Among the many offerings Ursula von der Leyen dished out to seal her re-appointment was one largely under-reported one that can change Europe’s future — intergenerational fairness.
In her programme for a second stint in the European Commission’s top job, von der Leyen announced a new role to make sure that “decisions taken today do not harm future generations”. Although this is a founding principle in the EU’s treaties, long-term thinking tends to be neglected and certainly was during her first term.
The last five years were dominated by crisis response. From the Covid pandemic, to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to wildfires and floods, through energy price spikes and tariff wars, we faced an unprecedented number of emergencies. These multiple crises could have been better prepared for — and possibly even averted — with stronger ‘future-thinking’ as a backbone of policymaking.
Now the majority of initiatives proposed for the upcoming years remain reactive in nature, designed to deal with problems — in housing, in skills, in industry, in defence — in more siloed, short-termist ways.
What is different, and promising, about a role focused on intergenerational fairness is that it is proactive – it’s a way to shape the future, not only deal with things when they happen
The European Parliament’s president Roberta Metsola is one of the people who has called for a change of gear. “We need to move from being in ‘crisis mode’ to thinking long term”, she said.
With a Commissioner responsible for intergenerational thinking the call may have been answered. But intergenerational fairness is more than just an add-on. It needs to be embedded across decision-making. To fundamentally shape Europe’s long-term prosperity and the wellbeing of its people we need to consistently think far enough ahead while we have the chance.
Take the persistent challenge of socio-economic deprivation; figures from the IMF show that childhood poverty has increased by almost 20 percent in the EU since 2020. It is also proven that childhood poverty increases the risk of poverty in adulthood. So to stop more and more Europeans’ lives being blighted by poverty an intergenerational perspective is imperative.
Yet current strategies and policymaking horizons extend to mid-century, at best. We have succeeded to set long-term goals in the climate arena, but in other areas, like health, technology, and social policy, the thinking is systematically shorter-term.
The European Commission is well-placed to benefit from ‘future thinking’. Over the last years it has significantly strengthened its foresight capabilities and built-up a wealth of evidence about possible shocks and opportunities in the different ‘futures’ we face. The problem is, this is not yet sufficiently informing the policy process.
The EU institutions have also developed their understanding of demographic change across all regions, and conducted exercises to listen to the diversity of wishes and concerns of people, like the Conference on the Future of Europe. But this wealth of intelligence is a treasure trove left unopened.
It would be a mistake to think that continuation — of the strategic foresight and demography functions — is enough. Uncertainty and polycrisis call for even more use of foresight. And social and regional polarization require us to do more than listen and understand, but to be able to plan ahead and act.
A new commissioner responsible for intergenerational thinking needs to be given the teeth to embed a long-view perspective horizontally. They should have the power to scrutinize all proposals, reforms and investments for their long-term implications, and to make binding recommendations for the long-term interest.
They should also take leadership on citizen engagement so that the vision of the future of Europe is shaped by its people. They could build bridges between the European institutions and the public through participation processes like citizen assemblies. Then make sure there is a whole-of-government approach to delivering on the shared vision.
Around the world, more governments and institutions are centring future generations in decision-making.
Wales was the first country to appoint a dedicated commissioner, and other international models exist for formalizing future thinking. A United Nations Summit in September is expected to create a special envoy for future generations. With a strong mandate, the EU Commissioner for Intergenerational Fairness can put the EU ahead of the curve.
Few people know better the difference a person responsible for future generations can make than Sophie Howe, who served as the ‘world’s first minister for future generations’ for seven years in Wales. She has called for the new appointment to be at executive vice president level to give future generations the importance they deserve.
A new role to lead on intergenerational thinking in the next commission is certainly promising. But a ‘find and replace’ exercise swapping ‘foresight’ and ‘demography’ with ‘intergenerational fairness’ will not be a ticket out of permacrisis. If a new role is given leadership power to embed long-term thinking across decision-making, then it can shape the future for the better.
Elizabeth Dirth is the managing director of ZOE Institute for Future-Fit Economies in Cologne, Germany, a think-tank focussing on bringing new economic thinking in to public policy.
Elizabeth Dirth is the managing director of ZOE Institute for Future-Fit Economies in Cologne, Germany, a think-tank focussing on bringing new economic thinking in to public policy.