The year is 2030. Across Europe, vibrant farmers’ markets teem with fresh, sustainably produced food.
Young farmers are accessing affordable land to build their futures — while schoolchildren are nourished by healthy, climate-friendly, free school meals.
Farmers’ incomes are beginning to grow again, as fairer prices and public money flow to smaller players. Farms act as havens for biodiversity while creating decent jobs. Although extreme storms, heat, and flooding have worsened, farms are more diverse and better equipped to weather these shocks.
This is not a utopia. It’s the result of collective commitment and bold European leadership.
Now imagine a different 2030. Europe’s agrifood policy has failed to rise to the challenge, and the consequences are stark.
Farmers face greater financial precarity than ever – squeezed by big agri monopolies, skyrocketing input costs, competition from South America, and stagnating farmgate prices.
Ultra-processed foods dominate supermarket shelves, driving health crises and rising healthcare costs. Extreme weather is devastating farms, which are ever less able to cope – while biodiversity continues to be wrecked. Climate change and fossil energy dependency propel food prices higher, pushing many people toward populist far-right politicians.
These two futures hinge on the choices of Christophe Hansen, Europe’s new agriculture commissioner. As he takes office, he inherits an extraordinary opportunity – and an equally extraordinary responsibility.
The good news? Hansen has a clear mandate to deliver the transformative reforms that are so urgently needed. Pressure from farmers’ protests has made reform unavoidable.
The ‘Strategic Dialogue on the future of EU agriculture’ that followed – bringing together farmers, food manufacturers, civil society, rural communities, and academia – has forged consensus around a whole menu of reform options.
Public surveys show strong support for change – with two-thirds of Belgians backing a ban on unhealthy food marketing; and 30 percent of Spaniards ranking sustainable food among their top five EU priorities. This is a golden opportunity to act.
The commission’s promised ‘vision for agriculture and food’ due to be unveiled within its 100 days, will set the tone for the next five years. By embracing the Strategic Dialogue recommendations, commissioner Hansen can lay the groundwork for a transformation that benefits European farmers, workers, consumers, and the planet.
The path forward demands clear priorities and bold action.
Farmers are being squeezed by monopolies on all sides – struggling to earn fair prices in a system rife with unfair trading practices. They buy inputs at retail prices, sell their produce at wholesale prices, and lack bargaining power.
A European-wide framework requiring buyers to negotiate prices with producers through their sectoral organizations, and ensuring farmers receive twice the living wage for their work, is essential to redress these inequities.
A robust Agri-Food Chain Observatory can bring the transparency needed to expose and tackle market abuses.
Such measures would empower farmers, secure their livelihoods, and properly value their indispensable contributions to our food system.
Farmers cannot shoulder the burden of transitioning to sustainable practices alone. Europe must boost demand for sustainably produced food, creating a fairer playing field for farmers and better outcomes for consumers.
Reduced VAT on sustainable food products, better food labelling, and stronger rules on marketing unhealthy foods can curb the dominance of ultra-processed foods.
The new farm chief can also take inspiration from innovative ‘social security for food’ trials in France and Belgium, and the pioneering work of cities and regions to provide healthy and sustainable school meals.
EU commissioner Hansen has rightly made climate resilience a priority. The devastating floods in Valencia (which wiped out thousands of hectares of citrus, persimmons and vines, following years of punishing drought) show Europe’s farms are increasingly exposed to extreme weather.
But resilience cannot be built without generational renewal.
Nearly one-third of Europe’s farmers are over 65, and young farmers are locked out by sky-high land prices, which have tripled in parts of Eastern Europe over the last 15 years.
Without action, farmland risks being consolidated into industrial contract operations that exploit rather than steward the land, reducing farmers to gig workers.
Redirecting taxpayers’ money in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to smaller, diversified farms would not only support new entrants but also bolster biodiversity and climate resilience.
A dedicated Agri-Food Just Transition Fund – a key recommendation from the Strategic Dialogue – could also help farmers transition to more sustainable practices.
Systemic change requires systemic collaboration. Establishing a European Board on Agri-Food is critical to fostering cooperation across the entire food system.
Farmers large and small, processors, retailers, consumers, workers, and civil society must all have a seat at the table. This board can ensure decisions are inclusive, balanced, and actionable, turning the consensus forged in the Strategic Dialogue into reality.
Clear benchmarks are equally essential. Harmonised sustainability assessments with common metrics, tailored to regional action plans, could provide a shared compass for navigating trade-offs and measuring success. These steps can pave the way for a joined-up ‘common food policy’ for Europe.
Luxembourg's Hansen has a chance to deliver not just a ‘vision’ but a legacy.
The choices made in the next five years will shape the future of Europe’s food systems for decades to come.
Let 2030 be the year we look back and say: this was the moment Europe got the recipe right.
Olivier De Schutter is the co-chair of the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems (IPES-Food), public intellectual, and UN special rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights.
Olivier De Schutter is the co-chair of the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems (IPES-Food), public intellectual, and UN special rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights.