EUobserver breaks down geoeconomics, key elections, defence, climate, migration, technology, and social tensions in a shorter version of our must-read long-form analysis published today.
2025 was defined by geoeconomics: power is exercised through trade, finance, technology, and supply chains rather than armies. Europe has been slow to respond to the American mix of military pressure and economic aggression, with tech giants lobbying to weaken EU rules, and China's economic scale, controlling supply chains and rare earths.
But in 2026, the 27-nation bloc will likely shift toward industrial policy, electrification, selective protectionism, and critical raw material strategies.
The Brussels effect, enforcing EU rules globally, remains a key tool, though some rules may be watered down under US pressure, setting the stage for political fights in 2026.
Hungary votes in April, potentially challenging Viktor Orbán’s long rule.
Other EU votes include Portugal, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Latvia, Denmark, Slovenia, Germany, and Sweden, alongside referendums and presidential elections.
Outside the EU, UK local elections will test Keir Starmer’s weakened Labour leadership and confirm far-right Reform UK’s surge, while Armenia faces Russian interference. Iceland’s referendum may also gather momentum.
As far-right influence grows, keep an eye on British Nigel Farage, AfD gains in Germany, especially in Saxony and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while France braces for positioning ahead of the 2027 presidential election amid National Rally tensions.
Meanwhile, Ukraine now has €90bn in EU support, facing US pressure to negotiate with Russia. Peacekeeping forces may be deployed, but Russian offensives and refugee flows remain serious risks.
In the EU, defence industrial capacity, joint procurement, Arctic militarisation, and Nato cohesion will dominate 2026, with key deals signalling shifting alliances.
As usual, traditional talks over the next EU budget (for 2027-2034) pit “frugal” north against southern and eastern states, with key questions over size, revenue sources, and recovery fund repayments.
Bulgaria's euro adoption in 2026 comes despite political upheaval, raising questions about whether economic gains can offset ongoing instability.
At the same time, EU asylum laws face their first real trial in June, as incomplete systems and reception gaps put the bloc’s solidarity pool to the test.
Enlargement will be high on the EU's agenda this year. Montenegro and Albania may close accession talks, but Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia, Republika Srpska, and Turkey continue to obstruct other candidates.
AI regulation is expected to advance, although rules for the so-called high-risk will be delayed to 2027. Europe's investments in AI infrastructure and digital sovereignty are expected to grow, while enforcing Big Tech rules under the Digital Services Act will keep raising tensions in transatlantic relations.
Likewise, energy security will dominate 2026, despite increased US energy reliance. Energy efficiency, renewables, the EU's carbon border tax, and the ETS expansion to the maritime sector, expanding the scope to cover methane emission will also play a central role in shaping Europe’s climate and industrial strategy.
As the US prioritises business over climate in its G20 presidency, pressure will grow to scrap the annual COP summits entirely at COP31 in Turkey amid UN restructuring and shrinking development budgets. Watch this space, as incumbent António Guterres is set to stand down at the end of 2026.
Cost-of-living pressures, social unrest, rollbacks of rights, and housing crises shape 2026 politics. Initiatives on abortion rights remain pending.
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This article highlights the most important information from our long-form exploration of 2026 – read that here.
This article highlights the most important information from our long-form exploration of 2026 – read that here.