With the future of Ukraine’s peace at a crossroads, 4.5 million Ukrainians who fled to the European Union (EU) are wondering what the future holds for them. Can they stay here? Will they be forced to return? Many of those I have met are torn: they miss their homeland deeply, but they have also built new lives in exile — working, raising families, and contributing to their communities.
Ukrainians are trying to understand their options: how to extend their stay to remain legally in the Union by turning their temporary protection into something more permanent.
The EU’s Temporary Protection Directive — which gave Ukrainians the right to live, work, and access essential services without having to apply for asylum — is set to expire in March 2026.
That may sound far off, but with less than a year before governments start preparing for a transition, many refugees are already anxious.
And rightly so — because this week (12-13 June), EU interior ministers will decide whether to extend their temporary protection.
The uncertainty is taking a toll. As one Ukrainian mother asked me, “Does Europe still stand in solidarity with us?”
Right now, returning to Ukraine is simply not safe — full stop.
Intensified Russian attacks have led to a staggering rise in civilian casualties compared to last year with missiles and drones hitting homes, hospitals or schools across the entire country, including Kyiv. Despite the risks, many have spontaneously returned already, and countless others have decided to stay put.
Even if a ceasefire were declared tomorrow — or even a fragile peace reached — many Ukrainians fear it would not last.
At the UN Refugee Agency, we believe conditions in Ukraine are not yet safe or stable enough to support large-scale returns. Most refugees express a strong desire to go home.
But many at the same time are concerned about potential insecurity back home; some wonder whether they will have the means to rebuild their home, whether they will have access to electricity and water, schooling or medical care. Refugees need help for as long as they are away from home.
The risks are real: what about the landmines still scattered across agricultural fields? The schools and hospitals that lie in ruins? And the deep trauma suffered by so many — especially children and women who have lost loved ones?
Some of those who have gone back have found themselves without jobs, healthcare, or other basic services. For vulnerable people such as widowed mothers, families with disabled children or elderly without any family support, going back too soon puts them at risk – and their communities would not be able to cope with their needs.
This is why we are urging EU countries to extend temporary protection at least until March 2027.
The current system has worked well. It gave Ukrainians safety and stability – and allowed them to contribute to the communities that welcomed them. They have found jobs, paid taxes, sent their kids to schools, and became our neighbours.
But the EU cannot stop here. What about those who might not be able to return, even after peace? Those coming from territories that may remain occupied by the Russian Federation? What about those who hope to stay, as they have become part of the communities that have welcomed them and are sending remittances to help Ukraine’s reconstruction?
It is time to think long term.
Ukrainians need real solutions –permanent residency or work permits, or full refugee status where needed – and further efforts to bring a just peace to their homeland and investments to help its reconstruction to sustain returns.
These are no longer just “refugees.” They are colleagues, classmates, and community members. They deserve clear answers – and dignity. For those who do choose to go back, they need time, support, and safety to do so when the moment is right.
This is a defining moment. Europe has a chance to lead by example – not just in responding to a crisis, but in shaping what comes after. By offering Ukrainians genuine choices about their future, we can help them keep building their lives – whether that’s here in Europe or one day back in a peaceful Ukraine.
This year, we turn 25 and are looking for 2,500 new supporting members to take their stake in EU democracy. A functioning EU relies on a well-informed public – you.