protect democracy. In an age of instant communication and digital warfare, the threats to democracy have evolved. It’s no longer just about obvious propaganda; it’s about subtle manipulations aimed at weakening the bonds that hold societies together. This makes defending democracy a never-ending challenge, one that requires constant adaptation.

One of the key innovations in our fight against FIMI has been the strengthening of communication and cooperation between the state, independent media, and civil society. We call this a “whole-of-society” approach. The state alone cannot counter subtle manipulation and disinformation effectively; it needs the help of other credible voices. The media and civil society play crucial roles in shaping public opinion and building trust. Without their involvement, our efforts would be limited.

This collaboration is essential because trust in government has eroded over time. The state can provide the facts, but it’s the media and civil society that can help those facts resonate with the public. It’s about creating a unified front to counter the divisive forces of disinformation.

Even with the best communication strategy, building trust in Moldova’s democratic institutions will be a long and difficult journey. The answers aren’t new — they’re the same principles that have always underpinned democracy: transparency, honesty, and a strong justice system.

Moldova’s referendum is more than just a vote on European integration. It’s a test of the country’s resilience and unity in the face of external pressures. It’s a chance for the people of Moldova to show the world that they are committed to the values of democracy, freedom, and European unity. The road ahead will be difficult, but Moldova can overcome the challenges and secure its place in Europe.