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Who are the most likely candidates for secession in Russia's south, east, and centre? (Photo: Wikimedia)

If Russia collapses — which states will break away?

Increasingly, analysts — both inside and outside of Russia — are considering the possibility of the Russian Federation's collapse and transformation into a series of independent states.

Russia's disastrous war with Ukraine is straining an already weak economy, undermining the legitimacy and strength of the regime, exposing the Russian armed forces as a paper tiger, and weakening Vladimir Putin's standing among the elites.

At some poin...

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