How the EU can help today's new Taiwan president

On Monday (20 May), Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, who won the presidential election in Taiwan in January, inaugurates his presidency, amid heightened tensions between China’s (officially the People’s Republic of China, PRC) and Taiwan (officially the Republic of China, ROC).

Beijing claims that the island is one of its provinces, whereas the current Taiwanese government maintains that it is already an independent country.

A conflict over Taiwan – or even a Chinese blockade of the island – would have immediate economic and political implications for Europe. The EU is not a security actor in East Asia – however, it has some formidable – and unique – soft power assets that could be leveraged to promote dialogue and understanding between China and Taiwan.

Cross-Strait relations – the relations between the PRC and ROC –are currently at their lowest. Official lines of communication have been interrupted. Travel links between the two countries were frequent before the Covid-19 pandemic era – but no longer.

Many Taiwanese are now avoiding the mainland, while for many Chinese citizens it is almost impossible to travel to Taiwan for work, study or even tourism. A wall has been erected between the two sides, and each blames the other for this situation.

Beef noodles and bubble tea?

President Lai has repeatedly expressed his hope to re-establish communication with Beijing, based on equality and mutual respect. During the electoral campaign, Lai even said he hoped to meet with Xi Jinping over beef noodles and bubble tea.

On the other side of the Strait, the PRC’s leadership seems to recognise that it can no longer use economics to bring about unification and that the so-called ‘one country, two systems’ approach, after its failure in Hong Kong and the clear hostility toward it in Taiwan, no longer works.

While the possibility of an invasion of the island remains, President Xi Jinping has tasked Wang Huning, a member of the powerful CCP Politburo Standing Committee and China’s most senior official in charge of Taiwan’s policy, to come up with a new framework for unification.

As both China and Taiwan seek a thaw in their bilateral relations, it could be a perfect time for the EU to step up its involvement in Cross-Strait affairs to see whether dialogue and understanding can be increased, and tensions defused. The EU is not perceived as a threatening force and its image in East Asia is that of, mainly, a civilian actor that could facilitate dialogue in a way that other major players cannot.

European governments continue to abide by the “One China” policy – that is, the acknowledgement of Beijing’s position that there is only one Chinese government. Under this policy, the EU and its member states recognise and have formal ties with the PRC rather than Taiwan. In practice, however, EU institutions and European governments are treating Taiwan as a “de facto” independent state with which they are entitled to entertain economic and political relations.

The Europeans tend to avoid being confrontational vis-à-vis Beijing when it comes to Taiwan, contrary to the United States which does not shy away from openly provoking China. The EU has little real leverage on both Beijing and Washington regarding cross-strait relations.

While the maintenance of the status-quo is in the long-term interest of the EU, the defence of the island from an attack – or blockade – from the mainland is left to the care of the US and its Asian allies. What the EU can instead do is to leverage its soft power assets in the region.

Jean Monnet Centres of Excellence

The Jean Monnet Centres of Excellence (also called EU Centres) scattered in many countries, including in China and Taiwan, are an asset that Brussels could use to promote dialogue and understanding between the two sides of the Strait.

Managed by the European Commission, but with close links with the EU delegation in the host country, they aim to promote knowledge of the EU, its policies and values, through academic research, partnerships and programmes of public activities.

Since last year, due to heightened tensions, Chinese and Taiwanese scholars working at the EU Centres in their respective countries, are unable to meet. It would be in the strategic interest of the EU to step in and facilitate such a meeting among EU experts. And should such meeting be impossible to be held in either China or Taiwan for political reasons, the EU should offer to host it in Singapore, where there is a very active EU Centre.

It would not be the first time that the EU Centres would be leveraged by the EU to promote the reasons of dialogue and mutual understanding in the region. For instance, the EU delegation in Seoul has consistently backed the Trilateral Cooperation process, a consultative mechanism which involves China-Japan-South Korea, by supporting, both politically and financially, various workshops and initiatives organised for young students with the aim of promoting mutual understanding and the sense of friendship among future leaders of the three countries.

These activities are often supported by – and held at – the Jean Monnet Centres of Excellence located in the three north-east Asian nations.

Recent developments inside China and Taiwan should invite the EU to consider doing something similar in the context of cross-strait relations. The EU should start thinking ‘trilateral’: China-EU-Taiwan, finding ways to facilitate dialogue between Chinese and Taiwanese experts of the EU. By keeping it at the level of scholars and by focusing on EU studies (avoiding, at least officially, sensitive issues) it may overcome resistance from various quarters.

By doing that, the EU would make strategic use of some of its soft power capabilities. With little investment in terms of time and resources, it may contribute to dialogue and understanding in a region where, should tensions spiral out of control, the result could be very damaging not only for the EU, but for the entire world.