As Italy enters the final week of campaigning for its 4 December constitutional referendum, all bets are off on the outcome, but beware of easy assumptions.
A defeat for prime minister Matteo Renzi will not necessarily pave the way for the anti-establishment, anti-euro Five Star Movement (M5S) to take power, and a victory might be a short-lived success for the centre-left leader.
The referendum hinges on reforms that clip the powers of the upper chamber of parliament and of regio...
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Andrew Rettman is EUobserver's foreign editor, writing about foreign and security issues since 2005. He is Polish, but grew up in the UK, and lives in Brussels. He has also written for The Guardian, The Times of London, and Intelligence Online.